The peak in sales here in Washington County was March/2005. The peak in prices JuneJuly/2006. Both of these numbers have been in straight decline ever since.
As the National "bubble" crashed we were told by the local housesalesmen/women's associations and our Chamber of Commerce in Town that it was "different here".
They meant that the Home market here was insulated, that we weren't connected to the National trends. They were wrong.
No, it is not a good time to buy. Perhaps next Summer one will have an better idea of how bad our local "economy" is going to get because of the bust, maybe not. The same types that said it's different here WILL NOW tell you that the market is bottoming out, that you better jump in before the prices go up, the Boomers are coming here to save us or that the market is just returning to "normal".
IMHO: The bust hasn't even truly begun here yet.
Just one example of our local housing market:
Collina Tinta was going to bring in a lot of money to Hurricane (and the County) in impact fees and property taxes.
Collina Tinta
2200 "Tuscan styled" homes, 900 acres and a Nicklaus II designed golf course. Work stopped on it (after a couple of years of leveling hills and adding roads and lots) about three months ago. No more money and not one house. And a loss of who knows how many jobs that existed because of the project.
Do yourself a favor and drive around Dixie Springs, Sand Hollow Resort, the first phase of Elim Valley or the housing development behind or alongside where the WalMart is going up and see for yourself if the housing market (and home prices) here is strong.
Or go to Green Springs or Washington Fields or the top of Foremaster Ridge or Ivins.
This isn't about housing anymore (the number of individuals with good income in this Community is quickly declining):
The individuals that I personally know who work in Construction are finding it hard to make ends meet. Thirty percent (30%) of working age males in this County (per Workforce Services) worked in Construction. Other than local Government or the Hospital one can't get a job that pays more than about $10.00 an hour.
It's getting harder to get a loan:
Washington County is now designated a high-risk area (by Lending institutions) in regards to home loans. That means no more stated income loans, no more "investment" properties and a minimum 5-10 percent down payment. The word is that about one out of ten loans made here is actually going through to finish. I personally know someone who lost two different buyers for their house because their purchasers couldn't get the loan(s) approved.
More inventory:
In your drive around the County you will notice tons of houses with dead or dying landscape mixed with yellow lawns. Many are listed with NV, CA or Arizona phone "contact" numbers. Many more of these houses are not listed or are no longer listed for sale at all. I believe that this is an indication of just how many homes around here are in the pre-foreclosure process.
Nationally, these are called phantom inventory. Homes that are stuck in the system (because there are just too many to process quickly) that will someday show up on the market to compete with the many that are now listed for sale.
A return to normal:
Normal here (before the housing bubble came in 2004) was the worst recession in the State post WW II. Normal was having your home sit on the market for years and selling your home for less than the original purchase price (and being grateful that it sold at all).
Normal was a nice, NEW 1800 Sq Ft house selling for about $150,000.00. Normal was a Parade of Homes 10,000 Sq Ft property on five acres situated near my house priced at 1.2 million in 2003.
One other thing. I personally wouldn't bother looking at anything built during our "bubble". Many were quickly thrown up and poorly built by less than qualified illegal labor and overseen by builders who were busy "juggling" projects. I walked thru a lot of them before completion and was amazed at the poor quality of construction that I observed. Poor quality that is now hidden behind drywall, home entertainment centers and fake rock.
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