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To a certain extent, all of us will wrestle with denial for a period of time because the alternative is frightening. Being prepared allows up to grasp on to a solid center core and gives us a better chance to move forward.
Great observation! Fear does play a large part in it. If you convince yourself that "it can't happen", then your fear level decreases. Normalcy prevails...until it doesn't. I think a lot of people are comforted by such thoughts. So much so, that they will angrily lash out at those of us who warn them otherwise, because it causes their fear levels to rise. Fear is a negative emotion; it causes pain. But it can also save lives.
Fear and Flight is what kept our hunter/gatherer ancestors alive.
I think both have been bred out of the modern population, the only thing they fear is losing their jobs, and therefore not being able to have their twice annual foreign holiday, or buying the latest gadget or bling, not there being no food in the shops.
I think he greatest instance of normalcy bias occurs when things get worse incrementally, in small steps, rather than going south all at once.....Those who got out when they could were clearly listening to some inner intuition and going against the grain of the "conventional" thinking around them that surely things were not going to get that bad. By the time the truth was clear cut enough for most people to perceive it, it was too late.
Very true! How many people in this country are detecting "incremental" losses to our freedoms, our prosperity, our ability to live as we see fit? It's a very effective strategy on the part of any group intent upon changing a society, for the worse. That, and 'divide and conquer', which is also happening here in a big way.
I believe we all have the ability to "listen to that inner intuition". A great many of us choose not to, due to the pain and discomfort that often causes. "Until it was too late" - famous last words.
if the events are "slow" events and incremental, it could be a long time down the road before it becomes obvious to most, by then it will be far too late.
Being a person with the thought that it will be a "long emergency or slow collapse" with some areas of the country/world doing better than others, my normalcy bias might be more intact and will look different than folks that are readying for sudden disaster.
I didn't answer the situational awareness thread except for a dog anecdote because I hadn't had time to think that through as it pertains to me. Having thought about it, I tend to see things well down the road (especially trends in real estate and fashion) and have put that to use personally but when it comes to the trend of the planet and world economies, I really would hate to be right but I think I am and my track record is pretty darn good. Yet I also battle normalcy bias. The sun rises, my DH makes our morning latte, we get dressed and carry on with the agenda of the day much of the time it's just day to day living.
Ogend brings up points well worth considering (though I understand that he aggravates many here) and I do ponder them. I always debate myself and poke holes in my assumptions or try to. It occurs to me that we are investing a great deal of our personal net worth into this property, creating a place where we have food and water security, renewable energy and physical safety. I am taking on faith to some degree that in the future, this type of property will be extremely valuable to either my family or in the case that we have aged and need to move on, to another family, one I'd like to preselect before that time comes.
My normalcy bias kicks in when I think that we could live in Italy for a year or travel the world rather than do this preparation for a world of shortages. It's tempting of course to chuck it all, live in a loft in the heart of an exciting city, travel, buy art, sail etc. and if I had real wealth I might do both, prepare an ark in a favorable location and live a large portion of my life on vacation but I've been forced to choose to a large extent though clearly my heart is in both worlds. I fully understand that with population pressures, dwindling resources and the damage that we've done to our planet, life as we have created it can't continue indefinitely or even much longer which I think is more accurate. Knowing what is down the road was a very large part of our leaving Alaska knowing how dependent much of it is on the shipping in of outside resources, even with it's relatively low population and large land mass if it should be cut off, things would really get ugly which is another topic altogether.
My extended family sees what's coming to varying degrees and are preparing accordingly. One member says they will just come out to family property should TSHTF and while that's crappy, DH is a physician and will add obvious value to the community so they can do that. I suppose we could too. DH is very clever and what he can't fix, build, do, I can. Yet it's not my style to impose or not pay my way. Right now we have the majority of our weight on the foot that is preparing this property to sustain life and the other lightly in the world of travel and leisure. That is likely the normalcy bias at work.
I often wondered why the Jewish community did not leave Germany. A large part of it was normalcy bias. The old example of boiling frogs. Warm the pan slowly and the frog senses no danger. The pan warmed slowly and the hated Jews got used to a new normal until it was too late. Some left at the last minute before they weren't allowed to travel but they left indigent and with limited (shamefully our own) countries willing to take them unless they had family ties in that country willing to sponsor them. The pan is warming slowly today IMO.
Having had a chaotic childhood I am prone to be alert to subtle shifts in dynamics that might signal the need to get on the move, dig in or take cover and that tendency usually overcomes normalcy bias. What normal people might take note of and then forget are klaxons of warning to me. However I do challenge those klaxons to be sure I'm not overreacting and to keep my decision making clear.
BTW, I've seen the paralysis first hand. My career was air traffic control and I worked in a busy terminal facility (tower) where I personally worked through a number of emergencies, some fatal. My personal background equipped me to be especially effective in those emergencies. About half of our otherwise good controllers essentially froze in disbelief while for me, time seemed to slow down like it does in movies and everything was extremely clear so I was able to think and act properly through the crisis (as did others like me) delaying the shock for afterward. We just moved the frozen out of the way and carried on until it was all over or they recovered their wits. I'm sure this happens on battlefields on police beats and in emergency rooms the world over. My temperament and early experiences have trained me personally to be really good in crisis. Essentially you want me on that wall...
