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Old 05-04-2018, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,595 posts, read 6,116,108 times
Reputation: 42353

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt AZ View Post
What you have here is a conundrum, Howard. I'm not as sure that a horse won't win based only on history since 1882. A race horse is still a race horse, and this may just be the year that breaks that "record".

Having said that, I can understand your concern. If Audible remains your pick -- so be it! I admire the tenacity.

Personally, I was going for 75/1 odds Gronk, until he needed to bow out!

I seem to gravitate towards darkhorses.
Take a look at Lone Sailor. He should be at least 50-1. I can't count him out of this. The trainer is hot and the horse who is based at Churchill is working extremely well and is coming off a nice race.
I will be putting an across the board bet on him.
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Old 05-04-2018, 11:19 AM
 
Location: AriZona
5,047 posts, read 2,731,924 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John13 View Post
Take a look at Lone Sailor. He should be at least 50-1. I can't count him out of this. The trainer is hot and the horse who is based at Churchill is working extremely well and is coming off a nice race.
I will be putting an across the board bet on him.
Yeah, that's another one.

Hmmm...
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Old 05-04-2018, 04:36 PM
 
Location: Massachusetts
7,072 posts, read 10,820,593 times
Reputation: 5608
Wow. I decided not to bet on Monomoy Girl because of my losing bets i the last 3 Oaks and she ended up winning.
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Old 05-04-2018, 09:41 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,595 posts, read 6,116,108 times
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Default Random Thoughts on the Derby

Whoever wins this I'm considering great, at least for now, ha, ha. I could play a 9 horse exacta box and still lose. Or lose a lot of money purchasing that ticket because of a possible low payout.
Then again it could pay huge if the favorites run sub-par or poor.

My top pick is still Good Magic. He's the champion 2 year old. 12-1? I think it goes down to 9-1 come race time. Third race in a horses form is peak. He's already done it. But will have to step it up a bit here as he could lose. I'm not expecting it but it's possible he doesn't hit the top 3.

I was watching a handicapping show with 3 well known handicappers - Matt Bernier, Mike Beer, and Dan Illman. None of them had Good Magic on their Top 4 picks. If interested Bernier has 14, 9, 7, 11. Beer - 7, 18, 14, 17. Illman - 14, 7, 11, 5.

I did not check today but as of late yesterday not many have even seen Mendelssohn since his arrival late Monday as he has been sitting in quarantine. World class trainer Aidan O'Brien must have a lot of confidence in his ability.
He beats me, then he beats me. He's not going to have it so easy like last time on Saturday. The 3 million dollar yearling purchase can win this but I'm betting against.

I still like Justify and he can win too. But I don't like him at 3-1. He's never seen anything like he will see in this race. More horses that he has faced total in his 3 races.

Vino Rosso got a terrible post position, especially for him. He's going to have to come from way out of it, further than he did in the Wood. He could still hit the board. A win would be amazing. Due to the extra ground I expect him to lose I'm backing off.

Regarding Bolt d'Oro - he could do well and has the ability to win.

Bolt d'Oro's trainer Mick Ruiz is an abysmal 3 wins in 61 starts this year.

A lot of my handicapping leans heavy on Beyer Speed Figures and trainers.
I am one who feel jockeys are overrated. I found out yesterday that Andy Beyer has the same opinion. For me it's the horse first and the trainer second.

Speaking of Beyer, he said only 3 can win - Justify, Bolt d'Oro, and Mendelssohn. He's often wrong when it comes to the Derby but I respect him.

I don't like the way Magnum Moon drifts. His win streak ends here.

I like Noble Indy but not sure here. Another who got a real bad draw.

Hofburg's lack of experience may hinder. Tons of potential in this horse and he can do well.

My bets will be:

W-P-S on Good Magic. An out of the money finish will be unacceptable.
W-P-S on Lone Sailor. I don't care if hardly no one likes him but to me he's worth a flyer at 50-1. The distance is a concern. Trainer Amoss has a 31% winning percentage this year. 3 year olds can dramatically improve and no doubt he is on the upswing.

I'll fool around with some exactas with top picks mentioned if they cost $1.00.

Last edited by John13; 05-04-2018 at 10:08 PM..
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Old 05-04-2018, 11:31 PM
Status: ""Don't count the days; make the days count "" (set 8 days ago)
 
Location: Eastern Long Island, New York
312 posts, read 89,656 times
Reputation: 1065
I have always been a fan of the Ortiz brothers and would like to see either one of them win and it would be awesome if they ran 1-2

I feel Jose on #6, Good Magic might have an edge over Irad on # 9, Hofburg due to I feel Jose will have a better advantage in securing a good position early. But seeing Irad in the winners circle would be just as awesome as seeing Jose there.

I have a nagging feeling though that this year's Derby will have a huge bomb or two involved that will light up the payoffs boards...... I'm seeing huge payoffs !!.....and I can't as of now put my finger which horse or horses that may be but if anyone can shock and light up the boards it may very well be Kent Desormeaux piloting the #10 ..My Boy Jack....
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Old 05-05-2018, 12:57 PM
Status: "Even better than okay" (set 11 days ago)
 
Location: Coastal New Jersey
51,292 posts, read 50,558,025 times
Reputation: 60207
Nice analysis, John13.

I went with Mendelssohn, $20 across. That's how I bet the Derby--pick just one horse. I gave up on exactas and trifectas years ago because I never won.

Good Magic was my next choice. If I lose and you win, I'll at least be happy for you!
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Old 05-05-2018, 01:17 PM
 
10,153 posts, read 13,855,421 times
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I'm staying with Audible as he rises in the odds.
The wet surface might cause issues for Justify if M. Smith tries to be 20th going into the back stretch. As far as I know he did not win a race yesterday. Maybe today will be his day.

I do not have the article but it pointed out that the trifecta and superfecta have featured at least one long shot the last few years. Enticed was a possible long shot for me but he has fallen way down the list.
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Old 05-05-2018, 02:35 PM
 
2,667 posts, read 1,594,282 times
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Justify to win. If he runs like he has in his three races he wins.

Hofburg. Flameaway. Good Magic. Enticed. Audible should race well too
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Old 05-05-2018, 03:13 PM
 
10,153 posts, read 13,855,421 times
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Justify has never raced against more than 5 foes. No wins before this year. Add in bad weather and the favorite may not even show since the jockey often pulls up when he can not win.
My Boy Jack getting $ because of the Desormeaux + rain factor.

I have Audible to beat Bolt D'Oro (10-12.50)
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Old 05-05-2018, 04:04 PM
 
2,667 posts, read 1,594,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555 View Post
Justify has never raced against more than 5 foes. No wins before this year. Add in bad weather and the favorite may not even show since the jockey often pulls up when he can not win.
My Boy Jack getting $ because of the Desormeaux + rain factor.

I have Audible to beat Bolt D'Oro (10-12.50)
He toyed with Bolt and has excellent speed numbers. He Has my respect
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