Tampa Bay: Lowest household income of most populous metropolitan area in the US (Spring Hill: student loans, home)

[housingcrashsurvivor]

I don't think you guys are using "shadow inventory" correctly because it is not true that we've "no idea" as to what that might be when actually we know very well what it is. It is not a mystery number. The only thing you don't know about a so-called shadow inventory is whether or not homeowners are holding off on putting a house up for sale. Now, likely, individuals probably aren't though banks might be, but we can know what's owned by banks, so most of that figure is not unknown.

The rest of shadow inventory are properties that are in or might go into foreclosure (the pre-foreclosures or lis pendens I think they are called) which might later come to market and we also, for the most part--barring a sudden great depression--know those numbers.

That was more of a bigger deal creating more uncertainty five or six years ago.

Housing 'Shadow Inventory' Falling - Business Insider
Remember The Housing Market 'Shadow Inventory' That Had Everyone Completely Freaked Out?




Based on CoreLogic's estimate, the shadow inventory is closer to 1.7 million properties, which according to them is the lowest level since August 2008.
CoreLogic's Mark Fleming believes "Healthy market levels of shadow inventory are around 650,000 units, so there is more to be done."
The upshot to all of this is that while the shadow inventory remains bloated, it hasn't been some uber price-depressing force in the housing market.

[kmarc]

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

I don't think you guys are using "shadow inventory" correctly because it is not true that we've "no idea" as to what that might be when actually we know very well what it is. It is not a mystery number. The only thing you don't know about a so-called shadow inventory is whether or not homeowners are holding off on putting a house up for sale. Now, likely, individuals probably aren't though banks might be, but we can know what's owned by banks, so most of that figure is not unknown.

The rest of shadow inventory are properties that are in or might go into foreclosure (the pre-foreclosures or lis pendens I think they are called) which might later come to market and we also, for the most part--barring a sudden great depression--know those numbers.

That was more of a bigger deal creating more uncertainty five or six years ago.

Housing 'Shadow Inventory' Falling - Business Insider
Remember The Housing Market 'Shadow Inventory' That Had Everyone Completely Freaked Out?




Based on CoreLogic's estimate, the shadow inventory is closer to 1.7 million properties, which according to them is the lowest level since August 2008.
CoreLogic's Mark Fleming believes "Healthy market levels of shadow inventory are around 650,000 units, so there is more to be done."
The upshot to all of this is that while the shadow inventory remains bloated, it hasn't been some uber price-depressing force in the housing market.

Sure, whatever they say. It must be true.

For example, I've got a buddy who hasn't made a payment on his home in Pinellas for FIVE YEARS! All the RE websites show it as "Off the Market". No lis pendens, no nothing. If that isn't shadow, I dunno what is. And I doubt anyone knows how much inventory is in this sort of limbo. As to banks "owning" property, that's something of a misnomer. There may be banks "servicing" the mortgages, but a lot of those mortgages were sliced and diced into exotic financial instruments, and more than one investor may have a piece of a mortgage. Provided the title wasn't muddied in the housing bubble hysteria. I figure his property was part of that whole peak bubble crack-up and nobody really knows who holds the bag on the place.

Maybe limbo inventory is a better term.

[housingcrashsurvivor]

I have no friend who would renege on their agreements.

The owner would be the title holder, regardless of financing.

As to mortgages not being paid, that info is known.

When someone isn't paying you what they owe you, you know it.

The banks know it too.

TransUnion Industry Insights Report: Q1 2014

The Industry Insights Report
Mortgages 2nd quarter 2014
The national mortgage delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) dropped for the tenth consecutive quarter, declining to 3.46% in Q2 2014.
The mortgage delinquency rate has now dropped nearly 20% in the last year.

Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rate Percentages, by State





So from that it looks like Florida is still at about twice the national average regarding delinquency rates on mortgage payments.

[mrviking]

That still makes over 92% that are current!! Not bad for a bunch of Min wage workers..

[Spring Hillian]

Originally Posted by mrviking

That still makes over 92% that are current!! Not bad for a bunch of Min wage workers..

Yep. Its those $10 an hour folks in the $200k homes driving late model vehicles, keeping restaurants and bars and everything else going. Just look at any morning traffic reports. All those people going to work in call centers, fast food operations, or just our for a leisurely morning drive.

[BucFan]

Originally Posted by BucFan

Do most reachers work 12 months out of the year? $4Ok for 8-9 months of work is pretty decent in addition to pension, medical, 401k.

Holy cow. I posted that? Thanks Android.

[Spring Hillian]

Such is the problem with our society. Buy a bottle of booze, drink 1/2 of it and take the other 1/2 back to the store and tell them you paid too much and want your full purchase price back.

Homeowners who bought homes that went "under water" and stopped paying the mortgage are criminals. They committed fraud. They signed legal documents regarding a loan. They walked away from their responsibilities for THEIR mistake. Nobody else's mistake except their own. Now they want the lenders to clean up their mess.

