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Old 10-12-2017, 09:08 AM
 
106 posts, read 71,879 times
Reputation: 66

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"beats the alternative of just building newer further out (sprawl)."

I agree, and what is happening today is that companies can't hire people under 30 to work in these "exurban" areas anymore. Millennials are returning to the city and when it comes time for schools, inner-ring suburbs like Lindbergh, etc. Sprawling all the way into St. Peters isn't happening the way it did in the previous two decades. People over 50 will argue this though and assume people under 30 are still flocking to Wentzville..
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Old 10-12-2017, 09:19 PM
 
Location: St. Louis
6,517 posts, read 4,417,963 times
Reputation: 3705
Quote:
Originally Posted by STL1980 View Post
"beats the alternative of just building newer further out (sprawl)."

I agree, and what is happening today is that companies can't hire people under 30 to work in these "exurban" areas anymore. Millennials are returning to the city and when it comes time for schools, inner-ring suburbs like Lindbergh, etc. Sprawling all the way into St. Peters isn't happening the way it did in the previous two decades. People over 50 will argue this though and assume people under 30 are still flocking to Wentzville..
That may prove true in St. Louis, time will tell, but I'm not sure that's universally true:

Americans still prefer suburbs over cities: Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox – Daily News


The new numbers tell us something that was already evident to anyone who bothered to follow the recent U.S. Census Bureau reports, which once again follow well-established pathways. Since 2012, suburban and exurban counties have again grown faster than the urban ones; and this does not even account for the fact that suburbs and exurbs already constitute a much larger part of the U.S. population — seven times the population of urban cores in metropolitan areas over 1,000,000 population.

To be sure, urban cores, especially those close to downtown areas (central business districts), are doing better than before the 1990s. But only seven added more domestic migrants than the corresponding suburbs. Overall, the cores continue to lose net domestic migration, while the suburbs continue to gain, something that has been the case even in the worst year for suburban growth (2010-2011) and continued in 2014-2015. Core counties last year lost a net of 185,000 domestic migrants, while the suburban counties gained 187,000. Rather than a reversal of suburbanizing trends, we now see something of an acceleration."

And more recently:

http://joelkotkin.com/forget-urban-s...ly-looks-like/

Last edited by MUTGR; 10-12-2017 at 09:40 PM..
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Old 10-13-2017, 08:05 AM
 
3,335 posts, read 1,816,790 times
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I think the bigger concern is sprawl simply collapsing under its own weight. At some point you have a metro area of a million people that takes five hours to drive across with no traffic, and that just doesn't make physical or financial sense. People will start preferring a tear-down in Maryland Heights to new construction in Wright City that is barely cheaper and takes an extra hour to commute from. Especially if budget pressures halt subsidies to the exurbs.
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Old 10-13-2017, 08:40 AM
 
Location: Saint Louis, MO
83 posts, read 35,092 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STL1980 View Post
"beats the alternative of just building newer further out (sprawl)."

I agree, and what is happening today is that companies can't hire people under 30 to work in these "exurban" areas anymore. Millennials are returning to the city and when it comes time for schools, inner-ring suburbs like Lindbergh, etc. Sprawling all the way into St. Peters isn't happening the way it did in the previous two decades. People over 50 will argue this though and assume people under 30 are still flocking to Wentzville..
Not sure if I would consider St. Peters an exurb. Definitely an outer ring suburb. They’re actually doing very well and continuing to grow. St. Charles County as a whole is still growing strong, just not as fast as in recent decades. That should be expected. I do know a lot of millennials and people under 30 (I’m one of them and work downtown with a bunch of them), and many are choosing city life or an inner ring suburb. However, it seems like even more of them, or at least an equal amount, are moving to St. Charles County, especially when they have families.

The city and inner rings are getting revitalized while St. Charles is still growing. The real places getting hurt are the outer ring suburbs of St. Louis County. Population growth has all but stalled in Ballwin, Chesterfield, Maryland Heights, and even Wildwood. You wouldn’t know it from the retail being propped up, but those places are struggling. I guess people are realizing you can live in St. Charles County and have an equal amount of amenities and similar commute for much cheaper. You’re just surrounded by more rednecks.
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Old 10-13-2017, 11:24 AM
 
158 posts, read 69,769 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanfze55 View Post
Not sure if I would consider St. Peters an exurb. Definitely an outer ring suburb. They’re actually doing very well and continuing to grow. St. Charles County as a whole is still growing strong, just not as fast as in recent decades. That should be expected. I do know a lot of millennials and people under 30 (I’m one of them and work downtown with a bunch of them), and many are choosing city life or an inner ring suburb. However, it seems like even more of them, or at least an equal amount, are moving to St. Charles County, especially when they have families.

