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Old 01-20-2018, 08:52 AM
 
Location: So Ca
15,759 posts, read 14,994,409 times
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Officials say that itís not too late to get the flu shot. The vaccine is recommended for everyone 6 months of age or older, and is especially important for pregnant women, children under 5, adults over 65 and others who are at high-risk for complications from the flu.

Experts say the flu shot may be only 30% effective this year.


http://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-l...119-story.html
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Old 01-20-2018, 01:10 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katarina Witt View Post
90% of children who die from flu have not been vaccinated, and about 40% have no other health problems. We know those to be FACT. We also know that vaccinating kids for flu prevents death.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/c...flu-deaths.htm
Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Pediatric Deaths: 2010

We know this because pediatric flu deaths are tracked and investigated. Sure, lots of these stories are just anecdotes. But they do give a face to these flu deaths.

Your second link which actually details how they are able to figure out the percentage of deaths in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated kids is calculated does not support the claim that 90% of children who die from flu are unvaccinated.

From your second link:
Quote:
Overall VE (vaccine effectiveness) against death was 65% (95% CI, 54% to 74%). Among 153 deaths in children with underlying high-risk medical conditions, 47 (31%) were vaccinated. VE among children with high-risk conditions was 51% (95% CI, 31% to 67%), compared with 65% (95% CI, 47% to 78%) among children without high-risk conditions.
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Old 01-20-2018, 01:34 PM
Status: "Summer!" (set 16 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
86,987 posts, read 102,540,351 times
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^^Your point? The first link is the confirmation of the 90% unvaccinated. In fact, here's the title:
"CDC Reports About 90 Percent of Children Who Died From Flu This Season Not Vaccinated" Plus: "This review also indicated that 60 percent of deaths occurred in children who were at high risk of developing serious flu-related complications, but 40 percent of these children had no recognized chronic health problems. The proportions of pediatric deaths occurring in children who were unvaccinated and those who had high-risk conditions are consistent with what has been seen in previous seasons."

The second link was to support the statement that vaccinating kids prevents death.
Title: "Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Pediatric Deaths: 2010Ė2014"
Discussion: "We used national surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed influenza deaths and 3 comparison cohorts over 4 influenza seasons to estimate the effectiveness of influenza vaccination to prevent influenza-associated pediatric deaths. Best estimates based on NHIS survey data suggested that vaccination reduced the risk of influenza-associated death by half among children with high-risk conditions and by nearly two-thirds among children without high-risk conditions. Despite high prevalence (53%) of underlying conditions that increase risk of severe influenza-related complications, only 1 in 4 children who died with laboratory-confirmed influenza had been vaccinated. These results reinforce the need to increase influenza vaccination coverage, especially among children at increased risk of influenza-related complications and death."
"CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination was associated with reduced risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated pediatric death. Increasing influenza vaccination could prevent influenza-associated deaths among children and adolescents."
Mod note: Government website, more than three sentences allowed.
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Old 01-20-2018, 01:53 PM
 
9,593 posts, read 5,795,805 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katarina Witt View Post
^^Your point? The first link is the confirmation of the 90% unvaccinated.
Your first link is older (2013) and is not supported by your more detailed and up to date (2017)second link. The more detailed link (the one that shows us how they came up with their numbers) shows a reduction in deaths from the vaccine to be around 65%. Not 90%. That is my point.
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Old 01-20-2018, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
23,399 posts, read 28,234,455 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MissTerri View Post
Your second link which actually details how they are able to figure out the percentage of deaths in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated kids is calculated does not support the claim that 90% of children who die from flu are unvaccinated.

From your second link:

In that link 75% of the deaths were in children who were not vaccinated.

During the 2012-2013 season it was 90%.

https://www.ksl.com/index.php?sid=31...nt-get-vaccine

The article still supports vaccinating children against flu.
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Old 01-20-2018, 02:00 PM
Status: "Summer!" (set 16 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
86,987 posts, read 102,540,351 times
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OK, you're right., MissTerri. However, the protection of the flu vaccine is still high. The people who did the research in the second link looked at several seasons, not just one as in the first.

I see suzy beat me to it.
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Old 01-20-2018, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
23,399 posts, read 28,234,455 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MissTerri View Post
Your first link is older (2013) and is not supported by your more detailed and up to date (2017)second link. The more detailed link (the one that shows us how they came up with their numbers) shows a reduction in deaths from the vaccine to be around 65%. Not 90%. That is my point.
You are conflating statistics. The number unvaccinated is not the same as the reduction in risk of death.

The second link specifically states that only 26% of the children for whom vaccination status was known were vaccinated.

The second link also covers multiple flu seasons, some of which were worse than others. During the 2012-2013 season only 10% of the children who died had been vaccinated.

Reducing the risk of death by two thirds seems to me a pretty good reason to vaccinate children against flu.
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Old 01-20-2018, 02:11 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
You are conflating statistics. The number unvaccinated is not the same as the reduction in risk of death.

