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Old 02-02-2010, 01:50 PM
 
228 posts, read 498,299 times
Reputation: 187

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Here are the current odds to win the World Cup.

Putting a little $$$ on 3 teams.
Interested to hear what you guys would do.

Among the "contenders" ...
Germany (12-1): my favorite team since childhood (although I'm not German); each and every year, they're anywhere from good to elite
Italy (11-1): have always been a fan of their style of play (defensive, possession-oriented; grew up playing that kind of soccer)

Among the "underdogs" ...
Greece (60-1): actually a solid team (2004 European Champs); surprisingly, they're a very physical and tough team

Odds to win World Cup:
Spain (9-2)
Brazil (5-1)
England (11-2)
Argentina (9-1)
Italy (11-1)
Germany (12-1)
France (13-1)
Netherlands (13-1)
Portugal (20-1)
Ivory Coast (20-1)
Chile (30-1)
Ghana (40-1)
Serbia (40-1)
United States (40-1)
Paraguay (40-1)
Uruguay (50-1)
South Africa (50-1)
Nigeria (50-1)
Mexico (50-1)
Denmark (50-1)
Cameroon (50-1)
Australia (60-1)
Greece (60-1)
Slovakia (100-1)
Switzerland (100-1)
South Korea (150-1)
Slovenia (150-1)
Japan (150-1)
Algeria (200-1)
Honduras (200-1)
Korea (200-1)
New Zealand (200-1)
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Old 02-02-2010, 02:38 PM
 
921 posts, read 909,531 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by healthpub View Post
Here are the current odds to win the World Cup.

Putting a little $$$ on 3 teams.
Interested to hear what you guys would do.

Among the "contenders" ...
Germany (12-1): my favorite team since childhood (although I'm not German); each and every year, they're anywhere from good to elite
Italy (11-1): have always been a fan of their style of play (defensive, possession-oriented; grew up playing that kind of soccer)

Among the "underdogs" ...
Greece (60-1): actually a solid team (2004 European Champs); surprisingly, they're a very physical and tough team

Odds to win World Cup:
Spain (9-2)
Brazil (5-1)
England (11-2)
Argentina (9-1)
Italy (11-1)
Germany (12-1)
France (13-1)
Netherlands (13-1)
Portugal (20-1)
Ivory Coast (20-1)
Chile (30-1)
Ghana (40-1)
Serbia (40-1)
United States (40-1)
Paraguay (40-1)
Uruguay (50-1)
South Africa (50-1)
Nigeria (50-1)
Mexico (50-1)
Denmark (50-1)
Cameroon (50-1)
Australia (60-1)
Greece (60-1)
Slovakia (100-1)
Switzerland (100-1)
South Korea (150-1)
Slovenia (150-1)
Japan (150-1)
Algeria (200-1)
Honduras (200-1)
Korea (200-1)
New Zealand (200-1)
Come on England!!!
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Old 02-08-2010, 08:13 AM
 
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
580 posts, read 861,997 times
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I think Germany's odds changed. I am almost sure I saw them having better odds than Italy.

Italy at 11/1 is a must bet. I don't see them having too mancy chances to win, as they have too many internal problems with the team and coach Lippi has alienated both players (most) and press, so a lot of people in Italy are just waiting for the team to fail so that Lippi can be fired.
However, historically Italy does great when underrated or troubled and - as said - at 11/1 they are worth a couple of hundred bucks.

I dont' know if the above are official odds, because some odds seem different than what many sportsbook have; or maybe the odds have been adjusted.
I'd consider England as a possible surprise and like the team, but they are too "famous" among oddsmakers and in the USA bookmakers know that many people would put money on England just because that's the European team Americans like the most. That causes England's odds to be not so great (11/2 is not what you'd expect for a team who hasn't won in ages and looks good but not exceptional).
I will still consider England, but I would probably use an European book as the odds are higher there for England.
Also Germany has good odds at 12/1; Germany is another team (like Italy) that might not be spectacular but knows how to perform in big stage venues. 12/1 is pretty generous, so I might consider.
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Old 02-08-2010, 01:28 PM
 
228 posts, read 498,299 times
Reputation: 187
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoItaly View Post
I think Germany's odds changed. I am almost sure I saw them having better odds than Italy.

