Should I Buy This House? (Seminole: crime, new house, neighborhood)

[housingcrashsurvivor]

Looks like that area is called Lowry Park Central. I've never driven through the side streets but have been on Waters there and at the Home Depot on Florida a number of times. Never stuck me as unsafe but I've really no idea.

RAIDS Online: Regional Analysis and Information Sharing shows in 1 month 17 crimes (including a scary arson two blocks away) and the same area, same criteria, for Seminole centered at Nebraska/Hillsborough shows 24 incidents during that period while Hyde Park centered at about Memorial hospital at Swann shows 21 incidents.

So at least for that random month checked, from today going back 30 days, using all the same criteria including geographic area size, there was less crime in your area of interest than either Seminole or Hyde.

The price seems high even though new contruction, however. Not only would you be in one of the priciest houses in the area, according to Zillow, but there's even an identical house on the same street on the same size lot asking less...

Real Estate - 424 Homes For Sale | Zillow

If I wanted to be in that area, I'd buy a better priced existing home and let someone else pay the bigger bucks for the infill new construction, only because, in this case, there seems a large enough difference between the two that even as markets improve I doubt one will catch up to the other any time soon. But if you plan to be in a house for many years, then by all means live in a place you will enjoy more, just expect it possibly being tougher to sell if time comes for that, than might a lower cost home there.

[bentlebee]

It is build by a private owner and regardless of having a realtor or not may not differ on the price you get but the agent is representing the other side not you!

Keep in mind when a private owner is building and represented they know what they are talking about so you better know what you are doing or get represented as well as it doesn't cost you money.

Good luck.

[BucFan]

building a modern style home in a community with 50 yr old houses seems like the house is out of place...you can do better for $185k, in nicer neighborhood where chain linked fences aren't everywhere - where there are sidewalks, no utility wires, etc etc......

[BucFan]

....look at your cross the street neighbor --does he even have a driveway or is that some sort of dirt path?

https://www.google.com/maps/place/83...171dca!6m1!1e1

[Not_liking_FL]

I'd pass on that house. If 185k is the low end of your budget I'd look at Seminole Heights. There are some really nice remodeled bungalows that are in a great location to downtown Tampa. Seminole Heights has been up-and-coming for some time. If you gave more details about your budget and what you want you'd probably get better recommendations on where to look.

Crime is going to be higher in these gentrifying areas compared to some far away suburb, but you likely won't have problems if you use common sense. IMO, these types of neighborhoods have so much more character than you'll find in the burbs, and you don't have to deal with the dreaded HOA. Good luck in your house hunting.

[housingcrashsurvivor]

Originally Posted by BucFan

....look at your cross the street neighbor --does he even have a driveway or is that some sort of dirt path?

https://www.google.com/maps/place/83...171dca!6m1!1e1

Looking at that google there's actually quite a bit of infill just on that street. I count about 8. So I don't know the character of the neighborhood but seems there's a draw to it. Or maybe someone got stuck with some properties. I don't know the backstory.

Looking at the OP's property. The current owner bought in 2007 which if I recall was that fakeout after the initial crash when a lot of people thought the slide was over. I know two people who bought then. One recently sold about 15% down.

So this guy paid for that property before building $95,000
He's built a 1542 square foot house plus garage
If he's a builder maybe he did it for what $70/square foot under air with no frills, just a wild guess on my part.
So that's $107,940. Okay, so he probably built for less.

So whether or not the land is worth that, I don't know. But by what this guy seems to have in it, not hugely over priced.

Looks like some of these other houses in there are going for between 50 & 75 so that much for that lot to build new plus demolition costs and that maybe comes out to 20k less than what this guy paid.

I'd base a price on current land values plus cost of construction plus profit on that.

The other house I mention in prior post, that land sold for $20k in 2013.

Here's another one 8109 Edison, infill house sold new at peak in 2005 for $240k after having sold also in 2005 (major scamming going on here) for 178k and the land sold in 2005 for 43k. wow.

And another at 8118. here's the one that tells the story. Bubble is year 2000 to 2005/6. So this one sold as vacant land in 1995 for 9500. They built a 1194 (heated area) sq ft house which sold for 79.9 in 97 and then 84.9 in 99. So the prebubble price per square foot there is about $71/square foot including land. or adjusted for cpi into today's dollars would be $100 square foot. given no gains over 15 years from year 2000 to 2015. which normally would see some gains.

