Tampa Bay housing market on fire....still, in 2015! (Wesley Chapel, Trinity: cul-de-sac, foreclose)

[housingcrashsurvivor]

I did not mean by showing those charts that I'd advocate not buying. In fact I'd think this would be an opportunity lost, maybe not to buy someone's flip but particularly since you can still find deals where the house is sold for less than the cost of construction and with land and infrastructure thrown in for free. I doubt those conditions will last forever or might ever present themselves again. So while this isn't 2011, barring economic collapse, 2011 likely will never come around again.

Keep in mind too the population growth of this area...



Tampa Bay's Population Growth Surpasses Growth Rate of the Entire Nation | Tampa Bay Partnership

Tampa Bay's population is on the rise and is growing at a faster rate than that of the entire United States. From 2010-12, the eight-county Tampa Bay region has grown 1.92 percent, whereas the nation has grown only 1.48 percent. As a whole, the entire state of Florida's population is rising faster than both the nation and the South at 2.5 percent.

Tampa is currently indexed at (April 2015) 170.15 from being at 77.82 (April 1987), an annual increase of about 2.7%. Government CPI figures show the annual rate of inflation during that period to have been about 2.5% so by that very conservative figure, housing hasn't risen significantly over inflation over a period of 28 years here.

The USA in April 1987 indexed at 65 and today at 170.01, an annual rate of 3.5%.

So over the period of the last 28 years, Tampa has been running about 23% below the national annual increases.

In May 2006 Tampa was at 239.04 while the country was indexed at 184.38.

[EngGirl]

If anyone wants a good laugh - here is the link to new community coming to Wesley Chapel (July 25th is their grand opening date). A little background - prices starts at $274,900 for 1913 sq. ft. houses. HOA is over $300 per months (not sure if it includes CDD).
GLHOMES - the ridge at wiregrass grand opening guidelines
I don't remember when I had such a good laugh last time Tampa market is on FIRE!!! LOL

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

If anyone wants a good laugh - here is the link to new community coming to Wesley Chapel (July 25th is their grand opening date). A little background - prices starts at $274,900 for 1913 sq. ft. houses. HOA is over $300 per months (not sure if it includes CDD).
GLHOMES - the ridge at wiregrass grand opening guidelines
I don't remember when I had such a good laugh last time Tampa market is on FIRE!!! LOL

Maybe I missed something. What are you LOL over?

[EngGirl]

"Thank you so much for your interest in The Ridge at Wiregrass Ranch. We are anticipating a great turnout at the pre-construction lot release on Saturday, July 25, 2015 being held from the sales office located in The Ridge at Wiregrass Ranch community. If you are interested in sales information about The Ridge, the sales office will open to the general public at 10:00 AM on Saturday, July 25. However, if you want to take advantage of this exciting pre-construction opportunity and be one of the first to reserve a new home in The Ridge, the sales process will begin at approximately 8:30 AM using the policies and procedures below.
In order to make the lot selection and reservation process run as smoothly as possible, we want to let you know about some of the policies and procedures that will be in place for the lot release. Please read all of the following to make sure you are familiar with how the lot selection and reservation process will proceed on Saturday morning.
1. First-Come, First-Serve. Reservations for lots will be taken on a “first-come, first-serve” basis. We will allow cars to begin to line-up to establish the “priority order” at 8:00 AM on Saturday morning. Please understand that SR 56, outside The Ridge community, is a public right-of-way which does NOT have any areas to park or stop, even temporarily. Pasco County Sheriff’s Office deputies will be present to make sure that cars do not line up on SR 56, so please DO NOT try to form a line before 8:00 AM as you will be required to leave.
2. Priority Selection Number Distribution. Priority selection numbers will be distributed at The Ridge gatehouse beginning at 8:30 AM in the order that the cars arrive to form the line. The numbers will be handed out at the gatehouse only and therefore you must be in line in a motor vehicle to be able to receive a priority selection number. No one walking up to the gatehouse will receive a number. You may not receive a number for friends, relatives or any other potential buyer and your assigned number may only be used by you and may not be given or assigned to any other person or family members. Participants in The Ridge sales process will not be allowed entry to the community prior to 8:00 AM on Saturday morning."

