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Old 09-05-2021, 07:22 PM
 
Location: TPA
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Some noticable changes in the rural areas:

African American: Allendale -2,016, Jasper -1,761, Colleton -1,711, Williamsburg -2,971, Dillon -2,051, Marlboro -1,338, Clarendon -3,585, Marion -2,078, Calhoun -1,087.

White: Jasper +3,057, Georgetown +3,550, Orangeburg -3700, Marion -2229, Darlington -4263, Sumter -4419, Greenwood -2578,

The rural areas were actually stable with Asian: Colleton +62, Jasper +21, Dillon -10, Marlboro +24, Darlington +90, Marion -42, Clarendon +5, Hampton -11, Calhoun -2, Lee -21, Bamberg 0, Orangeburg +143, Williamsburg +23.

Hispanic: Laurens +1,418, Jasper +1,327, Oconee +1035, Cherokee +745, Orangeburg +200, no real major losses anywhere

AA: 15/46 gained
White: 17/46 gained
Hispanic: 38/46 gained
Asian: 35/46 gained
Multi: 46/46 gained
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Old 09-08-2021, 09:58 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
Some noticable changes in the rural areas:

African American: Allendale -2,016, Jasper -1,761, Colleton -1,711, Williamsburg -2,971, Dillon -2,051, Marlboro -1,338, Clarendon -3,585, Marion -2,078, Calhoun -1,087.

White: Jasper +3,057, Georgetown +3,550, Orangeburg -3700, Marion -2229, Darlington -4263, Sumter -4419, Greenwood -2578,

The rural areas were actually stable with Asian: Colleton +62, Jasper +21, Dillon -10, Marlboro +24, Darlington +90, Marion -42, Clarendon +5, Hampton -11, Calhoun -2, Lee -21, Bamberg 0, Orangeburg +143, Williamsburg +23.

Hispanic: Laurens +1,418, Jasper +1,327, Oconee +1035, Cherokee +745, Orangeburg +200, no real major losses anywhere

AA: 15/46 gained
White: 17/46 gained
Hispanic: 38/46 gained
Asian: 35/46 gained
Multi: 46/46 gained
Interesting that whites are abandoning Orangeburg, Darlington, and Sumter at large numbers (by SC standards)

African Americans leaving Jasper and Colleton may be partly for opportunity and part for maybe cost of living changes... notably Jasper County given its increase in white people who may be retirees with higher incomes. Increases in Hispanics in Jasper is interesting..I havent looked at the data but you wonder if it is a combination of folks moving in with higher incomes and/or increase in service level or agriculture jobs..which historically have gone to African Americans.. who.. by the numbers in Jasper.. seem to be leaving for other opportunities....but I stand to be corrected

Looks like everyone wants out of Marion County... SMH
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Old 09-08-2021, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Charleston, South Carolina
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Orangeburg County lost nearly 6,500 African Americans as well. It seems to be just another rural area that people are leaving for metros.
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Old 09-08-2021, 10:27 AM
 
Location: TPA
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Originally Posted by Woodlands View Post
Interesting that whites are abandoning Orangeburg, Darlington, and Sumter at large numbers (by SC standards)

African Americans leaving Jasper and Colleton may be partly for opportunity and part for maybe cost of living changes... notably Jasper County given its increase in white people who may be retirees with higher incomes. Increases in Hispanics in Jasper is interesting..I havent looked at the data but you wonder if it is a combination of folks moving in with higher incomes and/or increase in service level or agriculture jobs..which historically have gone to African Americans.. who.. by the numbers in Jasper.. seem to be leaving for other opportunities....

Looks like everyone wants out of Marion County... SMH
Hilton Head actually has a substantial hispanic population for SC standards. I think it's the most Hispanic area in SC along with Greenville. HHI is getting pretty expensive and theyre barely building any new housing. Presumably many of those hispanics are heading inland and Jasper is an option.

Orangeburg is bleeding everybody. It's the 3rd most prominent city/county off I95 after Florence and Sumter and it's easily doing the worst of the 3, which is a shame.