And your guy is asking, what 120. That might be high but seems it would get over 100. let's look another way....

Assuming an existing 1000 sq ft building ,rounding it all out, from 70/sq ft in 1999 to 120 sq ft in 2015 is an annual rate of return of 3.4% which is running practically right alongside inflation with pretty much no gains and probably typical for US homes given that bubblecrash we experienced.

Looks to me, based on the above that between 100 & 120/sq ft is prebubble pricing. where you pay would depend in part on whether the neighborhood is improving or declining and, of course, how much you want it.

[EngGirl]

$185K for this house in this area? yeah, right...

[housingcrashsurvivor]

Another way to get a reasonable ballpark figure is to look at current rents and the current price to rent ratio.

By Zillow, that area seems to get about 1300 for a 3/2, pretty typical of Tampa area. Specifically I see 4/2's asking 1400 and some 3/2's asking around 12-1350 (add a premium for new) and 3/1's 2/2's getting 950 or so. Craigslist seems to be asking similar prices.

Historic rents there look considerably lower, however.

Also by Zillow the current price to rent ratio for Tampa is 9.35 so that give you 9.35 x 12 x 1300 = $145,860.

But it shows zip code 33604 ratio at 7.66 = $119.496

Now those ratios will also include I think apartments so houses may be more.

Here's a small house in there for $50k
https://tampa.craigslist.org/hil/reb/4970586805.html

You could probably buy that and demol for $50k and then build new $100,000 plus some profit for the builder and maybe you could do a new house in there for $160k. Just a rough guess.

[PhotoProIP]

Originally Posted by Concert D Major

http://www.realtor.com/realestateand...0-62341?row=10

It's new construction still in progress scheduled to be finished in November and my apartment lease ends in December so the timing is perfect. At $185,000 it's just under my budget. So tell me what's wrong with this and why I shouldn't go for it! What are some common problems I should watch out for? And, why do I need a real estate agent if it's brand new? Can I do this without an agent and then ask the seller to knock off 6%?

Other than the fact that its in a really crappy neighborhood...nothing I guess.

[PhotoProIP]

Looks like a flip to me....

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

Looking at that google there's actually quite a bit of infill just on that street. I count about 8. So I don't know the character of the neighborhood but seems there's a draw to it. Or maybe someone got stuck with some properties. I don't know the backstory.

Looking at the OP's property. The current owner bought in 2007 which if I recall was that fakeout after the initial crash when a lot of people thought the slide was over. I know two people who bought then. One recently sold about 15% down.

So this guy paid for that property before building $95,000
He's built a 1542 square foot house plus garage
If he's a builder maybe he did it for what $70/square foot under air with no frills, just a wild guess on my part.
So that's $107,940. Okay, so he probably built for less.

So whether or not the land is worth that, I don't know. But by what this guy seems to have in it, not hugely over priced.

Looks like some of these other houses in there are going for between 50 & 75 so that much for that lot to build new plus demolition costs and that maybe comes out to 20k less than what this guy paid.

I'd base a price on current land values plus cost of construction plus profit on that.

The other house I mention in prior post, that land sold for $20k in 2013.

Here's another one 8109 Edison, infill house sold new at peak in 2005 for $240k after having sold also in 2005 (major scamming going on here) for 178k and the land sold in 2005 for 43k. wow.

And another at 8118. here's the one that tells the story. Bubble is year 2000 to 2005/6. So this one sold as vacant land in 1995 for 9500. They built a 1194 (heated area) sq ft house which sold for 79.9 in 97 and then 84.9 in 99. So the prebubble price per square foot there is about $71/square foot including land. or adjusted for cpi into today's dollars would be $100 square foot. given no gains over 15 years from year 2000 to 2015. which normally would see some gains.

And your guy is asking, what 120. That might be high but seems it would get over 100. let's look another way....

Assuming an existing 1000 sq ft building ,rounding it all out, from 70/sq ft in 1999 to 120 sq ft in 2015 is an annual rate of return of 3.4% which is running practically right alongside inflation with pretty much no gains and probably typical for US homes given that bubblecrash we experienced.

Looks to me, based on the above that between 100 & 120/sq ft is prebubble pricing. where you pay would depend in part on whether the neighborhood is improving or declining and, of course, how much you want it.