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Old 05-17-2018, 07:54 AM
 
10,148 posts, read 13,838,845 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John13 View Post
1. Quip - Florent Geroux 12-1

2. Lone Sailor - Irad Ortiz Jr. 15-1

3. Sporting Chance - Luis Contreras 30-1

4. Diamond King - Javier Castellano 30-1

5. Good Magic - Jose Ortiz 3-1

6. Tenfold - Ricardo Santana Jr. 20-1

7. Justify - Mike Smith 1-2

8. Bravazo - Luis Saez 20-1
Good Magic did not back down in the Derby so he will be a part of all my tri or super boxes.
I'm trying to decide which of the 8 horses will finish 5th - 8th with the greater probability. As of now I am certainly certain that Sporting Chance will bring up part of the rear and it's not based on the odds.

I wonder what the result would be if Quip and Justify were nose to nose with 100 yards to go. Do the co-owners really want to see a Triple Crown potential (which may be a life time event for them) go down the drain just to get Quip a win? Quip could be a rabbit.

I do not think Justify loses unless his hoof is an issue or some totally unforeseen issue. But I'll have some wagers with him finishing second. His invincibility will be highly tested at the Belmont.
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Old 05-17-2018, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Mayacama Mtns in CA
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Thanks Howard & John.
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Old 05-17-2018, 04:42 PM
 
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In tomorrow's Black Eyed Susan > consider Midnight Disguise
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Old 05-18-2018, 08:56 AM
 
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Not a great race to turn a profit but

A few ways to go about this race.

Justify hoof is fine and he rolls or it’s not and he’s not in the money

So you have a ticket where he’s singled on top and one that he’s out.

I like Lone Sailor a lot. He has a new rider he did well in the Derby I expect the pace to be hot upfront and he can close.

Quip is interesting because he was pointed to this race specifically. He can handle this distance better and he’s fresher than the other derby entrants

Diamond king is in over his head. Sporting Chance has been acting up all week.

Tenfold maybe gets a piece. Bravazo too.

I’d go 7/2/5,1,6,8. If you have chalk go 1 and 2 you won’t make anything.

Swing for fence go...
5/1,2,6,8/1,2,6,8
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Old 05-18-2018, 10:34 AM
 
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My choice in the Black Eyed Susan was scratched.

I am taking Quip over Tenfold in a matchup.
Quip is 1-2.7 to finish ahead of Tenfold.
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Old 05-18-2018, 07:42 PM
 
Location: Mequon, WI
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5-7-1 tomorrow in the 2nd leg.
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Old 05-18-2018, 09:20 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
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Justify
Good Magic
Lone Sailor

I hate chalk. I'll be looking elsewhere on this card but may box those 3 in a minor triple box.

I'm having a hard time getting past the top two for the win.

Justify gets my vote to get his picture taken, again.
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Old 05-19-2018, 07:15 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John13 View Post
Macrina,

I found this link which is a good guide and the formulator is explained:

Odds with $2 Minimum Payoff for Horse Racing - dummies
From that chart what would 1-1 pay if the horse finished third? I'm looking at an even money favorite in one of the earlier races. Thanks.

1/1 win pays $4.00
place pays ?
show pays ?
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Old 05-19-2018, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555 View Post
From that chart what would 1-1 pay if the horse finished third? I'm looking at an even money favorite in one of the earlier races. Thanks.

1/1 win pays $4.00
place pays ?
show pays ?
The place and show depends on who finishes 1st (and 2nd if betting to show) and how much money is in the pool.
At 1-1 chances are the payoff will be small.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of now all races that were scheduled for the turf except the 9th which is down to 6 runners are now on the main track.

Special important note: The 5th race has been changed from 1 mile to one mile and 16th and will be run on the dirt. Only 6 runners for this as of now.

Turf is soft assuming the Grade 3 9th race stays on turf (a surprise to me but I've seen it before) and the main track is sloppy.

2 million dollar guarantee payout for the late Pick 4 - races 10, 11, 12, and the Preakness 13th. According to the DRF post time for the main event is 6:48 but check to make sure as it's not always accurate.

Going to try and use both Justify and Good Magic but the ticket may be too expensive. So just may single Justify.
We'll see...

Good luck and best wishes to all. Leaving for Laurel Park shortly...
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Old 05-19-2018, 10:12 AM
 
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Good luck to all.

Last edited by howard555; 05-19-2018 at 10:35 AM..
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