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Old 01-12-2013, 05:17 PM
 
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What do you all think? Do warmer winters in Florida translate to more destructive hurricane seasons?
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Old 01-12-2013, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Toledo, OH
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Definitately could have that effect. Next week when our evenings are in the low 40's will be a little bit back to the feel of 'Winter'.

But these temperatures will keep the surrounding waters warmer than usual. One of the major things to watch is the Ocean Temperatures in the areas that Hurricanes form. From 5 to 20 degrees North and over towards the West Coast of Africa.

Here is a good website to see the entire Atlantic - http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst/latest_sst.gif
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Old 01-12-2013, 05:30 PM
 
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That's a great map! I am a huge weather buff. Hurricane season always intrigues me.
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Old 01-12-2013, 05:50 PM
 
Location: North of South, South of North
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridagirl777 View Post
What do you all think? Do warmer winters in Florida translate to more destructive hurricane seasons?
Not possible.

Warm winter weather has zero to do with hurricanes.

Hurricanes are influenced by certain differentials and natural pattern shifts, not as much by air temperature.

Joe Bastardi is the king of storm prediction and understanding earth cycles. He has a higher accuracy rate than any other meteorologist on the planet......by a long shot. His word is gospel.

Was It Global Warming When Stronger Hurricanes Hit the East Coast in the 1950s?
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Old 01-13-2013, 03:59 AM
 
Location: Lincoln County Road or Armageddon
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Joe Bastardi is the Glenn Beck of forecasters. Warmer water temps figure highly in a hurricane's strength.
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Old 01-13-2013, 04:55 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vaughanwilliams View Post
Joe Bastardi is the Glenn Beck of forecasters. Warmer water temps figure highly in a hurricane's strength.
Agreed.....the warmer the water temp is...underneath the hurricane as it travels forward- the more energy it has to "feed off of"

As far as I've ever heard- that is a scientific fact.

Warmer water= the potential for a stronger storm.....period.
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Old 01-13-2013, 06:26 AM
 
Location: North of South, South of North
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vaughanwilliams View Post
Joe Bastardi is the Glenn Beck of forecasters. Warmer water temps figure highly in a hurricane's strength.
Joe Bastardi has the best accuracy rating of all meteorologists. Take that for what it is worth.

The OP is will a warmer Florida winter (limited location AIR temperature) make for stronger hurricanes. The answer is obviously no, as limited location AIR temperature does not create hurricanes.....otherwise deserts would have lots of hurricanes.

Here are the factors for hurricanes:

El Nino intensity levels

Warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic ocean tropical breeding grounds

Weakening trade winds

Higher humidity levels

So no, having a warmer than normal winter in a limited area will not create stronger hurricanes.
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Old 01-13-2013, 06:52 AM
 
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Thanks for all the info! So I guess I don't have to worry about a more active, more dangerous season than normal.
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Old 01-13-2013, 06:56 AM
 
Location: North of South, South of North
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridagirl777 View Post
Thanks for all the info! So I guess I don't have to worry about a more active, more dangerous season than normal.
Nope. Not for that reason anyway.

I haven't checked out the natural pattern shifts predicted for this year yet, so I don't know where we will be at with that. I will pay attention to that come April/May and of course will have a hurricane plan no matter what.
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Old 01-13-2013, 07:14 AM
 
Location: Wake County, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridagirl777 View Post
Thanks for all the info! So I guess I don't have to worry about a more active, more dangerous season than normal.
It's too soon to tell. Like a couple other posters mentioned, warm weather keeps water temps high. Higher water temps can contribute to more and/or stronger hurricanes.
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