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Old 01-02-2020, 01:14 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
1,981 posts, read 1,467,928 times
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Looks like there is a lot to look forward to for Space exploration in 2020!


- SpaceX's Crew Dragon and Boeing's Starliner will carry astronauts this time to the ISS. Who will be first? My bet is on SpaceX but Boeing might "jump the line."

- Solar Orbiter is launching on Feb 5, joint mission of NASA and European Space Agency. I need to read about this more. How is this different than the solar Parker probe?

- United Arab Emirates is launching a Mars observation craft that will launch from Japan. Looks like they are interested in the Space game.

- India will launch the SSLV, which saves money and manpower for more frequent launches.

- SpaceX Starlink for internet in remote areas - more launching of satellites

- US Air Force X-37B will fly again doing who knows what! Previously, the X-37B flew for 780 days.

- India plans an unmanned test flight of its Gaganyaan in Dec 2020 - which is a 3 crew vehicle for future missions.

- Virgin Galactic is expected to launch space flights for tourists? Why haven't we heard more about this? What spacecraft do they even have?

- Blue Origin, Jeff Bezo's company, seems behind but looks like they want to move ahead in 2020?



https://www.space.com/space-missions-to-watch-2020.html
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Old 01-02-2020, 09:09 PM
 
7,118 posts, read 6,817,206 times
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Nobody is going back to the Moon, that is fairly certain.
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Old 01-02-2020, 11:59 PM
 
3,084 posts, read 1,180,704 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanAdventurer View Post
Nobody is going back to the Moon, that is fairly certain.
As part of a manned mission? That isn't scheduled till at least 2024-5, though it might take longer.
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Old 01-03-2020, 11:43 AM
Status: "ok" (set 28 days ago)
 
Location: Brooklyn
86 posts, read 19,490 times
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That 'killer' asteroid(s) out there whooshing about: the one where NASA/astrophysicists say "it's just a matter of time before it comes crashing into us."


you know, not IF, but When....


do you think people will have time to pull in the lawn chairs ? will NASA tell the news outlets so to give us ample warning to hide in the sewers or caves of the lands we live in here on earth...?






it just can't come out of nowhere ? with our technology - that's not possible right? NASA people will be able to see the blip on their monitors, and give us a chance to gather our purse, keys, family, pets, snacks and smartphones ?
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Old 01-04-2020, 07:56 AM
 
Location: Roaring '20s
1,772 posts, read 454,152 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PruSue View Post
That 'killer' asteroid(s) out there whooshing about: the one where NASA/astrophysicists say "it's just a matter of time before it comes crashing into us."
Of course it is. Any impactor can be a killer - if it hits someone. So far as is known, only one person has ever been struck by a meteorite (and received a minor injury - see the link below), though it's possible that in prehistory an unrecorded event killed one or more humans. On the other hand, there were a lot fewer of us back then and so a lot fewer potential targets.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/n...nce-space-hit/

The Chelyabinsk meteor of 2013 exploded with the power of roughly 30 Hiroshima bombs. But it exploded 30 miles up and so did comparatively minor damage. It is estimated that the meteroid that made it was of a size that hits Earth about once every 60 years. It was a little unusual in that it hit over a populated area, and reasonably near a major city.

Of course, the larger a meteroid, the rarer it is, and so the less often one will strike Earth. A 100m meteroid is estimated to impact about once every 5000 years or so, impacting with a force of more than three megatons. By comparison, the Ivy Mike hydrogen bomb test was a surface-burst yielding 10+ megatons. That could easily kill people, especially if it struck the wrong place. Of course, most of the planet is ocean, and much of the rest is wasteland with few if any people (polar lands, deserts, etc.). This is what happened with the Tunguska Event.

A collision with a 200m object is estimated to happen once every 36,000 years and generate an explosive force of about 375 megatons - more than 7x the largest nuclear weapon ever tested (the USSR's Tsar Bomba, 1961). That would absolutely be devastating if it impacted in the right place - and the larger an object is, the more broad the term 'right place' becomes. But still, it would be very unlikely to kill as many people as, say, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. And it seems to be fairly pointless to worry much about a once-every-tens-of-thousand-years event.

