U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Tennessee
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
 
Old 10-11-2016, 09:45 PM
 
11,603 posts, read 31,766,251 times
Reputation: 8203

Advertisements

American City Business Journals, publisher of business newspapers around the country including the Nashville Business Journal and the Memphis Business Journal, has crunched some numbers to come up with population projections for the 933 metropolitan and micropolitan areas across the country through the year 2040. Since it's absurd to pretend to know what's going to happen 20+ years in the future, I'm going to just show the population projections for Tennessee's metropolitan and micropolitan areas through the year 2025. Take all this with a grain of salt, of course, as who knows what could happen. A single, major economic development could make all the difference in some of the smaller areas.

The areas are ranked according to their 2025 population projections.

area...2015 pop...2025 pop...change
  1. Nashville...1,830,345...2,165,296...334,951
  2. Memphis...1,344,127...1,379,506...35,379
  3. Knoxville...861,424...907,735...46,311
  4. Chattanooga...547,776...579,466...31,690
  5. Clarksville...281,021...323,483...42,462
  6. Kingsport-Bristol...307,120...301,408...-5,712
  7. Johnson City...200,648...204,887...4,239
  8. Cleveland...120,864...129,675...8,811
  9. Jackson...129,682...129,036...-646
  10. Morristown...116,642...121,847...5,205
  11. Cookeville...108,191...113,502...5,311
  12. Sevierville...95,946...109,557...13,611
  13. Tullahoma...102,048...104,724...2,676
  14. Greeneville...68,580...68,705...125
  15. Crossville...58,229...63,120...4,891
  16. Athens...52,639...52,802...163
  17. Shelbyville...47,183...52,220...5,037
  18. Lawrenceburg...42,564...43,357...793
  19. McMinnville...40,435...41,058...623
  20. Dyersburg...37,893...36,836...-1,057
  21. Newport...35,162...34,367...-795
  22. Dayton...32,526...33,877...1,351
  23. Lewisburg...31,552...33,749...2,197
  24. Union City...36,877...33,716...-3,161
  25. Martin...33,960...32,181...-1,779
  26. Paris...32,147...31,663...-484
  27. Brownsville...18,023...16,534...-1,489

http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjourna...sdatabase.html
__________________


IMPORTANT READING:
Terms of Service

---
its - possession
it's - contraction of it is
your - possession
you're - contraction of you are
their - possession
they're - contraction of they are
there - referring to a place
loose - opposite of tight
lose - opposite of win
who's - contraction of who is
whose - possession
Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-12-2016, 06:49 AM
 
Location: Johnson City, TN
597 posts, read 628,740 times
Reputation: 390
Looks legit although I'm surprised Knoxville is outpacing Chattanooga in growth; I thought it would be the other way around. Also, what is driving Clarksville's growth? Is it simply the proximity to Nashville or is the military a driving factor where a major downsizing at Ft. Campbell would affect things drastically?

Sad to see Kingsport-Bristol's decline but with the decreased viability of coal and low-skill manufacturing it is no surprise. It's interesting, though, that Johnson City nearly offsets Kingsport-Bristol's losses. This really illustrates the shifting of power and influence within the Tri-Cities.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-12-2016, 08:06 AM
 
6,385 posts, read 10,362,926 times
Reputation: 6528
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rangerred View Post
Is it simply the proximity to Nashville or is the military a driving factor where a major downsizing at Ft. Campbell would affect things drastically?
Yes to both. Any decisions involving Ft. Campbell will have a major, major impact on that area. If they closed the base, it could essentially split apart that metro (Clarksville and Hopkinsville), with Clarksville becoming more interactive/dependent on the Nashville area.

On the flip side, the military could always consolidate more operations to Ft. Campbell and boost the growth.

