Next upcoming neighborhood

[corvidae]

I live in Seminole Heights. I find that it is perfectly safe, at least in Old Seminole Heights. No one has, for instance, broken into the garage to take anything. Not very walkable, but mainly because of busy roads. I do find myself traveling to South Tampa a lot because everything/everyone seems to want to be there. However it is more affordable in SH than in South Tampa. Also it is more convenient to the university than South Tampa. There are a handfull of trendy shops and restaurants that seem to be doing very well, and a few others that seem to come and go and struggle to make it. Right now I'm scratching my head a little because there is a health food store for dogs that just opened up, called Health Mutt. I think they might have done better in South Tampa since people there have more disposable income to spend on things like organic dogfood. There was a (sort of expensive) vegan/gluten free bakery here that moved to South Tampa and I think they probably could do better there. Anyway, I think don't see Seminole Heights having the kind of shopping, restaurants and bars that South Tampa does... but I think the area will attract more businesses in the future.

[crazynip]

Originally Posted by Tampa Homes

not too long ago WAS 20-25 years ago. South Tampa was very checkerboard back then and Kennedy Blvd. was not walkable. There was plenty of drug activity as well as prostitution (mostly male) in that area back to Platt street. Was it as bad as Nebraska avenue? Of course not, but you certainly wouldn't want to go for a stroll down there at night.

And I have said as such

[roadtrip75]

I don't understand why West Tampa hasn't yet gentrified. Parents are desperately trying to get their kids into Plant High School and more than half of West Tampa is in that district.

Plant school boundaries

This must be the only Top 100 school in the country which has $50K houses in its district. It's odd that the ghetto has not been pushed to the north side of I-275. The expressway is such a natural boundary, both physically and psychologically.

Maybe buyers are worried that Plant's boundary will be dropped down to Kennedy, since Plant is already way over capacity?

[crazynip]

Originally Posted by roadtrip75

I don't understand why West Tampa hasn't yet gentrified. Parents are desperately trying to get their kids into Plant High School and more than half of West Tampa is in that district.

Plant school boundaries

This must be the only Top 100 school in the country which has $50K houses in its district. It's odd that the ghetto has not been pushed to the north side of I-275. The expressway is such a natural boundary, both physically and psychologically.

Maybe buyers are worried that Plant's boundary will be dropped down to Kennedy, since Plant is already way over capacity?

Because, no matter WHAT school district a home is in, if it's not a safe neighborhood, it dont matter. It's the same issue Hillsborough High School has faced. It's (or was) Hillsborough County's ONLY IB school, and it's half smart kids from the burbs and half ghetto kids. No one is going to move to that school district.

[roadtrip75]

Originally Posted by crazynip

Because, no matter WHAT school district a home is in, if it's not a safe neighborhood, it dont matter. It's the same issue Hillsborough High School has faced. It's (or was) Hillsborough County's ONLY IB school, and it's half smart kids from the burbs and half ghetto kids. No one is going to move to that school district.

That argument leads to the conclusion that gentrification is impossible, even though it is clearly happening. You yourself have stated that gentrifiers moved into Hyde Park areas that were ghetto.

I think I have figured out the reason West Tampa hasn't gentrified. There are still a lot of cheap homes on the south side of the Plant school district. Not $50K, but still cheap, like $100K. So, people just say, "Why not pay a little more to be in a safer area." In other words, what you said, just more relativistic than absolute. For West Tampa to gentrify without artificial stimulus, it would take South Tampa to become more broadly expensive. In other words, the pockets of affordability would have to be eliminated.

Overall, it's still very cheap to live in a good school district in the Tampa Bay area. This indicates that the social and demographic decay is not nearly as advanced here compared to many other places in the country.

One question: In most cities the gay community is the trailblazer of gentrification (because they don't care about schools). Is that true in Tampa? Were they the early gentrifiers of Hyde Park?

[crazynip]

Originally Posted by roadtrip75

That argument leads to the conclusion that gentrification is impossible, even though it is clearly happening. You yourself have stated that gentrifiers moved into Hyde Park areas that were ghetto.

