Tampa real estate (Wesley Chapel: days on market, sales, foreclosure)

[deebin]

Any predictions on Tampa-St. Pete area home prices in the years ahead?

[bentlebee]

Good question...If anybody had the right answer ....

Than we all would have sold when the prices/values were at the highest point!

[Tampa Homes]

I'll take a shot at it.

Condo prices continue to pushed down by distress sales. Banks will not help the situation either: I just had a deal fall through last week because the bank would not approve the HOA. The buyer had excellent credit and was putting nearly 20% down.

For the most part median home prices will probably continue to be pushed down (statewide down 4% from last year) as well. Although to be honest it's all very neighborhood specific. My immediate neighborhood has held it's value over the last 18-24 months and recently sold a home that was 2% increase from the highest selling SFH last year. To me that's good news and is not exclusive to where I live.

Velocity is also picking up: If a home is priced correctly it will sell relatively quickly. My last SFH sold in 8 days (I list homes based on recent sold price per sq ft.)

The good news is that inventory is slowly going down. In Jan of 2008 we had 25 months of inventory. At the end of October we had 5.8 months.

The bottom line is to simply clear out these distress sales (albeit it slowly) so we can see a return to market equilibrium. Some may argue differently but I believe we have gone through the price floor and once these distressed properties are purged we'll see an uptick in prices (nothing major, but still an increase none-the-less.) This isn't going to happen anytime soon however.

[crazynip]

Prediction: pain...

[user8]

as a side note, i've noticed the rental market down here take a nosedive over the past year as well; not as in a glut of properties, but in availabilities. a year ago when i was starting to keep an eye on the local rental market there was, -very rough estimate here-, about twice as much available as today. i'm guessing it's because so many people are either stuck in their underwater mortgaged homes OR not buying anything until we hit rock bottom.

[bentlebee]

Originally Posted by Tampa Homes

I'll take a shot at it.

Condo prices continue to pushed down by distress sales. Banks will not help the situation either: I just had a deal fall through last week because the bank would not approve the HOA. The buyer had excellent credit and was putting nearly 20% down.

For the most part median home prices will probably continue to be pushed down (statewide down 4% from last year) as well. Although to be honest it's all very neighborhood specific. My immediate neighborhood has held it's value over the last 18-24 months and recently sold a home that was 2% increase from the highest selling SFH last year. To me that's good news and is not exclusive to where I live.

Velocity is also picking up: If a home is priced correctly it will sell relatively quickly. My last SFH sold in 8 days (I list homes based on recent sold price per sq ft.)

The good news is that inventory is slowly going down. In Jan of 2008 we had 25 months of inventory. At the end of October we had 5.8 months.

The bottom line is to simply clear out these distress sales (albeit it slowly) so we can see a return to market equilibrium. Some may argue differently but I believe we have gone through the price floor and once these distressed properties are purged we'll see an uptick in prices (nothing major, but still an increase none-the-less.) This isn't going to happen anytime soon however.

We actually have a HUD which shows that the lender has to come to the closing table with money to pay of the back HOA fines, property taxes, etc...the value is so low that it is either that or foreclosing...maybe the lender will pay $ 110.- and get it off their records and not waste more money for court and legal fees.

There are areas in Wesley Chapel where the homes get sold faster and prices have stabilized....also rentals move so fast in these areas and rental prices are higher than in other areas.

[chi_tino]

Originally Posted by Tampa Homes

The good news is that inventory is slowly going down. In Jan of 2008 we had 25 months of inventory. At the end of October we had 5.8 months.

Have you noticed how, according to realtors, inventory is always "going down"? They love to use January 2008 as their starting point because NO ONE bought houses that month, making the inventory ratio look really high. Since then, they can always say that "well, compared to Jan 08, inventory is falling. That's GOOD for price appreciation".

A realtor will always tell you it is a great time to buy. They are actually required to have that phrase tattooed on their body when they get their realtor card.

Well, if you actually believe the inventory statistic hype, the opposite is true. These are "official" GTAR stats:

In January 2008, the average sales price was $249k.
In September 2011, the average sales price was $161k.

As "inventory" according to them falls, prices continue to fall. How could that happen? It is because realtors have traditionally ignored properties that are sitting in the foreclosure courts as future inventory. However, almost all of these properties end up back on the market, either through a court-ordered auction or being dumped on the market by a bank. Since realtors don't count these as "real inventory", they are continually surprised that more properties keep coming on the market to force prices down.

You should rephrase your statement to say "the number of people that have chosen to list their property with a realtor is slowly going down."

And don't get me started on the completely-fabricated number "Days On Market", which can be entered as any number they like by the listing agent after the sale. The house I recently purchased was vacant and on the market for 4 years before the sale. Instead of Days On Market of 1,400 days, the official realtor DOM statistic for this property is 0 days. Yep, the listing agent loves to brag about their average sales time (see the chest-thumping example above) and didn't want to skew the stats for the agency. So they just declared it zero.

If you want to see where the market is headed, there are reputable third-party analysts who produce reports for hedge funds, banks, mortgage investors, etc. A realtor is the absolute LAST person you should be getting statistics and forecasts from. Just take it from their former "chief economists" (Lereah, et al), who admit that their forecasts are completely fabricated to keep market sentiment high.

[Keeper]

Please stay on topic. This is not the place to bash anyone including realtors

[FloridaKash]

I think some neighborhoods are at bottom and will remain there for the next 2 - 3 years before the areas which are still dropping level out. Area which hit bottom first will begin to increase in price a year or two before areas that hit bottom later.

[chi_tino]

More bad news on the real estate front.

"Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought."

News Headlines (http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547 - broken link)