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Old 05-20-2018, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,601 posts, read 6,124,273 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555 View Post
https://www.app.com/story/sports/hor...tch/622697002/

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The challenge posed by Good Magic, Bravazo and Tenfold throughout the Preakness Stakes may give hope to trainers and jockeys aboard horses in the Belmont Stakes. With some belief that Justify can be beaten with enough contenders alongside him, the field should be loaded with fast horses.

2018 Belmont Stakes: Early Odds and Predictions Following Preakness | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

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The odds right now on Justify to win the Triple Crown are 10-12. That's almost even money. Betting he will win the Triple Crown is the same as betting he will win the race.

Almost even money gets you Justify to win today and not three weeks from now.
I'm betting against...
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Old 05-21-2018, 06:52 PM
 
10,167 posts, read 13,878,460 times
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But just fewer than three weeks out from the June 9 race, the second choice is still to be determined. For now, fast closing Preakness runner-up Bravazo there at 7-2. The Derby’s third-place finisher, Audible, shares connections with Justify but remains possible to run.

“Audible’s entry in the race would likely make him the second choice on the morning line,” with Audible at 9-2, Bravazo at 5-1 and all others up slightly.
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2018 Horse Racing Thread-untitledrr.jpg  
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Old 05-22-2018, 09:37 AM
 
2,668 posts, read 1,597,415 times
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I don’t care for Mike Smith as a Jockey. I thought his ride was very pedestrian.

Having said that I think he wakes up. I think Justify runs a sharper race- he appears to have come off the Preakness in good spirit and good shape. If the field is smaller under 10 and Audible doesn’t go. I’d have to put him on top again.

I expect a much better betting race this time though and I can see some prices filling in the 2,3,4 spots.
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Old 05-22-2018, 09:42 AM
 
10,167 posts, read 13,878,460 times
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As I watch the replay of the end of the Preakness only three horses were seen on the TV screen near the wire. Then come flying into the picture was Tenfold. If the race had been a few yards longer Justify would have not won. Tenfold was the fastest horse by far at the wire.

Last edited by howard555; 05-22-2018 at 09:52 AM..
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Old 05-22-2018, 03:26 PM
 
2,668 posts, read 1,597,415 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555 View Post
As I watch the replay of the end of the Preakness only three horses were seen on the TV screen near the wire. Then come flying into the picture was Tenfold. If the race had been a few yards longer Justify would have not won. Tenfold was the fastest horse by far at the wire.
Hard to say if there were a few more panels you would have a different result.
Goes back to Smith’s ride on Justify - justify was never really pressed into action.

The key will be the workouts before Belmont. If Justify is geared up and ready to go he’s the one to beat IMO. Justify didn’t have the greatest lead up to Preakness and he won. An extra week and another couple weeks with the boot issue behind may be all he needs. A clean track may help too. The wet track may have almost been the equalizer.
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Old 05-22-2018, 04:05 PM
 
10,167 posts, read 13,878,460 times
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Here are some current odds based on probables and possibles:

Justify 4-5
Bravazo 3-1
Audible 6-1
Hofburg 6-1
Vino Rosso 6-1
Tenfold 8-1
Blended Citizen 12-1
My Boy Jack 12-1
Solomini 15-1
Free Drop Billy 20-1
Gronkowski 20-1
Machismo 20-1

If Justify does not win there are going to be some nice payouts on tri and super.
In the Derby I boxed the top 3 and the $6 ticket paid around $117, But Justify was 3-1 I think and Audible was 7-1 I think.
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Old 05-23-2018, 04:26 PM
 
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Restoring Hope, a son of Giant's Causeway. The horse was 12th of 14 last out on the Kentucky Derby undercard, albeit it over a sloppy track in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile

Here are latest odds. Baffert is thinking about running Restoring Hope. He knows how hard it is to win the triple crown and that entry could be a rabbit designed to help Justify in some way.

JUSTIFY 4/5
AUDIBLE 7-1
BRAVAZO 7-1
MY BOY JACK 8-1
HOFBURG 12-1
VINO ROSSO 11-1
TENFOLD 12-1
RESTORING HOPE 22-1
LONE SAILOR 22-1
BLENDED CITIZEN 28-1
SOLOMINI 30-1
ENTICED 30-1
GRONKOWSKI 40-1
FREE DROP BILLY 40-1
MACHISMO 60-1
JUST WHISTLE 75-1
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Old 05-24-2018, 07:05 PM
 
10,167 posts, read 13,878,460 times
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Here are a couple opinions that makes sense > They may be right or they may be wrong.

Konrad Weeber, Saratoga Scenes

I think Justify won’t win the Triple Crown because…of one major reason: energy. Justify was slowing down at the wire of the Preakness Stakes, appearing tired as other horses were making their runs. To run two of the Triple Crown races in the slop uses up a horse, which is why I favor a contender that has skipped the Preakness and comes out of the gate at Belmont well rested. For that reason my current top picks are Hofburg and Vino Rosso, both of whom were able to freshen up since the Derby.
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Brian Zipse

I think Justify won't win the Triple Crown because… more than anything, I believe his best distance is far short of the 12 furlongs which he will find in the Belmont. While I would like to see another Triple Crown winner, and I have a great respect for this colt's talent, I believe we saw a horse beginning to fatigue late in the Preakness. With a target on his back, I don't see him getting an easy lead in the Belmont, which will open the door for fresh closers like Vino Rosso and Hofburg to pick up the pieces. I believe Justify will run a good race, but his tough campaign and the final furlong will be his undoing.
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Old 05-26-2018, 09:25 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,601 posts, read 6,124,273 times
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I'm leaning W-P-S on Vino Rosso as of now. Will take a look at others including Hofburg and Blended Citizen. Still a ways to go....

Just the show alone will be nice if Justify doesn't make it. I think there is a good chance he will finish out of the money.

Last edited by John13; 05-26-2018 at 10:11 PM..
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Old 05-26-2018, 11:56 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,601 posts, read 6,124,273 times
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Now taking a loooog look at Blended Citizen. 20-1 or more? That's right up my alley!

Seems like he can run all day and wants distance. I like that he's been at Belmont, working out and galloping for a while...
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