Tampa is due for a major hurricane and isn't prepared (article) (2015, mobile home)

[phoenixmike11]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/class...=.27c6449a0515

[LKJ1988]

Been around 100 years since 1921 so no one alive was around then anyways. Lived here all my life since 1963 and never seen anything close in all these years. Strongest storm i lived thru was the no name storm on March 13th 1993. I would have been 80 miles offshore that friday nite if it were not for the boat getting out of dry dock late. 30ft seas and a few boats were lost as no one had a clue what was coming.


You bet no one here has a clue what it would be like with a strong CAT5 coming up the pipe from the southwest making landfall just north of Tarpon springs. 25ft+ of water pushed up the bay jay. With a strong Cat 5 with gust to 200 mph there won't be anything left to come home to.

[SympaticoLibre]

People have been saying Tampa isn't prepared for anything since we've owned property here in the 70s

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by SympaticoLibre

People have been saying Tampa isn't prepared for anything since we've owned property here in the 70s

Since we never get bad weather peeps are fooled and can't even begin to understand what 150mph+ winds are like man. I can't even get rain in the summer let alone a cane jane.

[BucFan]

Originally Posted by SympaticoLibre

People have been saying Tampa isn't prepared for anything since we've owned property here in the 70s

Whether you own property is irrelevant. The population and emergency response aren't ready. We see it simply with regional flooding. It becomes a circus.

[sinatras]

if i hear someone say one more time "hurricanes don't come here".............
people here are in TOTAL DENIAL and its going to be bad and its not a question of IF but WHEN
it will make katrina look like a minor mishap


when everything is obliterated of course all these people in denial will cry for help from the government

and nobody in the rest of the country will care because everyone will think "serves them right for living there"

[kmarc]

and nobody in the rest of the country will care because everyone will think "serves them right for living there"

Not if the big one hits California first.

[mph101]

Katrina was no category 3 in NO, on the west weakening side of a powerful but weakening cat 3 from a out to sea cat 5 due east at landfall in MS. The storm surge was the culprit, it followed the weaking hurricane, which did not hit New Orleans directly. Every storm is different these general terms about category 3 to 5 need a lot better science and specific terms.

Andrew a land falling cat5 , storm surge wasn't any major deal. Similar with another small tight cat 4 hurricane charley in 2004. Meanwhile weaker rain Ladin tropical storms can wreck havoc and have due to flooding.

The evacuation zones issued by the NHC are on storm surge projections based on the category of the cyclone, not winds. Except for mobile homes. Therefore in St Petersburg all of midtown would be voluntarily, no mandates for leaving. That land is amongst the highest in the city from flood threat, unlike similar neighborhoods in New Orleans. No doubt a cat 3 or 4 storm would wipe out many/most buildings in mid town but the won't be hit by tidal surge.

The local government can issue evacuation orders based on wind emergency inland but that is not what the NHC does.

People with pets and no money they aren't leaving, where would they go outside of local shelter? Once you leave any area regardless if the storm hits or misses, criminals don't leave. Its a field day for thieves. If the hurricane does hit the owner isnt allowed back in to see what is left. But the thieves are still there as the never left to loot all they can.

My point is most people don't understand evacuation levels, just like what qualifies for a severe thunderstorm, because lightning has nothing to with that. As well a strong hurricane generally but not always offers worse flooding. Projection of the storm and size is everything not just strengths at landfall.

Big storms like cat 5 katrina and Ivan weren't cat 5 at landfall but the surge was. I was directly in 1989 Hugo west of Charleston and I thought if something like this hits tampa bay the chaos and destruction would be hard to imagine. Hugo really was a stunning benchmark in my life. The incredible power of nature and thankful my home was 600 miles SW as dawn broke.

[bobandsherry]

If they say it often enough, eventually they'll be right.

Same basic story in 2016.

And in 2015.

And in 2014 (this is basically same story from 2016 - same newspaper

And in 2013 (same newspaper as 2016 and 2014, same basic story - seeing a pattern yet?)

And reported as most vulnerable in 2012 too.

And oh my, again in 2011 by the Tampa Bay Times.

Welp, I think point is made. Report this story each year and then if/when it does happen they'll be first to say "see, we called it".

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Been around 100 years since 1921 so no one alive was around then anyways. Lived here all my life since 1963 and never seen anything close in all these years. Strongest storm i lived thru was the no name storm on March 13th 1993. I would have been 80 miles offshore that friday nite if it were not for the boat getting out of dry dock late. 30ft seas and a few boats were lost as no one had a clue what was coming.


You bet no one here has a clue what it would be like with a strong CAT5 coming up the pipe from the southwest making landfall just north of Tarpon springs. 25ft+ of water pushed up the bay jay. With a strong Cat 5 with gust to 200 mph there won't be anything left to come home to.

It would be hard to get a hurricane that strong to hit at that angle. Unless it's moving fast like Charley, it would weaken due to the shelf waters and being over the shelf for a long stretch.

The shelf waters close to shore are actually warmer than in the middle of the gulf due to heating from the land, however these waters are shallow and cool water gets stirred up fast since there isn't a lot of deep heat content like you have in the middle of the loop current or in the Caribbean Sea.

The best chance to get a cat5 would be a storm moving quickly like Charley, only a bit further north.

Tampa could certainly get a cat4, but a 160mph storm all the right things would have to come together just perfect.