I feel like AA's are leaving those counties simply because theres nothing left. Better oppurtunity in Charlotte, Columbia, Greenville, Savannah, etc. Chatham County (Savannah) black population increased almost 3,000, I'm sure some Jasperans jumped across the border. Another question is where are all the Aiken-Augusta white people going? Both dropped considerably. August and Aiken is a good area.

And I dont think its a COL thing for AAs especially with those counties because theyre dirt cheap. York has the highest median family income in the state and is one of the most expensive counties, and the AA population still increased 9,000. You see this in Charlotte and Atlanta too. Imo I feel the COL issues were mainly Beaufort and Charleston. Rural SC just doesnt have it.

And yeah poor Marion lol.
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Old 09-08-2021, 10:30 AM
 
7,708 posts, read 12,027,159 times
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Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
Your numbers are not accurate. Everything I compiled in the first 4 posts was straight from the census.gov and I carefully calculated and double checked them. Took quite a while to do, you dont have to question it all - again. I would take a thank you, though I dont ask for one since no one asked me to do this.

Again, urban Columbia gained a net of 66. Metro Columbia lost 1,351. Richland itself went from 181,974 to 177,274. That equals -4,700. That is straight from the census, not me looking at wikipedia.

I redid all this for a reason. I'm not trying to go back and forth in this thread.
Looking at numbers in always interesting. In the case of Richland County.. I wonder if any loss in white population is linked to a gain in Lexington, Kershaw or Newberry? If so, that would be telling. I have known a few young white couples who lived in the City but decamped for Lexington County as soon as they had children... Was it because of schools? Maybe not sure because they indicated that they "needed more space and liked that area better" but.... Lexington may have more amenities than Richland .... if you compare Suburb to Suburb (Lexington to Richland). I think Lexington may come out on top...especially if you consider amenities like Lake Murray and retail shopping that draw people to the other side of the metro. The biggest downside from what I hear is traffic especially if you have to commute into Columbia
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Old 09-08-2021, 10:34 AM
 
Location: TPA
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Originally Posted by Woodlands View Post
Looking at numbers in always interesting. In the case of Richland County.. I wonder if any loss in white population is linked to a gain in Lexington, Kershaw or Newberry? If so, that would be telling. I have known a few young white couples who lived in the City but decamped for Lexington County as soon as they had children... Was it because of schools? Maybe not sure because they indicated that they "needed more space and liked that area better" but.... Lexington may have more amenities than Richland .... if you compare Suburb to Suburb (Lexington to Richland). I think Lexington may come out on top...especially if you consider amenities like Lake Murray and retail shopping that draw people to the other side of the metro. The biggest downside from what I hear is traffic especially if you have to commute into Columbia
Newberry dropped and Kershaw only increased +88. Some of those have to be births. Lexington sure, but I could see a lot of out of state white people settling there. I'm not sure whats going on with Augusta, Columbia, Aiken in that regard. Just my guess but I could see many in staters running to Charlotte, Charleston, Bluffton, which is why the Midlands was very slow. Like the AA's in the Pee Dee, all those people didn't just simply pass away, they went somewhere else.
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Old 09-09-2021, 06:32 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
Hilton Head actually has a substantial hispanic population for SC standards. I think it's the most Hispanic area in SC along with Greenville. HHI is getting pretty expensive and theyre barely building any new housing. Presumably many of those hispanics are heading inland and Jasper is an option.

Orangeburg is bleeding everybody. It's the 3rd most prominent city/county off I95 after Florence and Sumter and it's easily doing the worst of the 3, which is a shame.

I feel like AA's are leaving those counties simply because theres nothing left. Better oppurtunity in Charlotte, Columbia, Greenville, Savannah, etc. Chatham County (Savannah) black population increased almost 3,000, I'm sure some Jasperans jumped across the border. Another question is where are all the Aiken-Augusta white people going? Both dropped considerably. August and Aiken is a good area.