^^^
I am sure there will be a line of cars at 6 am waiting to get a number to be the first to spend $300K+
LOL

[algiorda]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

^^^
I am sure there will be a line of cars at 6 am waiting to get a number to be the first to spend $300K+
LOL

I have to admit, that's pretty funny!!!

[bentlebee]

It does come across as "funny" but we have seen builders who are selling some lots (the best lots/home sites) pretty fast and than having to discount the less desirable lots that are in all communities but build in the price for the best lots as they are increased in price to upset the discount they end up giving on the less desirable lots.

In 2005 there were buyers sleeping in cars in front of the builders sales offices and at one point the list was so long and I was present at one place where it was kind of a lotto and tickets were given out and actually one of my kids was involved in calling the numbers.

I also remember being number 27 on the list and people backing out and ending up number 2 on the list when the sales started.

Nobody can predict what will happen and to see this in writing comes across as "funny" but there may already be buyers waiting to buy the best lots as this community seems to be more upscale and they seem to offer nice things.

[Irishiis49]

Funny you should mention The Ridge I just (today) received an email...I looked twice at the price and location...and immediately deleted the email...

[bentlebee]

Most likely like any other new build community in the Wesley Chapel area this community will have a CDD and a HOA fee.

[EngGirl]

bentlebee
I remember 2005 and that crazy time when everything was selling out like crazy. Heck, we got screwed because we signed the contract a day later they increased prices and they didn't care we were negotiating terms prior to price increase (yes, we used realtor ). But realistically, we are nowhere near that crazy time now.

The Ridge will have CDD and HOA. Last number I heard was somewhere around $325 per months and I am not sure if it was just HOA part of combined total between HOA and CDD. They have great clubhouse, pools, slide, playground, tennis and basketball courts planned. They have this fancy gate at the entrance off SR 56 for someone be there all the time to let cars in (? similar to Live Oak?). Not sure but it looks like it.
I will try my best to wake up and drive by to take a picture of cars lined up before official opening They will have sheriff's on the site to help with traffic LOL

By the way, Taylor Morrison announced pre-construction prices prior to opening Arbor Woods on SR 56. I am not sure how many people singed the contract based on these prices, but few months after that prices dropped by $5K. Since their pre-opening date (late 2013) and now prices increased by $5K or so. I will not be surprised to see prices going down for Ridge community as well

[bentlebee]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

bentlebee
I remember 2005 and that crazy time when everything was selling out like crazy. Heck, we got screwed because we signed the contract a day later they increased prices and they didn't care we were negotiating terms prior to price increase (yes, we used realtor ). But realistically, we are nowhere near that crazy time now.

The Ridge will have CDD and HOA. Last number I heard was somewhere around $325 per months and I am not sure if it was just HOA part of combined total between HOA and CDD. They have great clubhouse, pools, slide, playground, tennis and basketball courts planned. They have this fancy gate at the entrance off SR 56 for someone be there all the time to let cars in (? similar to Live Oak?). Not sure but it looks like it.
I will try my best to wake up and drive by to take a picture of cars lined up before official opening They will have sheriff's on the site to help with traffic LOL

By the way, Taylor Morrison announced pre-construction prices prior to opening Arbor Woods on SR 56. I am not sure how many people singed the contract based on these prices, but few months after that prices dropped by $5K. Since their pre-opening date (late 2013) and now prices increased by $5K or so. I will not be surprised to see prices going down for Ridge community as well

That is how it has been going for the last year in almost all communities but keep in mind the "best home sites" are gone right away in almost every community unless the location of the community is not as desired as some are not the best locations or wrong kind of models being build or as we have seen with Town homes without a garage and CDD and HOA fee which is a more difficult sell as well.

Builders are aware of this and know they will have to discount sites with power lines or weird angles on a lot, etc. so that will be expected in this community as well, UNLESS the demand is higher through out the period of selling.

The community location is very reasonable to major roads and the higher end approach may be working ...or not, we will wait and see but from the road this community is a nice adding to the area.