Italy at 11/1 is a must bet. I don't see them having too mancy chances to win, as they have too many internal problems with the team and coach Lippi has alienated both players (most) and press, so a lot of people in Italy are just waiting for the team to fail so that Lippi can be fired.
However, historically Italy does great when underrated or troubled and - as said - at 11/1 they are worth a couple of hundred bucks.

I dont' know if the above are official odds, because some odds seem different than what many sportsbook have; or maybe the odds have been adjusted.
I'd consider England as a possible surprise and like the team, but they are too "famous" among oddsmakers and in the USA bookmakers know that many people would put money on England just because that's the European team Americans like the most. That causes England's odds to be not so great (11/2 is not what you'd expect for a team who hasn't won in ages and looks good but not exceptional).
I will still consider England, but I would probably use an European book as the odds are higher there for England.
Also Germany has good odds at 12/1; Germany is another team (like Italy) that might not be spectacular but knows how to perform in big stage venues. 12/1 is pretty generous, so I might consider.
Great post.
You're right about the odds varying.
These odds came from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC)- unofficial odds, in other words.
The SportsBooks ("official" odds) will vary slightly- they tend to use the LVSC odds more as a reference.

I agree with you about England.
Always a solid team, but not a lot of value at 11-2.

With respect to "contenders," best value (a very good team with greater than 10-1 odds), IMO, is Germany (my favorite team since childhood; always tough and fundamentally sound) and Italy (always strong defensive and possession-oriented play).

With respect to "underdogs," best value (a solid team with greater than 30-1 odds), IMO, is Greece (physical and experienced).

Last edited by healthpub; 02-08-2010 at 02:05 PM..
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Old 02-08-2010, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Cook County
5,288 posts, read 6,362,931 times
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Slovenia at 150-1? Thats like printing money! Seriously though, thanks for posting this, I am a big sports better, but I have never bet the world cup. That will change this year, although I will stay away from futures (except for the obligatory 50 dollars on USA) and try to bet game to game.

I would also be interested to see the historical odds on the World Cup, since the gap between the haves and have nots is just so huge. Has a team ever been like 2-1 or 3-2 to win? Who is the longest shot to win (based on odds)?
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Old 02-09-2010, 01:07 AM
 
228 posts, read 498,299 times
Reputation: 187
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
Slovenia at 150-1? Thats like printing money! Seriously though, thanks for posting this, I am a big sports better, but I have never bet the world cup. That will change this year, although I will stay away from futures (except for the obligatory 50 dollars on USA) and try to bet game to game.

I would also be interested to see the historical odds on the World Cup, since the gap between the haves and have nots is just so huge. Has a team ever been like 2-1 or 3-2 to win? Who is the longest shot to win (based on odds)?
2002 (unofficial) World Cup Odds:
France (3/1)
Argentina (9/2)
Italy (5/1)
Brazil (6/1)
Spain (8/1)
Portugal (14/1)
England (9/1)
Germany (20/1)
Turkey (100/1)
Korea Republic (150/1)
USA (250/1)
Semifinals:
Germany beats South Korea 1-0
Brazil beats Turkey 1-0
Final:
Brazil beats Germany 2-0

2006 (unofficial) World Cup Odds:
Brazil (5/2)
Argentina (13/2)
Germany (7/1)
England (7/1)
Netherlands (12/1)
Italy (17/2)
France (10/1)
Spain (14/1)
Portugal (19/1)
USA (70/1)
Semifinals:
Italy beats Germany 2-0
France beats Portugal 1-0
Final:
Italy beats France in penalty kicks

