The Eventuality of an STL Earthquake! (St. Louis, California: homes, cabinets, live)

[moorlander]

there was a 3.7 "earthquake" tuesday in SEMO.

[imperialmog]

Originally Posted by Marksman84

And for God's sake - don't forget the Bread and Milk! You can't have a natural disaster in St. Louis without Bread and Milk!

That isn't just a St. Louis thing, I am in Atlanta and the fact that the mere threat of snow does the same effect. What is real sad is think how many people are from places where heavy snow is common, they should be more used to it than me who came from St. Louis much less any natives or immigrants from places where it doesn't snow.

[Chelito23]

If there was a 7.0 earthquake in the New Madrid Fault Zone, there would be damage from Memphis to STL to Lousiville.

How much depends on the strucutre, new buildings will be alright, older ones will have problems. There is no evidence that either affirms or denies that a quake of this magnitude will ocurr any time soon.

I don't think you need earthquake insurance in this area unless you really want to play things safe and have a lot of money on hand.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone is not shutting down, that is speculation. As a matter of fact, of the past few years there have been several small and moderate quakes in the region to dispute this assertion.

In the Midwest, the earthquakes are classified as intraplate quakes. This means they ocurr within the same tectonic plate, so there isn't movement between two different plates like in California. This area appears to be a rift zone within a the same plate, so it seems to be under pressure and is getting torn apart in the middle where as traditional quakes happen due to subduction, side by side grinding or plates become separated. So, by taking a technique of measuring different plate's motion from an area with a different tectonic setting and applying it to our area, whoese fault mechanics are poorly understood, does not make much sense. It's like saying "April Showers bring May Flowers." It may be true here, but what about in Arizona where it doesn't rain in Arpil and there are no flowers in May. The reality of one setting is different in another and there is no universal rule that can be applied and used to make conclusions.

As a general rule, earthquakes happen where there are weaknesses in the crust and where they have happened before. We may never experience the next big one in our life times, but the fault system is not shutting down. Every so often there are small and moderate quakes in the region. There is not enough evidence to determine if the system is going dormant. All we know is that it is currently active and in the recent past has generated large quakes. We do not know how often these quakes ocurr on average nor if they will happen again, but logic dictates that if they happened before they can happen again. The good news is that they appear to be infrequent.

The key thing to understand is that the local fault system is poorly understood. Therefore, comments about an immenent big one or the low likelihood of a future big one is speculation. By applying a different earthquake model to the NMSZ and concluding that because the same things that happen in California don't happen here as a means of validating that the system is shutting down is wishful thinking at best.

Bottom line is, we don't know when the next one will come so all we can do is be prepared. No evidence suggests that we are at a greater or less risk now than we were 10 years ago, so it's business as usual.

What people in the area should do is bolt down water heaters, plasma screen TVs and other expensive and top heavy items. Not only will this preserve them in a quake, but it keeps them safer from breaking under normal conditions.

[3240Redo]

^^^ Wow, one of the more reasoned and informed writings I've seen on the NMSZ. Thanks for sharing it.

[downtownmom]

I live on the 12th floor of a loft building downtown. i considered getting a hang glider

[kshe95girl]

I just about laughed my face off reading this thread.......I am on the verge of moving back to the area, and was wondering what to do with all the hurricane survival stuff I have, guess I am just gonna pitch it in the Uhaul.....you never know!

[tlw]

Lived near the epicenter of this fault for many years.

The quakes in 1811-1812 were estimated to be around 8.0. Another fault of this magnitude could indeed cause severe damage in St. Louis. The overwhelming majority of the studies feel the fault is long overdue for another major one. STL area was sparsely populated then. Zero tall buildings, no overhead or underground electric or gas lines, or raised highways/interstates. STL has no earthquake construction requirements.
Just remember the California quake of 1992 and the lives lost and damage done in an area with substantial "earthquake resistant" construction and resident preparedness. That one was 7.3!!


December 16, 1811, 0815 UTC (2:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2 - 8.1) epicenter in northeast Arkansas; it caused only slight damage to man-made structures, mainly because of the sparse population in the epicentral area. The future location of Memphis, Tennessee was shaken at Mercalli level nine intensity. A seismic seiche propagated upriver and Little Prairie was destroyed by liquefaction. Large waves were generated on the Mississippi River by fissures opening and closing below the surface. Local uplifts of the ground and water waves moving upstream gave the illusion that the river was flowing upstream.
At New Madrid, trees were knocked down and riverbanks collapsed. This event shook windows and furniture in Washington, D.C., rang bells in Richmond, Virginia, sloshed well water and shook houses in Charleston, South Carolina, and knocked plaster off of houses in Columbia, South Carolina. In Jefferson, Indiana, furniture moved and in Lebanon, Ohio, residents fled their homes. Observers in Herculaneum, Missouri, called it "severe" and claimed it had a duration of 10–12 minutes.
Aftershocks were felt every six to ten minutes, a total of 27, in New Madrid until what was called the Daylight Shock, which was of the same intensity as the first. Many of these were also felt throughout the eastern US, though with less intensity than the initial earthquake.

This series of earthquakes caused permanent changes in the course of the Mississippi River.

[chr1s]

Originally Posted by Chelito23

Therefore, comments about an immenent big one or the low likelihood of a future big one is speculation.

Of course nobody knows for sure when the next significant seismic activity will happen (if ever). But I think it's disingenuous to disregard the science out there as mere "speculation" without any value in estimating the risk.

The fact is that over the past 20 years or so, there have been repeated findings of low rates of intraplate strain in the area.

Now, there are models that suggest the lack of strain has no relationship to risk for another big event. But that's far from an established truth/certainty. There are other well-reasoned models that take this evidence to mean that we have been seriously overestimating the risk of another big earthquake in the area.

Anyway, I certainly think it's foolish to assume earthquakes will happen again simply because they have happened in the past. Major earthquakes in the NMSZ are very new (in geological terms) and there have probably only been 4 or 5 major earthquakes in the area during the whole history of the planet. It's not likely that the NMSZ will last forever.

[red7media]

Originally Posted by Marksman84

Ironically, we were out of town in Colorado in April 2008 when the little tremor was felt here.

Let's see...

5 Gallons Bottled Water
Propane Heating System
Blankets
AM/FM/Short Wave/Weather Radio
50-pack of Various Batteries
20 Cans Organic Black Beans
20 Cans Tomatos
10 Jars Peanut Butter
20 MREs
Candles
Matches
Blankets
Generator
Glock 17
Smith and Wesson 610
Ammunition
Detergent
Gasoline
Scrabble
Coloring Books
A lot of New Belgium, Sierra Nevada, Schlalfly, and Boulevard products
10-year supply of National Review

We're good!

you need to add pop-tarts to the list! they have a 10 year shelf life.

[red7media]

Also I run the New Madrid Earthquake site! I was in the 89 quake in California and almost died and devote my spare time the the New Madrid Earthquake site The New Madrid Earthquake Blog*|*new madrid fault line and earthquakes reported daily