Is Tampa Bay in housing bubble? (Spring Hill, Sarasota: median income, property tax, living in)

[Thundarr457]

I agree Tampa/St Pete real estate is overpriced. When you factor in the high taxes, utilities and insurance its getting out of reach for a lot of people. As prices increase, taxes and insurance follow suit. Since many current homeowners are covered by the "Save Our Homes" amendment, taxes are not an issue for them but they can double or triple or more for the next owner. If you can afford it and plan to stay for the long term it should work out as these things are cyclical. This is currently a seller market and in a year or 2 most likely will turn into a buyers market.

[lavender]

Forbes Welcome

Homes are likely to have more pressure put on them as the numbers (last year it was 1000 families per day into FL, this year it is higher, its in all the enquiries I get from out of state buyers) grow. There is still affordable property but those who want to be in the low prices under $300k for a family home with pool are having to look to resales and new builds on the outskirts of the major centers here in the Tampa Bay Area.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/karstens.../#58b771e23e91

There were lots of empty homes here that were underwater properties during the slump, but they are for the most part rented, and there is not enough inventory still. Flood insurance situation will affect (apparently) 50,000 of the homes that require flood insurance - approximately 145,000 homes in Pinellas county that require flood insurance. There are over 505,000 homes in Pinellas county and despite that prices are rising, albeit it gently. There is little 'bargain basement' property available and that there is, is generally in a bad way. The foreign market has all but died with strength of the dollar, but still the enquiries come from all over the USA, right now I am working with buyers from CA, NJ, PA, and one United Kingdom (some still have money after Brexit!)

I think home prices are not in a bubble, I believe it is more that they are at the right price, but if more pressure if put on them
they will naturally rise as the law of economics and supply and demand come in to play. The banks are not giving stuff away anymore and although I don't like banks and their practices, why should they?

Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics & Foreclosure Trends Summary | RealtyTrac

These stats are quite interesting, as they show increase in price, but less buyers, than a year ago, which could indicate that the market is stable, rather than in a bubble. People are potentially holding back until after November too but people are still moving for jobs, escaping the cruel winters up north, and even leaving the fire storms and earthquakes and real floods of other southern states.

[SJNE17]

macro stats are one thing but you need to be at the ground level to understand who the buyers are to get a good read on what's what. so many markets are micro. if it's a flipper buying from a flipper, that's bad. if there's a mortgage and the home is owner occupied by first time homebuyer or person(s) purchasing as primary (but were previously homeowners), that's generally good. it means assets and job/income supports that home's purchase.

[Iching]

Originally Posted by Thundarr457

I agree Tampa/St Pete real estate is overpriced. When you factor in the high taxes, utilities and insurance its getting out of reach for a lot of people. As prices increase, taxes and insurance follow suit. Since many current homeowners are covered by the "Save Our Homes" amendment, taxes are not an issue for them but they can double or triple or more for the next owner. If you can afford it and plan to stay for the long term it should work out as these things are cyclical. This is currently a seller market and in a year or 2 most likely will turn into a buyers market.

I told you to stay in Buffalo. Stop spreading bs stories regarding property taxes. What are you paying? $50 per $1,000?

[Pragmaticus]

I think most people don't understand is that if you are selling NOW, for example, and bank the profit and be a renter or down size, that's the only way you are really benefiting. Most just buy a bigger home and put more money into the market, only to see it evaporate year or two down the road even before they break even in their transaction cost.

Just for fun, I tracked people who sold at the top of the market in my neighborhood. What did they do? Most pocketed few hundred thousand dollar and turn right back and bought a huge house few miles away also at the top of the market. When the housing market crashed, they lost even more now because they are more leveraged at the high price house than they were before, while losing about 10% transaction cost for the privilege of losing it all . It is one thing to be an investor and buying other homes when prices are low but it is completely another thing for average people trying to benefit from housing cyclic boom and bust on the house they need to live in. That's why we resisted this starter home and upgrade crap every so many years.