The city and inner rings are getting revitalized while St. Charles is still growing. The real places getting hurt are the outer ring suburbs of St. Louis County. Population growth has all but stalled in Ballwin, Chesterfield, Maryland Heights, and even Wildwood. You wouldn’t know it from the retail being propped up, but those places are struggling. I guess people are realizing you can live in St. Charles County and have an equal amount of amenities and similar commute for much cheaper. You’re just surrounded by more rednecks.
I don’t want to say it’s true about your last sentence...but just the other day, driving in St. Charles walking down the street was a man with no shirt, no shoes, just jeans. Wow!
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Old 10-13-2017, 11:34 AM
 
106 posts, read 71,879 times
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good points MUTGR, I don't disagree. In many of those cities where there is so much growth, i think that is the reason for the sprawl.
But back to Amazon, what would be the biggest reason for them NOT picking St. Louis? There are a lot of reasons FOR them: airport capacity is already there to be expanded upon, existing gates, etc. logistically centered, the most available vacant space in a Central Business District (Downtown) of any top 20 US city, low housing costs, mass transit (not perfect, but it does exist), and many other reasons.
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Old 10-13-2017, 11:45 AM
 
158 posts, read 69,769 times
Reputation: 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by STL1980 View Post
good points MUTGR, I don't disagree. In many of those cities where there is so much growth, i think that is the reason for the sprawl.
But back to Amazon, what would be the biggest reason for them NOT picking St. Louis? There are a lot of reasons FOR them: airport capacity is already there to be expanded upon, existing gates, etc. logistically centered, the most available vacant space in a Central Business District (Downtown) of any top 20 US city, low housing costs, mass transit (not perfect, but it does exist), and many other reasons.
Mass transit?
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Old 10-13-2017, 01:48 PM
 
195 posts, read 168,612 times
Reputation: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by STL1980 View Post
good points MUTGR, I don't disagree. In many of those cities where there is so much growth, i think that is the reason for the sprawl.
But back to Amazon, what would be the biggest reason for them NOT picking St. Louis? There are a lot of reasons FOR them: airport capacity is already there to be expanded upon, existing gates, etc. logistically centered, the most available vacant space in a Central Business District (Downtown) of any top 20 US city, low housing costs, mass transit (not perfect, but it does exist), and many other reasons.
Biggest reason not to come would be how our local governments do/do not function. How does it look to Amazon when a longstanding STL corporate citizen, the St. Louis Blues, succeeds in getting the STL aldermen to pass a public funding ordinance for upgrades to the Scottrade Center, but then STL's comptroller won't sign the agreement, leaving the Blues in the lurch? I'd be more than cautious about doing business there when so much of my financing will be public financing.

STL doesn't have a police chief. It can't even adequately control downtown traffic in the evening rush hour when there's a Cardinals game. Many sidewalks and streets are a mess. The governor is relatively weak (not talking about Krewson specifically, but the office in general, though it probably applies to her, too).

Second biggest reason is that STL lacks an intangible "cool" factor.

Third biggest, insufficient labor pool.

Is the vacant space stat about vacant existing office space? If so, I wouldn't assign much import to it, as I'm sure Amazon will mostly want to build from scratch.

Last edited by Hector2; 10-13-2017 at 02:02 PM..
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Old 10-13-2017, 03:15 PM
 
3,335 posts, read 1,816,790 times
Reputation: 2245
Lots of cities have weak mayoral offices.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanfze55 View Post
Not sure if I would consider St. Peters an exurb. Definitely an outer ring suburb. They’re actually doing very well and continuing to grow. St. Charles County as a whole is still growing strong, just not as fast as in recent decades. That should be expected. I do know a lot of millennials and people under 30 (I’m one of them and work downtown with a bunch of them), and many are choosing city life or an inner ring suburb. However, it seems like even more of them, or at least an equal amount, are moving to St. Charles County, especially when they have families.

The city and inner rings are getting revitalized while St. Charles is still growing. The real places getting hurt are the outer ring suburbs of St. Louis County. Population growth has all but stalled in Ballwin, Chesterfield, Maryland Heights, and even Wildwood. You wouldn’t know it from the retail being propped up, but those places are struggling. I guess people are realizing you can live in St. Charles County and have an equal amount of amenities and similar commute for much cheaper. You’re just surrounded by more rednecks.
That's a good point. The inner ring suburbs are in good shape, but why live in some bland cul de sac in Maryland Heights when you can live in some bland cul de sac in Wentzville and have everything newer and slightly cheaper?
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Old 10-13-2017, 04:10 PM
 
Location: Saint Louis, MO
83 posts, read 35,092 times
Reputation: 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankMiller View Post
Lots of cities have weak mayoral offices.



That's a good point. The inner ring suburbs are in good shape, but why live in some bland cul de sac in Maryland Heights when you can live in some bland cul de sac in Wentzville and have everything newer and slightly cheaper?
I feel like your comment was a bit facetious, but you actually made a point whether you intended to or not. That is pretty much the thoughts people have.

I cannot comment on Wentzville, as that is too far out for my liking. But I will say that not all outer ring suburbs are cul de sacs and houses that look the same. I live on a tree lined street where each house looks fairly different from the rest.
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