holy real estate prices (Tampa, Riverview: mortgages, loan, houses)

[Irishiis49]

Was looking at homes down in St. Pete off 4th. The agent said the market has cooled slightly in other places in Pinellas but not down there, unfortunately for me...we have a home to sell and many sellers won't take a contingency...Currently in Ozona which I love but want to be closer to son, DIL and future grandbabies...

[Roscoe Conkling]

Originally Posted by kmarc

^^^^This, exactly. Interesting article today on ZeroHedge regarding housing

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...housing-market

Excerpt:

"Our good friend John Rubino over at DollarCollapse.com just released an analysis titled US Housing Bubble Enters Stage 2: Suddenly Motivated Sellers.

He reminds us that housing bubbles follow a predictable progression:

Stage 1: Mania -- Prices rise at an accelerating rate as factors like excess central bank liquidity/low credit standards/hot foreign money drive a virtuous bidding cycle well above sustainably afforable levels.

Stage 2: Peak -- Increasingly jittery owners attempt to sell out before the party ends. Supply jumps as prices stagnate.

Stage 3: Bust -- As inventory builds, sellers start having to lower prices. This begins a vicious cycle : buyers go on strike not wanting to catch a falling knife, causing sellers to drop prices further.

Rubino cites recent statistics that may indicate the US national housing market is finally entering Stage 2 after a rip-roaring decade of recovery since the bursting of the 2007 housing bubble:

the supply of homes for sale during the "all important" spring market rose at 3x last year's rate

30 of America's 100 largest cities now have more inventory than they did a year ago, and

mortage applications for new homes dropped 9% YoY

Taken together, these suggest that residential housing supply is increasing as sales slow, exactly what you'd expect to see in the transition from Stage 1 to Stage 2"

Remember the mantra from the last bubble? "Real Estate only goes up". Really?

I've lived through three property crashes and I tell you this for nothing real estate in Florida isn't even anywhere near the end of Stage One.
In my experience people talking up crashes are simply those who didn't get on the rollercoaster when it was at the bottom of the dip.
Getting off at the top ? That's the real skill.
And THE.VERY.LAST people you should listen to about prices are realtors.
I've yet to meet one who can move their lips without lying.
All real estate crashes happen when people can't afford to get on the bottom rung of the ladder even for the crappiest property - that's why it's called a ladder.
There is plenty of cheap inventory out there.

[kmarc]

Originally Posted by Roscoe Conkling

I've lived through three property crashes and I tell you this for nothing real estate in Florida isn't even anywhere near the end of Stage One.
In my experience people talking up crashes are simply those who didn't get on the rollercoaster when it was at the bottom of the dip.
Getting off at the top ? That's the real skill.
And THE.VERY.LAST people you should listen to about prices are realtors.
I've yet to meet one who can move their lips without lying.
All real estate crashes happen when people can't afford to get on the bottom rung of the ladder even for the crappiest property - that's why it's called a ladder.
There is plenty of cheap inventory out there.

So....it's different this time?

[Roscoe Conkling]

Originally Posted by kmarc

So....it's different this time?

Nope.
All real estate prices rise and fall in peaks and troughs.
This one is still at base camp.

[sinatras]

Originally Posted by Roscoe Conkling

Nope.
All real estate prices rise and fall in peaks and troughs.
This one is still at base camp.

In my neck of the woods people are tearing down $725,000 houses.
That seems pretty "PEAK BUBBLE" to me!!!!!!!!!!!

This house sold for $725,000 in March. Already torn down to make way for another mega mansion.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sal...04_rect/17_zm/

[Pragmaticus]

It is simple economics, if the local economy can't support housing price (wages has stagnated like forever in real dollars in Tampa Bay are as far as we can tell), the bubble is being supported by external money, which will stop the moment the economy on the other side have some shock. Obviously, the economy is complex and even those who do this for a living can't pinpoint when the next crush will occur. But those who live within their means and have plan will survive, as always.

Expansion and contraction of the economy is a normal phenomenon throughout history. Expect contraction as we are in an extended expansion right now. The question is how deep the contraction would be, not if one will come soon. Most economist believe within the next two years there is about 90% chance on getting into one. Of course, there is a chance we may not see one in the next two years. That doesn't make me to ignore their opinion. You take it or leave it.

[LKJ1988]

It never came back in my area.

[McBain II]

Originally Posted by Pragmaticus

It is simple economics, if the local economy can't support housing price (wages has stagnated like forever in real dollars in Tampa Bay are as far as we can tell), the bubble is being supported by external money, which will stop the moment the economy on the other side have some shock.

That's what I'm thinking. The prices are climbing far outside what the service/tourism employees are going to be able to afford in this area. Even some healthcare workers are being priced out of the market.

If the workers that the local economy depends on can't afford to live here anymore, that simply isn't sustainable.

[Roscoe Conkling]

Originally Posted by McBain II

That's what I'm thinking. The prices are climbing far outside what the service/tourism employees are going to be able to afford in this area. Even some healthcare workers are being priced out of the market.

If the workers that the local economy depends on can't afford to live here anymore, that simply isn't sustainable.

Exactly my point.
But this situation doesn't simply arrive overnight.It takes years of silly prices before the bubble finally bursts.
It's simply my view that we are still in the early stages of the silliness.
The economy is expanding and people are working and that in itself is enough to sustain the real estate market for come home yet.

[DUNNDFRNT]

Originally Posted by McBain II

That's what I'm thinking. The prices are climbing far outside what the service/tourism employees are going to be able to afford in this area. Even some healthcare workers are being priced out of the market.

If the workers that the local economy depends on can't afford to live here anymore, that simply isn't sustainable.

My wife and I both work remotely. I work in a company out of NYC, she works for a company out of silicon valley. We both get paid comparable to our peers who work and live locally. In my block there is I would say at least 25% closer to half of the households work remotely.