The second link specifically states that only 26% of the children for whom vaccination status was known were vaccinated.

The second link also covers multiple flu seasons, some of which were worse than others. During the 2012-2013 season only 10% of the children who died had been vaccinated.

Reducing the risk of death by two thirds seems to me a pretty good reason to vaccinate children against flu.
That's where it gets murky in the second link. It is very interesting to see how they came to conclusions of vaccination status in the group when they could not confirm via records. If it was a parent reporting then it was less likely to be counted. I believe they reduced the numbers in parent reported groups by 20%. Do parents necessarily keep a vaccine record of a flu shot that they got at CVS? They also didn't count anyone who had been vaccinated 13 days before death from the flu in the vaccinated category. It would be interesting to see how many died shortly after getting the vaccine and coming down with the flu. It would also be interesting to see the numbers for this year, a year when the vaccine effectiveness has been low.

I'd also be interested in seeing what types of medications kids were prescribed prior to the death. Tamiflu? Cough medicine? Nyquil? Tylenol? Anti-nausea meds? etc.
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Old 01-20-2018, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
23,399 posts, read 28,234,455 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MissTerri View Post
That's where it gets murky in the second link. It is very interesting to see how they came to conclusions of vaccination status in the group when they could not confirm via records. If it was a parent reporting then it was less likely to be counted. I believe they reduced the numbers in parent reported groups by 20%. Do parents necessarily keep a vaccine record of a flu shot that they got at CVS? They also didn't count anyone who had been vaccinated 13 days before death from the flu in the vaccinated category. It would be interesting to see how many died shortly after getting the vaccine and coming down with the flu. It would also be interesting to see the numbers for this year, a year when the vaccine effectiveness has been low.

I'd also be interested in seeing what types of medications kids were prescribed prior to the death. Tamiflu? Cough medicine? Nyquil? Tylenol? Anti-nausea meds? etc.
They did analyses to see what effect over or under-reporting of vaccination status by parents would have. I do not see where parental reports were not counted. Quote, please?

Most children for whom they could find no record of vaccination probably would have not been vaccinated.

Many states have a system for keeping track of vaccinations. Here in GA it is GRITS:

https://dph.georgia.gov/georgia-immu...registry-grits

"The Georgia Immunization Registry is designed to collect and maintain accurate, complete and current vaccination records to promote effective and cost-efficient disease prevention and control. The Georgia Immunization Registry law, passed in 1996 and expanded by House Bill 1526, requires reporting by 'any person who administers a vaccine or vaccines licensed for use by the United States Food and Drug Administration to a person.'"

That includes drugstores like CVS.

The 14 day interval is because onset of disease was before the vaccine had time to work. Those children were essentially unvaccinated. Would you rather that they be included in the unvaccinated group rather than excluded from the analysis altogether? They also counted as vaccinated those children who needed two shots but had only had one and were incompletely vaccinated. In other words, if anything the analysis may have underestimated the effectiveness of the vaccine in reducing the risk of death.
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Old 01-20-2018, 03:38 PM
 
9,593 posts, read 5,795,805 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
They did analyses to see what effect over or under-reporting of vaccination status by parents would have. I do not see where parental reports were not counted. Quote, please?
Yes they did and they made adjustments based on their analyses. I think they did the best they could with the information available. Like I said, it's always interesting to see the process.

Quote:
Most children for whom they could find no record of vaccination probably would have not been vaccinated.
Maybe, maybe not. If their parent says they were vaccinated but they don't have proof because they got the shot at a flu shot clinic or at the pharmacy instead of their doctor's office then they won't be counted as having received. It's a limitation that we have to live with.

Quote:
Many states have a system for keeping track of vaccinations. Here in GA it is GRITS:
Do all states have this? If not all then how many states have this?

Quote:
The 14 day interval is because onset of disease was before the vaccine had time to work. Those children were essentially unvaccinated. Would you rather that they be included in the unvaccinated group rather than excluded from the analysis altogether? They also counted as vaccinated those children who needed two shots but had only had one and were incompletely vaccinated. In other words, if anything the analysis may have underestimated the effectiveness of the vaccine in reducing the risk of death.
I'm aware of this but I do think it would be interesting to see if people were more likely to come down with the flu in the time period after vaccination then they would if they had not received a vaccine at all.

Like I said, I found the study to be interesting. I'm not criticizing it. They did the best they could with the available information. Science and research is always ongoing. It will be interesting to see how things continue to evolve with the flu, the vaccine, etc. over time. We've already seen flu mist pulled. We are in a year where the vaccine is not very effective. We will always see mutations because that is what the flu virus does. Is our attempt to halt the virus via vaccines potentially making mutated versions worse? So much to learn when it comes to science, our bodies, medicine, etc. Science is ever evolving.
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