Of course, if you have to move because of jobs or other circumstance, that's a different story. But upgrading to bigger house? That's one thing we won't do. It simply is a financial suicide blowing yourself up.

[Thundarr457]

Originally Posted by Iching

I told you to stay in Buffalo. Stop spreading bs stories regarding property taxes. What are you paying? $50 per $1,000?

Its not BS because you can check the property taxes on a house you plan to purchase from the Pinellas County website which is extremely helpful. Just because the property taxes are high in Buffalo doesn't mean they are low in Pinellas, one has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the other. Taxes here are around 2.5 -3% and have been so for ages. The housing here is much cheaper so your net tax bill is lower. Go to this website and decide for yourself.

http://www.pcpao.org/

[Pragmaticus]

Originally Posted by jean-lissette

Only a novice or a fool would think that Tampa Bay's housing market is fairly priced. In key enclaves and price points around the Bay, from Westchase in TPA down to over the Skyway in Manatee and Sarasota counties, the house prices are way over-priced per square foot. Real estate agents aren't degreed economists or market analysts. They are the equivalent of a licensed used car salesman. They wouldn't be able to identify a trough or a market breakout, or resistance if their lives depended on it. In fact, a lot of the artificial price inflation happens at the hands of salespeople over-hyping the market or key developments which contributes to false market "price support" in re "comparables" which has a contagion effect for pricing models in neighboring communities. Sales people do this all the time because it serves their own interests, i.e. 6% on 275k is better than 6% on 240k. The big track developers such as Lennar, Toll, et al are known for this tactic. They essentially "set" their own comps !

What is "even" or "fair" price per square foot you came up with for the vast area you mentioned, for all housing price range?

While I agree that home price might be getting higher every month, which must be scary for those entering the market, putting a $/sq.ft on the entire housing price distribution is simply foolish. The $/sq.ft is not constant over a range of home prices at all.

[Thundarr457]

I remember seeing a Florida Realtor on CNN 10 years ago just before the bubble burst saying how prices were not too high and would keep going up, etc, etc. I have been closely following Tampa and Naples for the last few years and the prices are getting close if not near the top. People now are getting out while they can and who can blame them. I doubt if St Pete will crash since its such a lovely high demand area but its getting out of reach for a lot of folks. Flood insurance will begin to rise after the 2 year moratorium. Taxes for current homeowners are capped at 3% increase per year so the new ones will get gouged to subsidize them. If I had moved there years ago I would be in paradise with a much more valuable home and little tax increase every year.

[Pragmaticus]

Originally Posted by Thundarr457

I remember seeing a Florida Realtor on CNN 10 years ago just before the bubble burst saying how prices were not too high and would keep going up, etc, etc. I have been closely following Tampa and Naples for the last few years and the prices are getting close if not near the top. People now are getting out while they can and who can blame them. I doubt if St Pete will crash since its such a lovely high demand area but its getting out of reach for a lot of folks. Flood insurance will begin to rise after the 2 year moratorium. Taxes for current homeowners are capped at 3% increase per year so the new ones will get gouged to subsidize them. If I had moved there years ago I would be in paradise with a much more valuable home and little tax increase every year.

You can still move and be in paradise in a few years. Paradise is a state of mind, you can create it where you are too. It is hell here for some people.

Back to the topic at hand, Tampa metro area, with median housing price of 170K or so is still way lower than other comparable metro area. The only reason it is not sky rocketing is because household income in general for the bay area hasn't risen much yet. I am not talking about pockets of desirable areas where median homes are selling >300K.

[Thundarr457]

I can be in paradise if I don't go broke first. If a major hurricane ever hits Tampa and God forbid it ever does it would be a nightmare. Median house prices mean nothing because there can be pockets of rundown ghetto housing that lowers the median. The Tampa Bay area is expensive and getting more so as are a lot of areas in Florida. The market will always prevail. We can post on here from now til doomsday and it won't matter one bit because its only conjecture.