I rarely if ever discuss our plans except for here anonymously. I really don't care what anyone thinks as I'm used to being considered offbeat so that doesn't worry me all that much. If I do rarely have the conversation with another person that believes that the world "is going to hell in a handcart" and they bring up preparing, they are often shocked that we might be as far or further down the road than they are as we are perceived as being liberal intellectuals and lightweights our Alaska experiences notwithstanding. We don't fit the mold which of course is fine with me. And I won't get into specifics even here. My DH and I only are aware of what we have either in mind or in play. Some workmen hired to do jobs only know their portion of the job such as water storage systems. Our handyman knows only part that he sees. It's just smart to not show all of your hand. They see the "river" but not the cards we are holding.
I'm wired to notice incremental changes. I have more trouble discussing that with people than getting them to understand self-sufficiency/preparedness. RogueMom described it well.
People have different levels of intuition and all of us are prone to normalcy bias on some level. The incident Nor' described in the other thread was normalcy bias.
Most (or all) of us even have some level of normalcy bias in our disaster plans. For example, one poster has settled into something of a routine after a disaster. He has come to expect the same type of disaster; that the community will react in a certain way; and that he will always have access to supplies.
I think we all have to be honest with ourselves and periodically assess our lifestyles and plans for normalcy bias.
I'm not convinced that normalcy bias can be eliminated entirely, but the capacity to adapt quickly to the unexpected can overcome that human flaw.
I think being preppers or survivalists, we are in some way always looking for that tell tale sign that shows something is happening or is about to happen, whereas the ordinary population will not be aware of it until much later, if at all.
I do think most people have their heads in the sand, and only think about their own little lifestyle, they do not see the bigger picture or as my wife says "they are only thinking what they are going to give the kids for tea tonight".
Yet I also battle normalcy bias. The sun rises, my DH makes our morning latte, we get dressed and carry on with the agenda of the day much of the time it's just day to day living.
We live this way as well. You pretty much have to, or it would consume your soul. Carry on with life, but once in awhile, do a little preparing or add something to your plans for self-sufficiency. I don't see it as an "all or nothing" proposition; I don't have a finger in the wind every day. But it is in the back of my mind. I just tend to mentally "file" little things here and there, until some sort of image begins to appear. Great thoughts!
In my opinion, most people fall in between the following two extremes: one is seeing the forest for the trees and the other one is seeing only the trees and not being aware there is a forest. The former are great at the high level reasoning and predictions but usually useless at execution and the latter may be great at execution but unaware of the big picture. Most population falls somewhere between the two, it is probably a bell shaped distribution.
Hence, you have people who will make the following (offensive to many) statement:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigpaul
I think both have been bred out of the modern population, the only thing they fear is losing their jobs, and therefore not being able to have their twice annual foreign holiday, or buying the latest gadget or bling, not there being no food in the shops.
Of course, there are people who will be in total denial that fit the above quote fully but there will be folks who have spent their whole lives making their own lives difficult with essentially artificial constraints (MUST have manual well pump, MUST have $10,000 worth of MREs, MUST have guns and ammo for 12 moths or more, MUST have a bunker, MUST live away from services in case an event of probability 0.00001% happens", so on and so on.
Balance is really what today's society lacks. It comes from an essential truth: dwindling resources and increased competition for said resources, due to increasing population. The world is getting smaller.
The United States in the last 10 years is a prime example of a civilized society that is losing balance. The rift between rich and poor, republican and democrat, prepper and "rat race participant" etc. etc. is so wide that the two sides are not talking to each other anymore. People openly hate each other for their convictions. Heck, look at this forum.
To me the modern prepper/self-sufficiency person does what they can and the ones that are successful are the ones who can strike that balance. Be ready for something but not everything, within budget but not break the bank, sufficiently but not to the point where it dictates day to day life and lifestyle (where you have to give up too much for too little of a benefit), within reason but not let it consume you.
In my humble opinion and as we see on this forum, balance is what is lacking. Normalcy bias, by definition, is related to that - if you enjoy a self-sufficiency lifestyle for the right reasons (as balanced lifestyle) - you will avoid the bias as it will exist in a different universe.
Anyways, hope this makes sense - feel free to hate as you usually do.
People have different levels of intuition and all of us are prone to normalcy bias on some level....I think we all have to be honest with ourselves and periodically assess our lifestyles and plans for normalcy bias.
Yes, I think we have to factor it in. Just be honest about it, and realize that it's there. People should stop worrying about others calling them 'paranoid' or 'wacko'. There will always be others of that opinion. Go with what is in your gut, if you find that your gut is frequently right. Trust yourself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigpaul
I think being preppers or survivalists, we are in some way always looking for that tell tale sign that shows something is happening or is about to happen...
In many ways you can train yourself to be more in tune with current events and the reactions of others to those events. At the same time, you do need to pay attention to what to give the kids at tea time!
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