Asteroid trouble? (Earth, light, satellite, universe)

[Cruikshl]

I don't like the odds of this one........
German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper Tue Apr 15, 5:44 PM ET



A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

[harry chickpea]

I think they were being kind to the kid, and were totally off-the-wall. That satellite figure includes space junk, like bolts and jettisoned parts. If the asteroid is "200 billion tonnes" we would be talking about fly hitting a windshield impaction, which would do next to nothing.

However, the article is suspect in another way. "both visible-light and infrared spectroscopy to show that Apophis is "a good match" for a rare type of meteorite, known as a type LL chondrite."
source-

Analyzing Apophis :: Astrobiology Magazine - earth science - evolution distribution Origin of life universe - life beyond :: Astrobiology is study of earth science evolution distribution Origin of life in universe terrestrial

"LL chondrites have Low iron and Low metal contents. Only 1 in 10 ordinary chondrites is LL"

source -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chondrite

Looking for the density of the LL group, I found this:
3.29 +/- 0.17 g/cm3 for the LL group (+/- represent one sigma)

source -
Bulk density of ordinary chondrite meteorites and implications for asteroidal in

1 gram per cubic centimeter = 62.43 pounds per cubic foot
62.43 x 3.29 = 205.4
So the asteroid weighs 205.4 lbs/cu ft
he volume V of a sphere is equal to pi (3.14159) times the diameter d cubed
a ball 1049 feet in diameter contains 604400878 cubic feet

It therefor contains 56,301,106.7 metric tons (56 million metric tons).

I have a hard time reconciling those facts, with the article stating
"Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean."

billion adj : (US) denoting a quantity consisting of one thousand million items or units

Comparing the two figures for mass, the article is only off by a factor of 3,571 - In other words, it is claiming the asteroid will be 3,571 times more massive than it is. Do the figures yourself.

Can you say junk pop science? It took me less than 1/2 hour to debunk this whole article. It ticks me off that editors aren't doing basic vetting before broadcasting the "World Will End!" tripe that passes for science these days. Give me a break.

[JBrown]

Good Job !!

I find that a few minutes of reflection and a bit of time with a calculator debunks a lot of supposed "science'" in the main stream print. It's a sad commentary about the general publics understanding of basic science matters.

It's earned me a skeptic branding from my friends which I wear with pride.
I'm willing to bet you've got one too.

[sponger42]

Originally Posted by Cruikshl

...Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported....

... NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 ...

...during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029...


...at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth...

...and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres...

If the closest pass of the asteroid were really 32,500km predicted in 2029, there would be alarm bells ringing all over. No way are orbital mechanics well defined enough to allow for such a precise calculation so far in the future. That close, that long from now, I'd expect estimates to run more like 1 in 3.

...Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second...

Wrong! Minimum 7km/s.

...If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036....

Har har, a "200 billion" or even 200 million ton chunk of rock having it's orbit significantly altered by hitting a even a 50 ton satellite? Heck, it could hit the ISS and it would be like a semi hitting a mosquito.

As well, if they don't know which satellite it will hit, how in the world could they calculate what the impact would be to the orbit? Especially accurately enough to say for certain that it will definitely hit the Earth 5 years later?

...Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean....

Oh, so now we can calculate the IMPACT POINT of the hypothetical orbit alteration?

Thanks for the laugh.

[Tek_Freek]

I bet that kid can tell you where the bear sh*ts in the woods.

[JBrown]

It now appears as though the story is more bogus media foolishness
here's the headline

No truth to claims that 13-year-old found NASA error

* 00:05 17 April 2008
* NewScientist.com news service
* David Shiga

Link to full article:

No truth to claims that 13-year-old found NASA error - space - 17 April 2008 - New Scientist Space


junk science = junk news

[harry chickpea]

Yeah, at least there were responses to it this time.

NEO News (04/16/08) Latest NEO Hoax

Today the Internet has been propagating a story out of Germany that a 13 year old boy has corrected NASA's estimate of the chances of an Apophis impact in 2037 by a factor of 100 - from 1 in 45,000 to 1 in 450. According to this story, NASA agrees with this correction, generating headlines such as "NASA upgrades Apophis threat" This is incorrect of course. Don Yeomans wrote, "This story is absurd, a hoax or both." Unfortunately some of the German and UK press apparently accepted the claim that NASA agreed with the new calculation, without bothering to contact NASA. From there, this hoax quickly spread over the Internet.

NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations | SpaceRef - Your Space Reference

Like I said before:
It ticks me off that editors aren't doing basic vetting before broadcasting the "World Will End!" tripe that passes for science these days. Give me a break.

What is even sadder is that the main promoter of the story is Bild.de, a German newspaper. What ever happened to that German excellence in the sciences?

Breaking News for sky afficionados: Apophis risk <i>not</i> increased: science fair judges, world media screw up big time

[Marodi]

I wont believe any of that 'the end of the world! the end of the world!' junk until a society of credible scientists prove it with less than 3 months till the event. The farther you get from the prediction of the event, the more likely that the calculations are wrong. I figure with 3 months to go, the number of variables have been reduced to something that can be calculated with relative accuracy.

[haa]

You are all so right! I know nothing about science. The world would be over without you guys!!

[NightBazaar]

Part of the problem is in the way the media choose articles to publish or broadcast. The reason? Sensational subjects tend grab attention better than ordinary subjects that are dull and boring. Accuracy takes a back seat. More readers and viewers = higher ratings.