They are coming... Urbanites increase (Miami, Tampa: fit in, sales, foreclosures)

[Spring Hillian]

Build it and they will come.

[tinytrump]

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

While looking at population info, I found an article stating what I'd said back on page 5 about the burgeoning Tampa/Orlando Megalopolis, which is one of the reasons I relocated here, to enjoy the relative lack (compared to south Florida) of development for now and to benefit from the impending development, how that will raise property values here later.

Population boom to bring sea change
"...What’s drawn less attention is that much of Florida’s population growth through 2060 is expected to take place within two broad corridors: the Tampa Bay area through Orlando to the Atlantic coast and the Tampa Bay area to Jacksonville.

Hillsborough County alone could gain 600,000 people to reach a population of about 1.8 million — and add 400,000 jobs to reach 1 million by 2040, mid-level projections in a University of Florida study indicate....

...Growth also might increase housing values, create crowding similar to what’s affected the ambiance of South Florida in recent decades and shift cultural attitudes...

...The three Southeast Florida counties and Pinellas County are very nearly out of vacant, developable land,” a consultant’s draft report in August for the Hillsborough Metropolitan Planning Organization said....

“The impact is that Hillsborough and Orange counties, as well as other Tampa Bay, Southwest and Central Florida counties such as Lee, Polk and Pasco, will absorb a proportionately greater share of Florida’s growth than was the case prior to 2000.”...

The Florida Department of Transportation in April reported more than 7.5 million people and 3.1 million jobs are in the 15-county corridor planners call the Tampa Bay-Orlando-Daytona “Super Region,” the 10th largest U.S. regional economy.

As many as 5.7 million additional residents are expected in 50 years in a 60-mile-wide corridor between Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach and Melbourne.

More than 5.2 million people and 2.2 million jobs are located in a corridor FDOT identified between Tampa and Northeast Florida and Jacksonville, which includes portions of some counties included in the Central Florida study.

FDOT estimates the Northeast Corridor population could expand by more than 80 percent by 2060, with four of five new residents locating in the Tampa Bay area or in counties surrounding Jacksonville."

Here's a US Census visual showing density of the Fort Lauderdale/Miami Super Region (what this area will eventually become) and the current density of Tampa Bay alone before it merges with Orlando...

Per Census data: "Population density is expressed as the average number of people per square mile of land area. Distances are measured from the city hall or similar municipal building of the metro area's first-named principal city."

WOW some nice INFO-thank you ! but it is similar to the same stuff I have been saying for 7 yrs--- and nobody wants to hear about it or prepare, or pay into either- I would love to know where this population growth is coming from.. mi-westerners? northen birds-beyond our borders? Europeans? As a native, I would like to know what Fl will look like in the future.

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

While looking at population info, I found an article stating what I'd said back on page 5 about the burgeoning Tampa/Orlando Megalopolis, which is one of the reasons I relocated here, to enjoy the relative lack (compared to south Florida) of development for now and to benefit from the impending development, how that will raise property values here later.

Population boom to bring sea change
"...What’s drawn less attention is that much of Florida’s population growth through 2060 is expected to take place within two broad corridors: the Tampa Bay area through Orlando to the Atlantic coast and the Tampa Bay area to Jacksonville.

Hillsborough County alone could gain 600,000 people to reach a population of about 1.8 million — and add 400,000 jobs to reach 1 million by 2040, mid-level projections in a University of Florida study indicate....

...Growth also might increase housing values, create crowding similar to what’s affected the ambiance of South Florida in recent decades and shift cultural attitudes...

...The three Southeast Florida counties and Pinellas County are very nearly out of vacant, developable land,” a consultant’s draft report in August for the Hillsborough Metropolitan Planning Organization said....

“The impact is that Hillsborough and Orange counties, as well as other Tampa Bay, Southwest and Central Florida counties such as Lee, Polk and Pasco, will absorb a proportionately greater share of Florida’s growth than was the case prior to 2000.”...

The Florida Department of Transportation in April reported more than 7.5 million people and 3.1 million jobs are in the 15-county corridor planners call the Tampa Bay-Orlando-Daytona “Super Region,” the 10th largest U.S. regional economy.

As many as 5.7 million additional residents are expected in 50 years in a 60-mile-wide corridor between Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach and Melbourne.

More than 5.2 million people and 2.2 million jobs are located in a corridor FDOT identified between Tampa and Northeast Florida and Jacksonville, which includes portions of some counties included in the Central Florida study.

FDOT estimates the Northeast Corridor population could expand by more than 80 percent by 2060, with four of five new residents locating in the Tampa Bay area or in counties surrounding Jacksonville."

Here's a US Census visual showing density of the Fort Lauderdale/Miami Super Region (what this area will eventually become) and the current density of Tampa Bay alone before it merges with Orlando...






Per Census data: "Population density is expressed as the average number of people per square mile of land area. Distances are measured from the city hall or similar municipal building of the metro area's first-named principal city."