Back to 2010 ...
My thoughts regarding the contenders:
(1) Spain (9/2) is explosive, but they are chronic underachievers
(2) Brazil (5/1) always dangerous (great individual talent combined with good speed/height/toughness), but they sometimes lack focus and play too much as individuals
(3) Argentina (9/1) has the best player in the world (Lionel Messi), but, physically, they tend to be a small team (which can wear on them)
(4) Italy (11/1) plays great defensive/possession-ball and has one of the best "point-guards" (Andrea Pirlo) in the world, but there seems to be quite a bit of in-fighting
(5) Germany (12/1) always fundamentally sound/disciplined, has good individual talent, and always a tall/physical team, but sometimes too young/sometimes too old
(6) France (13/1) is OK, but they no longer have Zinedine Zidane (one of the best players to ever play the game)
(7) Netherlands (13/1) (like Spain) is a chronic underachiever
(8) Portugal (20/1) is talented, but, IMO, too many fancy-boys on that team

Last edited by healthpub; 02-09-2010 at 01:24 AM..
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Old 02-09-2010, 08:26 AM
 
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
580 posts, read 861,997 times
Reputation: 892
Healthpub, I pretty much agree with your thoughts on the contenders.
In one of your post you talked about possible longshots and mentioned Greece. I have another name for that: Chile. They play an uptempo, fast football, good technique with solid defense and they did very well in the Southern America qualifications. I am not saying I am going to put money on them, but I might waste 20 bucks on it just for the heck of it.

Spain seems to be the team with the best form but it is true that they tend to underachieve. However, they finally won the Eurocup 2 years ago, who knows, maybe they are getting more reliable. On paper they seem to be the best euro team and the best overall together with Brasil, another team that is always very gifted, but on and off they fall into internal dramas that prevent them from performing.
It will be interesting to see the odds per group later down the road.
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Old 02-09-2010, 03:16 PM
 
228 posts, read 498,299 times
Reputation: 187
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoItaly View Post
Healthpub, I pretty much agree with your thoughts on the contenders.
In one of your post you talked about possible longshots and mentioned Greece. I have another name for that: Chile. They play an uptempo, fast football, good technique with solid defense and they did very well in the Southern America qualifications. I am not saying I am going to put money on them, but I might waste 20 bucks on it just for the heck of it.

Spain seems to be the team with the best form but it is true that they tend to underachieve. However, they finally won the Eurocup 2 years ago, who knows, maybe they are getting more reliable. On paper they seem to be the best euro team and the best overall together with Brasil, another team that is always very gifted, but on and off they fall into internal dramas that prevent them from performing.
It will be interesting to see the odds per group later down the road.
Thanks for the insight regarding Chile! I really hadn't paid attention to the other South American teams.
Now that you mention it, I would be surprised if they didn’t advance past their Group (Spain, Chile, Switzerland, Honduras) along with Spain. Interesting.
I'll look into them more as the summer approaches.
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Old 04-15-2010, 11:33 AM
 
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Argentina and Brazil are always top! but England has a really good coach...and I think Spain and France should be considered too...they could all come back
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Old 05-04-2010, 02:19 PM
 
Location: Brighton, UK
119 posts, read 231,204 times
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I have to say that although England had a brilliant qualifying campaign and have one of the best managers in the world, as well as a handful of world-class players (Rooney, Lampard, Gerrard, Ferdinand) I don't think we'll win it.

Brazil too are not as strong as they'd like to think, and there are many weaknesses in the team.

Argentina and Italy are both strong, but poor management and internal disputes could blow their chances.

For me, Spain are heads and shoulders above the rest - Xavi, Ineista, Torres, Fabregas, Villa, Casillas, Puyol, Ramos - these are the sort of players that make a team of legend. However, if they are knocked out, then the tournament will be thrown wide open and any number of teams could come home with the greatest prize in sport.
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