And I dont think its a COL thing for AAs especially with those counties because theyre dirt cheap. York has the highest median family income in the state and is one of the most expensive counties, and the AA population still increased 9,000. You see this in Charlotte and Atlanta too. Imo I feel the COL issues were mainly Beaufort and Charleston. Rural SC just doesnt have it.

And yeah poor Marion lol.
Over the past 20 years, changes in global trade arrangements, loss of industry to cheaper places inside and outside the US, offshoring, automation/technological advancements, deregulation, economic agglomeration, rising college tuition, the emergence of the tech sector, the rapid growth of professional service sector jobs, the increase of low-wage retail and restaurant jobs, and the recession has devastated non-MSA/rural and small metropolitan areas like Orangeburg and Sumter. Greenwood appears to be slipping as well. At least Orangeburg has a lifeline with I-26 and the junction with I-95 is in the eastern end of the county. Sumter and Greenwood lack direct interstate access which is definitely a disadvantage.

But beyond that, what truly sucks for places like Orangeburg that had better economies and were on upward trajectories in the 90s is that the manufacturing plants that left and went overseas or the Mississippi Delta resulted in several huge industrial buildings that haven't been occupied for two decades blighting the landscape, but the foreign-owned manufacturers and distributors coming to SC are skipping places like Orangeburg and are instead clustering in the Big Three and York/Lancaster counties with the non-metro areas fending for themselves without much political clout to steer investment their way. The Upstate and Lowcountry politicians scratch each others' back since their economies complement each other and of course luring companies to jump the state line to Fort Mill and Indian Land are easy "wins" so that continues to be a strategy, plus as part of a rapidly-growing prosperous major metropolitan area, it sells itself to new and relocating companies. The most the other parts of the state can hope for it seems is to wait until enough of its residents are forced to commute to the nearest Charlotte, Charleston, or Upstate MSA county until it becomes included and hopefully investment will sprawl out towards it.

But I will say there's an advantage to going all-in on manufacturing and distribution as SC has. Seeing as though Atlanta, Charlotte, and the Triangle were well ahead in attracting high-wage professional jobs in the form of corporate headquarters, major corporate operations, and tech/STEM jobs, it would be a big uphill climb trying to snag some of those positions. By specializing in advanced manufacturing, SC has an advantage compared to most regional peers and has attracted professional jobs associated with those companies (e.g., Michelin NA headquarters in Greenville, Continental Tire NA headquarters in Indian Land, etc). This is the predicament the Triad (Greensboro/Winston-Salem) finds itself in now, being stuck between Charlotte and the Triangle but not able to compete with either, and that's on top of Charlotte continuing to snatch what's left of the region's professional economic base. At the same time, it's not getting much in the way of the big advanced manufacturers that SC, larger regional metros, and elite performers like Huntsville are getting. It's not losing population but it's not doing much more than treading water right now I'd say.
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Old 09-10-2021, 01:47 AM
 
37,248 posts, read 38,064,835 times
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Originally Posted by Woodlands View Post
Looking at numbers in always interesting. In the case of Richland County.. I wonder if any loss in white population is linked to a gain in Lexington, Kershaw or Newberry? If so, that would be telling. I have known a few young white couples who lived in the City but decamped for Lexington County as soon as they had children... Was it because of schools? Maybe not sure because they indicated that they "needed more space and liked that area better" but.... Lexington may have more amenities than Richland .... if you compare Suburb to Suburb (Lexington to Richland). I think Lexington may come out on top...especially if you consider amenities like Lake Murray and retail shopping that draw people to the other side of the metro. The biggest downside from what I hear is traffic especially if you have to commute into Columbia
What I see here is the same phenomenon that often plays out in neighborhoods: if it's popular among Blacks, it will be less popular or even unpopular among Whites and vice versa. The reasons aren't necessarily racial in nature but that's how they work out. For instance, SC is attracting tons of out-of-state White transplants in droves for what appears to be lifestyle factors relating to geography, climate, and probably political ideology, in addition to all the retirees. However, Black out-of-state transplants are largely motivated by job/economic prospects (particularly in sectors in which we are disproportionately represented), reasonable housing costs, and cultural considerations--in other words, more bread and butter concerns.