It may be dumb to pay over sticker price but these wanna be homeowners did pay too much because of their own greed. They figured their "investment" would continually rise in value. Since they had nothing in it in most cases they found it easy to either walk away or take advantage of a backlogged system that was not designed to process the ridiculous number of defaults.

These bums should be banned from obtaining any credit for the rest of their lives. They are bad news, bad risks and are morally corrupt.

Originally Posted by vCardData

Many homeowners were smartly advised to simply stop paying on homes that were severely underwater as well - especially second homes/vacation homes, investment properties/condos.


Several law firms in the area were advising the buyers that if they paid 350k for a home just a few years ago, and the same home now is 260K or maybe 285k, to simply walk away in that they will never ever recoup their loss in any reasonable time horizon - and that's smart - why would anyone pay for a house that they can never get their money out of ? why ? because of a credit reporting damage ? well that's less of a problem that what it used to be, even in getting new credit or buying another house . I have personally helped many people do just that. Heck in some cases, it was better to simply file bankruptcy on everything, and just get on down the road. The stigma doing that is essentially non-existent. Just ask Donald Trump. I have helped attorneys (yes attorneys), Dentists, Physicians, business owners, retail executives, hospital administrators, nurses, pharma sales execs, corporate managers, etc etc in this type of endeavor. The first task was for them to shift their mental gears about using the system, and not be concerned about what friends and family think - they don't count.


It's plain dumb to pay for a house that is hundreds of thousands of dollars underwater ! Of COURSE the bank wants you to keep paying for it ! ha ha.


It's about as dumb as fools paying OVER STICKER PRICE for a brand new model vehicle ! Now that's really stupid.

[Spring Hillian]

I dont care how YOU construe morality or anything else in the matter.
It is a matter of principle. You make a commitment, you stand by the commitment.
If you dont stand by your commitments you are a zero.

Originally Posted by vCardData

By the way friend, "MORALS" have nothing to do with it. Contract breaches are a fact of legal life.


Only a person like you would try to conflate "business decisions and civil legal process" with some sort of "morality" or moral construct.


It's a frigggen HOUSE, a structure - a CONTRACT.


There are no such things as "Debtors Prisons" you fool.

[Spring Hillian]

Trust me, I understand law, contracts, civil procedure. The problem is people who think like you do are spineless people with no morals, no sense of responsibility. You're expecting the Government and taxpayers to make you whole for your own mistake. Dumping personal mistakes on others.
How that is justified is beyond me.

Originally Posted by vCardData

You clearly do not understand the LAW, friend or are a demagogue.


A buyer who stops paying a loan is not a CRIMINAL under any known statute. It is not criminal or fraudulent to stop paying on any contract, unless the loan was applied for using patently false or stolen information. Yes, that's called "defrauding a Federally Insured Financial Institution".


Similarly a vehicle owner is not a CRIMINAL if he fails to pay his car note. The car simply gets repossessed. Nothing CRIMINAL about that. Are you nuts ?


GREED ? the homeowners ??? how stupid. The lenders got PAID for making the loans. NO lender was forced to make any loan. They got paid, sold the loan to FNMA or FreddyMac...quasi govt entitites, or gse's


Again, if you think a 'crime' was committed in most of these cases, you're a fool who doesn't understand contracts, civil procedure and the law in general.


Ignorant stuff

[kmarc]

Originally Posted by vCardData

Many homeowners were smartly advised to simply stop paying on homes that were severely underwater as well - especially second homes/vacation homes, investment properties/condos.


Several law firms in the area were advising the buyers that if they paid 350k for a home just a few years ago, and the same home now is 260K or maybe 285k, to simply walk away in that they will never ever recoup their loss in any reasonable time horizon - and that's smart - why would anyone pay for a house that they can never get their money out of ? why ? because of a credit reporting damage ? well that's less of a problem that what it used to be, even in getting new credit or buying another house . I have personally helped many people do just that. Heck in some cases, it was better to simply file bankruptcy on everything, and just get on down the road. The stigma doing that is essentially non-existent. Just ask Donald Trump. I have helped attorneys (yes attorneys), Dentists, Physicians, business owners, retail executives, hospital administrators, nurses, pharma sales execs, corporate managers, etc etc in this type of endeavor. The first task was for them to shift their mental gears about using the system, and not be concerned about what friends and family think - they don't count.


It's plain dumb to pay for a house that is hundreds of thousands of dollars underwater ! Of COURSE the bank wants you to keep paying for it ! ha ha.


It's about as dumb as fools paying OVER STICKER PRICE for a brand new model vehicle ! Now that's really stupid.

Heh, your figures above are almost exactly the figures my friend was dealing with, and he consulted a few attorneys before making the decision to default. It was a business decision on his part.