And here's the thing: 200m is really big in astronomical terms. It's hard for big objects to hide out there in space. Things this big are visible a long time out.

Let's take 99942 Apophis as an example:
This near-Earth asteroid is about 375m in diameter. If it impacted Earth it would do so with with the power of roughly 185,000 Hiroshima bombs and gouge out a crater over three miles in diameter - and it would obliterate everything for many dozens of miles all around. The frequency of these occurrences? Somewhere in the neighborhood of every 80,000 years. This would be a big event. The effects would be global, though it wouldn't come anywhere close to being a civilization stopper. It wouldn't even destroy an entire country (unless it hit a really small one). But here's the thing - it was discovered when it was tens of millions of miles from Earth. And the closer such a thing gets to Earth, the brighter and more obvious it becomes. The initial rough data showed a small chance (less than 3%) that this thing would hit Earth in 2029. That means we had a 25-year warning. Subsequent observations allowed more precise calculations, and 99942 Apophis will not be striking Earth in 2029. There is a small (less than 1 in 100,000) chance that it will on April 21, 2068 (it's a near-Earth asteroid that passes by us every so often).

Quote:
Originally Posted by PruSue View Post
do you think people will have time to pull in the lawn chairs ? will NASA tell the news outlets so to give us ample warning to hide in the sewers or caves of the lands we live in here on earth...?
99942 Apophis was not discovered by NASA but by Arizona State University. Potential impactors are sometimes discovered by a NASA agency, or by a joint project between NASA and some university or the USAF or even by private organizations. Other times they're discovered by completely different entities. And once objects of this size get to within a few million miles of Earth, they're visible to amateurs - and the world is full of amateurs who hunt for new objects. When they spot something, they check databases to see if it's known. And if it's not, they fall all over themselves to announce the finding to the world so they get credit for its discovery.

Even irregular visitors to the inner solar system - say, a long-term comet, or something knocked out of the Oort Cloud by some gravitational perturbance - might be seen by some official agency first, but soon will be well-known by the global sky-watching community. There's no hiding it, even if anyone (everyone - the info would be passed around between a lot of colleagues before it was determined to be important enough to pass on to a high-level bureaucrat) were so inclined. And the basic math necessary to check and see if it will impact Earth is available to everyone.

Where exactly it will impact would be initially unknown. The precise point of impact will have an ever-decreasing margin of error as the object gets closer and new and more accurate calculations are made. Hiding underground would be pointless if you're too close, and unnecessary if you're not - though, depending on the size and/or one's proximity, you'll have a rough go of things for awhile.

But even a truly large impact - the type of thing that killed off the dinosaurs ~65 millions years ago - would have a tough time killing off all humans (though it would surely kill off most of us). Life sure would suck for the survivors, though, as well as for their descendants for generations.
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Old Yesterday, 09:31 PM
 
Location: Mars City
5,697 posts, read 2,499,909 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HouseBuilder328 View Post
Looks like there is a lot to look forward to for Space exploration in 2020!

- SpaceX's Crew Dragon and Boeing's Starliner
- Solar Orbiter
- United Arab Emirates
- India will launch the SSLV
- SpaceX Starlink
- US Air Force X-37B
- India plans an unmanned test flight of its Gaganyaan
- Virgin Galactic
- Blue Origin
None of these would explore space. They will/would remain nearby the Earth, or at most, remain within our solar system.
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Old Today, 01:36 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
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Originally Posted by Thoreau424 View Post
None of these would explore space. They will/would remain nearby the Earth, or at most, remain within our solar system.
That's the definition of Space. Anyway, it's a good start. Why see the glass half-empty?
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Old Today, 04:59 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
1,981 posts, read 1,467,928 times
Reputation: 2085
Forgot to add, the European Space agency and Roscosmos also has a Mars rover set to launch in July 2020! This one will try to drill 2m into the surface and specifically is looking for past/current life.


https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49469225
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