Tampa Bay 2015 Rain, Thunderstorm, Tropical Storm & Hurricane thread. (houses, parking)

[BucFan]

what the hell, live life on the wild side......

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by BucFan

what the hell, live life on the wild side......

Well $250 is not bad. It would be 15 times that much for my house.

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Why bother. I never had flood Ins and i am on the gulf in the worst zone.

Peace of mind. I always carry it, wherever I live. I just like knowing I am covered, as I have seen places flood that never should have.

[Not_liking_FL]

Some experts think Tampa is overdue for a major hurricane. What is going to make this disaster even worse is the complacency of many of the residence.

The flip side of years of no hurricanes: Good luck runs out

[BucFan]

I see what you did there (locked thread, tagged it onto another thread).

Complacency isn't a problem specific to Tampa only is it? I'm thinking it is a normal response by most cities along the water.

[housingcrashsurvivor]

No idea why other thread was locked but re:

Not_liking_FL
Location: Wake County, NC
2,712 posts, read 1,951,534 times
Reputation: 3160

Quote:
Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor
Anything else you try to make of it is your own imagination, not science.

Uh, no. I was going by the article which is using data from a MIT meteorology professor and The National Hurricane Center. Btw, I can't even tell where Tampa is on your charts.

Read more: Tampa is overdue for a major hurricane


For your trouble reading the chart, just find the Great Lakes and orient yourself by that.

As to my comment of imagination v science. You were using the imagination part of the article which also threw in some science.

I hadn't actually read your article until this last post. But in doing so I see it agrees with what I posted earlier that the odds work as do odds for the lottery...

your cited article from that thread The flip side of years of no hurricanes: Good luck runs out# :

"It may sound like areas like Tampa are "overdue," scientists like Landsea and Emanuel say that's not a good word because the odds of getting hit don't actually change because there were no storms the year before. They are the same year to year."

So if we get hit this year, that is not a function of not having been hit in the past. That is just a function of the odds which are the same every single year after year after year. Saying that your luck has run out is called imagination, not science.

If you don't believe that, then you should spend money on playing the lottery vigorously. Because by your logic, the more times you lose, the better chance you have of winning, when in reality, each time you play, each hurricane season, the odds reset to where they always were.

[MAniacTHW]

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

So if we get hit this year, that is not a function of not having been hit in the past. That is just a function of the odds which are the same every single year after year after year. Saying that your luck has run out is called imagination, not science.

If you don't believe that, then you should spend money on playing the lottery vigorously. Because by your logic, the more times you lose, the better chance you have of winning, when in reality, each time you play, each hurricane season, the odds reset to where they always were.

Just so you guys know, the article he's talking about came out in 2013.

Tampa Bay #1 of most vulnerable/overdue hurricane cities - WFLA News Channel 8

[Not_liking_FL]

Originally Posted by BucFan

I see what you did there (locked thread, tagged it onto another thread).

Wow, I can't get anything past your eagle eyes. Nice work, detective.

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

No idea why other thread was locked but re:

Not_liking_FL
Location: Wake County, NC
2,712 posts, read 1,951,534 times
Reputation: 3160

Quote:
Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor
Anything else you try to make of it is your own imagination, not science.

Uh, no. I was going by the article which is using data from a MIT meteorology professor and The National Hurricane Center. Btw, I can't even tell where Tampa is on your charts.

Read more: Tampa is overdue for a major hurricane


For your trouble reading the chart, just find the Great Lakes and orient yourself by that.

As to my comment of imagination v science. You were using the imagination part of the article which also threw in some science.

I hadn't actually read your article until this last post. But in doing so I see it agrees with what I posted earlier that the odds work as do odds for the lottery...

your cited article from that thread The flip side of years of no hurricanes: Good luck runs out# :

"It may sound like areas like Tampa are "overdue," scientists like Landsea and Emanuel say that's not a good word because the odds of getting hit don't actually change because there were no storms the year before. They are the same year to year."

So if we get hit this year, that is not a function of not having been hit in the past. That is just a function of the odds which are the same every single year after year after year. Saying that your luck has run out is called imagination, not science.

If you don't believe that, then you should spend money on playing the lottery vigorously. Because by your logic, the more times you lose, the better chance you have of winning, when in reality, each time you play, each hurricane season, the odds reset to where they always were.

I'm well aware how odds work, and I don't recall saying Tampa's "luck has run out". The title to the article stated that. The article was going by historical data, so going by that I'd say Tampa is overdue. Thanks for the tip on reading the charts you posted.

Originally Posted by MAniacTHW

Just so you guys know, the article he's talking about came out in 2013.

Tampa Bay #1 of most vulnerable/overdue hurricane cities - WFLA News Channel 8

The article I posted came out yesterday, but thanks for posting another article with different experts saying the same thing.

[Not_liking_FL]

Spring Hillian posted this excellent storm surge map in my thread yesterday before it was locked. I thought moving it over here would be a good idea.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Sto...afc059635a82ee

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by Not_liking_FL

Spring Hillian posted this excellent storm surge map in my thread yesterday before it was locked. I thought moving it over here would be a good idea.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Sto...afc059635a82ee

I love that map.