2018 Horse Racing Thread (Kings, games, events, world)
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No way I'm going against Bob Baffert's Justify -- Kentucky Derby winner Justify -- especially just after Justify just JUSTIFIED himself mightily!
Justify just proved that he's the mudder of all mudders. He's the justified of all justifieds! He's the one who finally broke that 136-year-old "Apollo Curse" which had been unJUSTLY foisted... unJUSTLY slapped on all previously unsuccessful two-year-olds.
And on Cinco de Mayo, no less! El Señor Justifyo!
No way I'm going against Bob Baffert's Justify -- Kentucky Derby winner Justify -- especially just after after Justify just JUSTIFIED himself mightily!
Justify just proved that he's the mudder of all mudders. He's the justified of all justifieds! He's the one who finally broke that 136-year-old "Apollo Curse" which had been unJUSTLY foisted... unJUSTLY slapped on all previously unsuccessful two-year-olds.
And on Cinco de Mayo, no less! El Señor Justifyo!
Justify ain't no sway-back nag.
Justify's a WINNER!
I agree with everything you say. And everyone in horse racing knows the Belmont can be the hardest to win.
Maybe Justify is the one. We'll see in a few weeks.
It's unclear how strong a field Justify will face when he comes to Pimlico Race Course.
Derby runner-up Good Magic, who made a strong move on the lead late in the race, is a maybe for the Preakness. Trainer Chad Brown said he'll first take his horse back to New York to recuperate.
"I don't know," Brown said. "The horse is sound. He looks good, but I just have to observe him. ... I want to get the horse back home and evaluate his energy level. We've just got to go from there."
Trainer Todd Pletcher has never liked the two-week turnaround between the first two legs of the Triple Crown, so none of his four Derby entrants, including third-place finisher Audible, seem likely for the Preakness. I hoped Audible would run again.
Others once thought to have a shot at Justify, including California star Bolt d'Oro and Irish-trained Mendelssohn, are headed home with no plans to run in Baltimore.
Fifth-place Derby finisher My Boy Jack is headed back to California and more likely to return east for the Belmont Stakes than the Preakness. Fourth-place finisher Instilled Regard will take 30 days to refresh himself at Taylor Made Farm in Kentucky.
Seventh-place finisher Hofburg is also likely to wait for the Belmont after he closed with a fury in the Derby.
Venerable trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who's won the Preakness six times, is likely to show up with sixth-place Derby finisher Bravazo and another horse, Sporting Chance.
Quip, runner-up in the Arkansas Derby, skipped the Derby and is a candidate to run fresh in the Preakness. But like Justify, he's owned by WinStar Farm, so that challenge is no sure thing.
Diamond King, winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park, is likely to be in the field.
Wow.........not much of a field in blue. Walk in the park maybe for Justify.
Quip is a nice horse but the owner is unlikely to match him against Justify.
Thanks.
I thought the other horses really respected Justify to give him the lead I expected him to sit behind other speed. I wish Hof would have moved into the 4 slot.
I was actually really confident with Good Magic and Audible too just couldn’t pick the long shots
IMO you play the Preakness two ways.
First way - Justify and Justify only on Top and figure out 2/3 and or 4 combos
The other play is leaving Justify off completely and putting others in your tris and super for a potential big payout.
I see him winning again easily or falling out - if he gets 2/3/4 I lose
I hoped Audible would be there to be the main competition. Now it seems only Good Magic will be the biggest threat. The field is very early but it may be small with some weak resumes.
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Here is a comment on how Justify may encounter issues over the next month. They may be right or they may be wrong.
"Justify's conditioning is a mystery, but he certainly didn't show any fatigue on the track Saturday. On a shorter track at Preakness, Justify should still perform well even if he isn't 100 percent.
However, the real concern over Justify's conditioning will come at the Belmont Stakes if he is successful at Preakness, as Belmont is a much longer race track that will test any horse that isn't ready for a marathon-like run.But since we're just focusing on the Preakness Stakes, Justify is the horse to beat, and until further notice, there's no other horse to bet in favor of than Baffert's newest champion."
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As I posted in an earlier post a long shot has always made the tri or super in the last few years. And it happened again Saturday when Instilled Regard got up for 4th at 85-1.
The Super paid over $19,000 for a $1 bet.
And it was basically the top three favorites and then pick a long shot for fourth.
In the Preakness a nice pay out might be a tri or super box with Justify and Good Magic on the top.
The Preakness is a shorter race (1 3/16) and the weather may be near perfect.
I currently see no one who can beat Justify but Justify himself.
I hoped Audible would be there to be the main competition. Now it seems only Good Magic will be the biggest threat. The field is very early but it may be small with some weak resumes.
------------------------------
Here is a comment on how Justify may encounter issues over the next month. They may be right or they may be wrong.
"Justify's conditioning is a mystery, but he certainly didn't show any fatigue on the track Saturday. On a shorter track at Preakness, Justify should still perform well even if he isn't 100 percent.
However, the real concern over Justify's conditioning will come at the Belmont Stakes if he is successful at Preakness, as Belmont is a much longer race track that will test any horse that isn't ready for a marathon-like run.But since we're just focusing on the Preakness Stakes, Justify is the horse to beat, and until further notice, there's no other horse to bet in favor of than Baffert's newest champion."
-----------------
As I posted in an earlier post a long shot has always made the tri or super in the last few years. And it happened again Saturday when Instilled Regard got up for 4th at 85-1.
The Super paid over $19,000 for a $1 bet.
And it was basically the top three favorites and then pick a long shot for fourth.
In the Preakness a nice pay out might be a tri or super box with Justify and Good Magic on the top.
The Preakness is a shorter race (1 3/16) and the weather may be near perfect.
I currently see no one who can beat Justify but Justify himself.
The mystery as Mike Smith has noted is Justify getting out of the gate...so if breaks late and there is a super quick pace upfront he could get shuffled back and then a deep closer could score the victory.
I think he wins because he’s the superior horse and can overcome issues better than any he will face in this field.
Closers have typically done very well in the Preakness
Justify (1-2)
Good Magic (9-2) - Trainer Brown is not 100% decided as of today
Diamond King (16-1)
Bravazo (25-1) - good odds (6th in the Derby) with a trainer who has won the Preakness 6 times.
Quip (25-1)
Sporting Chance (33-1)
Quip is running in the Preakness. That horse and Justify are co-owned by the same farm.
"Walden said Sunday that if Justify is a great horse, as many observers believe, he’ll beat Quip and make his case for the Triple Crown."
We'll see how Quip treats the other horses in the field.
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