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Old 04-26-2018, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt AZ View Post
They might be shipping him for the Belmont.
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Old 04-30-2018, 06:22 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
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Post positions tomorrow.

Hate to go chalk but leaning top pick is Good Magic. However I doubt he will be the favorite. I'm looking to get 5 or possibly 6-1. Is Chad Brown the hottest trainer on the planet?
May go W-P-S on him come Saturday.

2. Justify. I was impressed with his Santa Anita Derby win. Maybe a speed dual will develop and my top pick will sweep by.

Leaning #3 is Hofberg. But he wasn't going to beat Audible in FL Derby. Between the two Hofberg has the edge in distance breeding...

It's a tough field.

I reserve the right to change my mind later...
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Old 04-30-2018, 11:58 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
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I'm taking a real long look at Vino Rosso. Obviously he can win and I view it as a big plus that jockey John Velazquez chose him over Audible and Noble Indy.
Hummmmm...

Can I really get 10-1+ on him? That is going to be too hard to resist. I do not like chalk but I do bet it at times.

Glad I have a little more time. I'd like to make some money Saturday.

This is a very tough field.
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Old 05-01-2018, 11:45 AM
 
10,157 posts, read 13,860,760 times
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Odds are posted:

Post Horse Odds
1 Firenze Fire 50-1
2 Free Drop Billy 30-1
3 Promises Fulfilled 30-1
4 Flameaway 30-1
5 Audible 8-1
6 Good Magic 12-1
7 Justify 3-1
8 Lone Sailor 50-1
9 Hofburg 20-1
10 My Boy Jack 30-1
11 Bolt d'Oro 8-1
12 Enticed 30-1
13 Bravazo 50-1
14 Mendelssohn 5-1
15 Instilled Regard 50-1
16 Magnum Moon 6-1
17 Solomini 30-1
18 Vino Rosso 12-1
19 Noble Indy 30-1
20 Combatant 50-1
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Old 05-02-2018, 06:22 AM
 
Location: Massachusetts
7,079 posts, read 10,823,635 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John13 View Post
I'm taking a real long look at Vino Rosso. Obviously he can win and I view it as a big plus that jockey John Velazquez chose him over Audible and Noble Indy.
Hummmmm...

Can I really get 10-1+ on him? That is going to be too hard to resist. I do not like chalk but I do bet it at times.

Glad I have a little more time. I'd like to make some money Saturday.

This is a very tough field.
Vino Rosso might be a very good choice.

I saw a couple of YouTube videos yesterday done by a handicapper. Statistics show that the Raise A Native sire line is the most likely to win the Derby. The other video had to do with the Storm Cat sire line. In 51 attempts, no horse from that sire line has ever won.

So if you take the list of 20 contenders and cross off the 7 horses from that line and look at the remaining ones with Raise A Native you are left with 4. Good Magic, Firenze Fire, Solomini and Vino Rosso. That's not to say that horses like Bolt d'Oro, Magnum Moon and Hofburg can't win but looking at his theory, the previous 4 have statistics on their side.
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Old 05-02-2018, 05:08 PM
 
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No horse since 1882 has been victorious after not racing as a two-year-old. That eliminates Justify though the last 5 have been won by the favorite.

Kentucky Derby 2018: Latest Vegas Odds and Predictions After Post Positions Draw | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights
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Old 05-04-2018, 07:17 AM
 
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I'm going with the 136 year old streak that Justify won't win.
I've seen no articles good or bad about Audible. Maybe he is under the radar and I am sticking with that horse for now at 8-1.

Today's Kentucky Oaks has a nice card and in race #6 I'll go with Abel Tasman the favorite at 1-1. Across the board and hope that the horse has a chance down the stretch. M. Smith likes to pull up and not show if he can not win. He's a hard jockey to bet on for place or show.
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Old 05-04-2018, 07:40 AM
 
Location: AriZona
5,049 posts, read 2,733,816 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555 View Post
I'm going with the 136 year old streak that Justify won't win.
I've seen no articles good or bad about Audible. Maybe he is under the radar and I am sticking with that horse for now at 8-1.
What you have here is a conundrum, Howard. I'm not as sure that a horse won't win based only on history since 1882. A race horse is still a race horse, and this may just be the year that breaks that "record".

Having said that, I can understand your concern. If Audible remains your pick -- so be it! I admire the tenacity.

Personally, I was going for 75/1 odds Gronk, until he needed to bow out!

I seem to gravitate towards darkhorses.
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Old 05-04-2018, 08:02 AM
 
10,157 posts, read 13,860,760 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt AZ View Post
What you have here is a conundrum, Howard. I'm not as sure that a horse won't win based only on history since 1882. A race horse is still a race horse, and this may just be the year that breaks that "record".
It's two prong. I meant to also say I do not think the Derby favorite will win for the 6th straight year. It's time for that streak to end with the large field and other factors which make the Derby what it is.
If the odds go wild and Audible becomes the favorite, oh well.
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Old 05-04-2018, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
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Several handicappers like Audible. Have to respect his monster Beyers....

I'll have more to say later.
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