Are you confident their info is correct, because I have it on good word from some people on CD that Florida and Tampa Bay in particular is hell on earth, no reasonable person wants to live here and no one is moving here. I am asking, because if the data provided is correct......that we mean my CD sources were blowing hot air.

[Not_liking_FL]

Originally Posted by PriusH8r

Are you confident their info is correct, because I have it on good word from some people on CD that Florida and Tampa Bay in particular is hell on earth, no reasonable person wants to live here and no one is moving here. I am asking, because if the data provided is correct......that we mean my CD sources were blowing hot air.

Maybe you are the one blowing hot air because I don't remember anyone making those claims. Well except maybe the hell on earth part.

[BBI]

Originally Posted by PriusH8r

Price alone does not determine which is most desirable. That is a common mistake people often make. Price is a reflection of two things. How many homes are available and how many buyers there are for them. So lets pretend location A has only 100 homes for sale, but has 200 people who want to buy there. Well the price goes up because there are more buyers than homes......even though there are only 200 buyers. Now say location B has 1,000 homes available because there are more homes overall, but there are 800 people we want to buy. Well the prices will be lower because there are not as many buyers as homes.......yet location B has four times as many people who want to live there. So the lower price of the two places is the most desirable. More people desire to live there. This really can show up on gulf waterfront property. There are fewer homes there than inland, so the prices go WAY up because there are enough buyers compared to the relative few homes.

You use the word "desirable" in an odd way. In your example, "location A" has a wait list of people who want to move there, while over in "location B" everyone's trying to move and there are no buyers. Pretty clear to me that "location A" is more desirable, at least the way I think about that word. I mean, more people are going to line up to eat at McDonald's tonight than at Bern's, but I wouldn't say a quarter pounder is generally more "desirable" than a $50 filet. There's a reason one costs 10 times more than the other... Not that general desirability dictates what any individual person should do at any particular time. I've got $50, and I like steak, but I don't go to Bern's very often.

[Red3311]

Originally Posted by Spring Hillian

Build it and they will come.

worked great for Detroit...

[bavariantransplant]

Originally Posted by Red3311

worked great for Detroit...

That would be a different saying, maybe, "Dropping the ball"?

Detroit did built it and they came then Detroit "dropped the ball"!

It is actually a sad story of what has happened to our country due to special interests and dirty greed / corruption. Not sure how relevant it is in the dynamic of greater Tampa Bay though...

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by BBI

You use the word "desirable" in an odd way. In your example, "location A" has a wait list of people who want to move there, while over in "location B" everyone's trying to move and there are no buyers. Pretty clear to me that "location A" is more desirable, at least the way I think about that word. I mean, more people are going to line up to eat at McDonald's tonight than at Bern's, but I wouldn't say a quarter pounder is generally more "desirable" than a $50 filet. There's a reason one costs 10 times more than the other... Not that general desirability dictates what any individual person should do at any particular time. I've got $50, and I like steak, but I don't go to Bern's very often.

Look at the example again. You said there are no buyers for location B. That is not what I posted. There are FOUR times as many people wanting location B, but because location B have even more homes available, then prices do not get driven up. Location A has only 1/4 as many people who want to live there, but because there are fewer houses to choose from, the prices go up. Supply and demand. When the supply is low you need less demand to overcome supply to drive prices up. When you are looking in areas with lots of land to build and lots of homes already there, then you can have a lot more people wanting to move there yet not drive prices up because the houses and availability of new homes outpace demand.....even though the demand is greater than the higher priced location.

[housingcrashsurvivor]

Originally Posted by PriusH8r

Are you confident their info is correct, because I have it on good word from some people on CD that Florida and Tampa Bay in particular is hell on earth, no reasonable person wants to live here and no one is moving here. I am asking, because if the data provided is correct......that we mean my CD sources were blowing hot air.

Have you also noticed the negativity? Though, that could just be coming from one or two posters who might have five or more sock accounts each.

But just like I mentioned about, haha, Global Warming, the numbers don't lie. Not that stats can't be manipulated, but population counts we can be pretty sure of. As long as they don't double count socks, the numbers are good.

Without exception, every urban planning study I've read projects this area to grow Megapolitan, most say by the year 2040. Tampa is ideally situated as an anchor of a super region. Besides being already an established city with seaport, it's connected by 75 to Sarasota and north towards Jax and by I-4 to Orlando/Daytona and one day maybe by high speed to Miami. So it's not just linear as was the development between Miami and Lauderdale, rather it looks more like the hub of a tripod, directly linking three other major areas.

Here's a randomly googled study...

http://www.des.ucdavis.edu/faculty/h...gapolitans.pdf
Dallas and Fort Worth converged in the 1960s, as Washington and Baltimore did two decades later.Today, regions with multiple cities, like Phoenix and Tucson, Tampa and Orlando, and San Antonio and Austin, are exhibiting the same pattern, only on a more massive scale.

[Red3311]

no need to throw a parade, like I said earlier one hurricane strike would HALT GROWTH for at least 3-5 years. That is how fragile the "growth" is here. Another housing and/or stock market collapse? Would TB area even recover?