Populations of SC's MSAs in 30 years (Columbia, Charleston: how much, job market, buyers)

[Charlestondata]

The U.S. Conference of Mayors' 2012 report on the nation's 363 metros' economies is out. It is a very long report. At the end of it there's a table of 30-year population projections.

Growth rates and populations for the big three:

Columbia: 40% > 1,105,300
Charleston-N. Charleston: 45% > 1,014,300
Greenville-Mauldin-Easley: 36% > 896,700

http://usmayors.org/metroeconomies/0712/FullReport.pdf

[Skyliner]

Do they provide any projections for Urban Areas?

[Charlestondata]

Originally Posted by Skyliner

Do they provide any projections for Urban Areas?

No, but urban areas should make some big gains over the next 30 years since almost all of the growth in MSAs is in urban areas.

[Mutiny77]

That seems reasonable, but there are so many variables that could affect growth patterns over 30 years. Furthermore, these are metro projections according to current compositions. In 30 years, the Upstate could very well become one MSA again with some NC and GA counties added, Charleston would probably have pulled in Colleton and Georgetown counties, and Columbia would have probably added Orangeburg and Sumter counties.

[Charlestondata]

Originally Posted by Mutiny77

That seems reasonable, but there are so many variables that could affect growth patterns over 30 years. Furthermore, these are metro projections according to current compositions. In 30 years, the Upstate could very well become one MSA again with some NC and GA counties added, Charleston would probably have pulled in Colleton and Georgetown counties, and Columbia would have probably added Orangeburg and Sumter counties.

I see Newberry County as next for Columbia if any counties are ever added.

[Mutiny77]

Originally Posted by Columbiadata

I see Newberry County as next for Columbia if any counties are ever added.

Well it would just change designations from a CSA county to an MSA county and I see that happening within the next couple of year or so.

[GSP101]

30 years out is a long time. You can speculate about counties being added to any of the metros however, the only certainty is that these numbers will not be accurate in 30 years. What is does show is that using historical trends, Columbia and Charleston will grow faster. These trends may hold true or may change.

[NewYorkBorn]

Originally Posted by Mutiny77

That seems reasonable, but there are so many variables that could affect growth patterns over 30 years. Furthermore, these are metro projections according to current compositions. In 30 years, the Upstate could very well become one MSA again with some NC and GA counties added, Charleston would probably have pulled in Colleton and Georgetown counties, and Columbia would have probably added Orangeburg and Sumter counties.

Excellent point! The biggest variable that will determine how much these metros grow will be the economy. Making the job market in these metros more diverse should be a top priority. Greenville is the one that really needs to take a serious look at making some changes. There is just way too much dependence on manufacturing there....great for a person with a manufacturing background, not so great for those without it. Most people want to have job industry options when they live someplace.

[mattee01]

Until they figure out that inorder to boost city population you have to attract as many buyers/renters to downtown as possible first, and then businesses, growth might still be big, but it'll mostly be in the county and not the 'true' urban areas.

[Chico020]

Here is the rest of SC cities projected growth rate over 30 years.

Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conway 82% > 513,200
Spartanburg 28.5% > 371,000
Anderson 32% > 250,600
Florence 17.5% 243,000
Sumter 17.8% > 126,900