With that in mind, I strongly suspect Black migrants to Lexington are settling in Cayce, West Columbia, and maybe Springdale and Gaston...and probably Irmo too. Across the county line from the St. Andrews area, which is basically I-26, is an unincorporated Census-designated community called Seven Oaks which I've never heard of but is solidly middle-class with a growing Black population that now stands at about a third of the total population of around 16K. I'd suspect that's an area where possibly a diverse group of new residents are calling home. Aside from that, new White residents would also gravitate towards Lexington and Chapin.
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Old 09-12-2021, 11:45 AM
 
2,288 posts, read 3,604,901 times
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Originally Posted by Jandrew5 View Post
Hilton Head actually has a substantial hispanic population for SC standards. I think it's the most Hispanic area in SC along with Greenville. HHI is getting pretty expensive and theyre barely building any new housing. Presumably many of those hispanics are heading inland and Jasper is an option.

Orangeburg is bleeding everybody. It's the 3rd most prominent city/county off I95 after Florence and Sumter and it's easily doing the worst of the 3, which is a shame.

I feel like AA's are leaving those counties simply because theres nothing left. Better oppurtunity in Charlotte, Columbia, Greenville, Savannah, etc. Chatham County (Savannah) black population increased almost 3,000, I'm sure some Jasperans jumped across the border. Another question is where are all the Aiken-Augusta white people going? Both dropped considerably. August and Aiken is a good area.

And I dont think its a COL thing for AAs especially with those counties because theyre dirt cheap. York has the highest median family income in the state and is one of the most expensive counties, and the AA population still increased 9,000. You see this in Charlotte and Atlanta too. Imo I feel the COL issues were mainly Beaufort and Charleston. Rural SC just doesnt have it.

And yeah poor Marion lol.
I noticed a few years ago that Hilton Head Island High School was somewhat quickly becoming VERY Hispanic in it's enrollment and wanted to see if you had any idea as to how and why that was happening. Thank you.
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Old 09-12-2021, 12:06 PM
 
2,288 posts, read 3,604,901 times
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Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
What I see here is the same phenomenon that often plays out in neighborhoods: if it's popular among Blacks, it will be less popular or even unpopular among Whites and vice versa. The reasons aren't necessarily racial in nature but that's how they work out. For instance, SC is attracting tons of out-of-state White transplants in droves for what appears to be lifestyle factors relating to geography, climate, and probably political ideology, in addition to all the retirees. However, Black out-of-state transplants are largely motivated by job/economic prospects (particularly in sectors in which we are disproportionately represented), reasonable housing costs, and cultural considerations--in other words, more bread and butter concerns.

With that in mind, I strongly suspect Black migrants to Lexington are settling in Cayce, West Columbia, and maybe Springdale and Gaston...and probably Irmo too. Across the county line from the St. Andrews area, which is basically I-26, is an unincorporated Census-designated community called Seven Oaks which I've never heard of but is solidly middle-class with a growing Black population that now stands at about a third of the total population of around 16K. I'd suspect that's an area where possibly a diverse group of new residents are calling home. Aside from that, new White residents would also gravitate towards Lexington and Chapin.
District enrollment (race/ethnicity) 2012-2013 v. 2020-2021, source: SCDE

Lex 1 (Lexington, River Bluff, White Knoll)
White - 79% (2012-13), 70% (2020-21)

Lex 2 (Airport, Brookland Cayce)
White - 49% (2012-13), 37% (2020-21)

Lex 3 (Batesburg-Leesville)
White - 49% (2012-13), 51% (2020-21)

Lex 4 (Swansea)
White - 69% (2012-13), 54% (2020-21)

Lex 5 (Chapin, Irmo, Dutch Fork)
White - 62% (2012-13), 56% (2020-21)

The data supports many if not all of your conclusions.
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