There are many key differences between hyde park and other areas you think could be gentrified.
1. Hyde Park and other parts of South Tampa were surrounded by GOOD areas, not more ghetto. Seminole Heights, Tampa Heights and West Tampa are more or less all surrounded by ghetto and varying degrees of hood.
2. At the time when Hyde Park was "gentrified", there was a housing shortage, not a huge glut of housing like exists today. The Tampa metro, and specifically Hillsborough County was expanding faster than they could build homes. Brandon as you know it did not exist, Dale Mabry was still 2 laned North of Fletcher Ave, 41 was 2 lanes North of Fletcher, New Tampa did not exist, there was no such thing as Trinity, Fishhawk, and places down 301. A lot of people dont remember, but the Crosstown Expressway was the biggest failure of a road for the first 10-15 years it existed. It was a road that had no purpose and was not used much. In fact, it delayed the building of the Veterans and Suncoast Parkway.
3. The economy was on the RISE, not in the middle of the worst recession since the Great depression.
4. It made sense. Gentrifying North and West Tampa currently does not make sense because there is plenty of GOOD housing inventory that is not surrounded by ghetto.

I think I have figured out the reason West Tampa hasn't gentrified. There are still a lot of cheap homes on the south side of the Plant school district. Not $50K, but still cheap, like $100K. So, people just say, "Why not pay a little more to be in a safer area." In other words, what you said, just more relativistic than absolute. For West Tampa to gentrify without artificial stimulus, it would take South Tampa to become more broadly expensive. In other words, the pockets of affordability would have to be eliminated.

That is fairly accurate.

One question: In most cities the gay community is the trailblazer of gentrification (because they don't care about schools). Is that true in Tampa? Were they the early gentrifiers of Hyde Park?

The gays tried that in Seminole Heights. I dont know how well it worked out for them. Also years ago in Hyde Park, it likely worked out for them a little better, but like I said above, it was different times and completely separate set if circumstances.

[roadtrip75]

Thanks, very informative. The main reason I think West Tampa has potential is the expressway that bounds the north side of it. That's a great barrier between a good neighborhood and a ghetto. It makes much more sense as a demarcation line than Kennedy Blvd.

[crazynip]

Originally Posted by roadtrip75

Thanks, very informative. The main reason I think West Tampa has potential is the expressway that bounds the north side of it. That's a great barrier between a good neighborhood and a ghetto. It makes much more sense as a demarcation line than Kennedy Blvd.

Have you actually been through parts of West Tampa on the North Side of 275, specifically between North Blvd and Howard? Tampa's only high-rise housing projects are located there. It's hard to gentrify an area with that there. The area on the South side of 275 had another block or 2 where they recently dozed it and built the new Northbound lanes of 275, if anything is going to fill in, it's the area between 275 and Kennedy, the further West you go, the better it gets. People just dont want to live near those projects because it's constant "hit and run". I cant blame them. I lived in the area and it was bad enough there.

[roadtrip75]

Originally Posted by crazynip

if anything is going to fill in, it's the area between 275 and Kennedy, the further West you go, the better it gets.

Sorry, I wasn't being clear. That's exactly the area I'm talking about. I'm not talking about the area north of 275 at all. For north of 275, I would prescribe regular military patrols.

Even moderate gentrification of the area just south of 275 would make North Hyde Park and the area just at and below Kennedy more desirable (even though they are already desirable), since they would no longer be bordering a sketchy area. You would now have one contiguous piece of socially viable land, and I think vibrancy would develop naturally. The way to achieve this is to extend Plant's district all the way up to 275. You could raise the southern boundary to Euclid all the way across. This would of course be politically impossible, since Bayshore contains too many connected people. Also, in the short term this would decrease the quality of students at Plant, but that problem would quickly take care of itself as the neighborhood gentrifies. Plant is at 125% of capacity. Why they can't expand a school that is in the wealthiest part of the metropolis is beyond me.

It seems like my plan would have been much better for the city than developing the area near the airport. That area is geographically isolated and it's in a bad school district, so it just doesn't have any hope for the long term. It's like they decided to take a bunch of wealthy and non-violent Tampa-ites and sequester them. That's the opposite of what you want to do.

[crazynip]

Originally Posted by roadtrip75

Sorry, I wasn't being clear. That's exactly the area I'm talking about. I'm not talking about the area north of 275 at all.

That area is kind of a tweener, to most people it's considered part of South Tampa.

At any rate, it's proximity to the projects hurts it's ability to gentrify, at least between North Blvd and MacDill Ave.