Over time, I do believe proximity to Nashville will have a greater effect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rangerred View Post
Sad to see Kingsport-Bristol's decline but with the decreased viability of coal and low-skill manufacturing it is no surprise. It's interesting, though, that Johnson City nearly offsets Kingsport-Bristol's losses. This really illustrates the shifting of power and influence within the Tri-Cities.
This is where a lot of these projections get tricky. Kingsport and Bristol don't suffer so much from population loss (net migration) as they suffer from lack of gain (birth rate). If job opportunities can be improved, it would really stabilize the area because they could keep a lot of those ETSU grads close...
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-12-2016, 08:23 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
20,947 posts, read 15,267,317 times
Reputation: 23722
Surprised to see the speculated gains for Morristown - doesn't make much sense as it's really struggling economically.

I work in Kingsport and live closest to Kingsport but almost never spend money in Kingsport aside from going to lunch or something. If I'm out on the weekend or want something other than fast food/chain, I never go to Kingsport. I do almost all of my shopping in the other two cities, outside the area, or off Amazon - it is rare that I even get groceries in Kingsport. Other than the gym, I do almost nothing in Kingsport.

The fact that I am in Kingsport 9+ hours a day and do so little here is telling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nashvols View Post
This is where a lot of these projections get tricky. Kingsport and Bristol don't suffer so much from population loss (net migration) as they suffer from lack of gain (birth rate). If job opportunities can be improved, it would really stabilize the area because they could keep a lot of those ETSU grads close...
The median age in Johnson City is 37 - in Kingsport, it's 42. I'd wager JC's is lower in reality as some of the college students are from out of the area or even out of the country and aren't counted. After living in a major metro with a more normal age distribution, it seems that there are just lots and lots of seniors anywhere you go in Kingsport at any time of the day.

We have a pretty good, locally owned, sit down restaurant near where I work and other than the lunch crowd, their customer base is probably majority 65+ - go in there and it looks a senior center. I've been to several local restaurants in Johnson City over the last few weeks and the age distribution is much younger. There's really little for people under 30 or so, especially single people, to do in Kingsport. Kingsport's government has been slow to do anything to make the city more attractive to younger people, interesting businesses haven't formed like they have in JC, etc.

I wouldn't say that job creation is the biggest rub here - it's more of an issue where because Kingsport already skews older, many younger people who may have jobs in Kingsport choose to move to Johnson City to be around other younger people.

I'll probably be purchasing a house by spring and Kingsport is basically off my list already, even though I work here. I also don't see property in Kingsport, especially the core city, appreciating the way that JC's property probably will.

Last edited by Serious Conversation; 10-12-2016 at 08:41 AM..
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-12-2016, 08:44 AM
 
11,603 posts, read 31,766,251 times
Reputation: 8203
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
Surprised to see the speculated gains for Morristown - doesn't make much sense as it's really struggling economically.
I think it's because Jefferson County is included in the Morristown MSA, and Jefferson County, which is located next to Knox County, is doing ok. Frankly, I'm surprised that Jefferson County is in the Morristown MSA and not the Knoxville MSA considering how many people in Jefferson County (especially Dandridge) commute to the Knoxville area for work and such.
__________________


IMPORTANT READING:
Terms of Service

---
its - possession
it's - contraction of it is
your - possession
you're - contraction of you are
their - possession
they're - contraction of they are
there - referring to a place
loose - opposite of tight
lose - opposite of win
who's - contraction of who is
whose - possession
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-12-2016, 10:43 AM
 
1,380 posts, read 1,775,504 times
Reputation: 2364
I'm surprised to see Johnson City as a seperate metro from Kingsport-Bristol. Granted, I'm not very familiar with that end of the state. Anybody with more experience in Upper East Tennessee have an opinion about this?
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-12-2016, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
20,947 posts, read 15,267,317 times
Reputation: 23722
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastmemphisguy View Post
I'm surprised to see Johnson City as a seperate metro from Kingsport-Bristol. Granted, I'm not very familiar with that end of the state. Anybody with more experience in Upper East Tennessee have an opinion about this?
I think it's kind of stupid. You have commuters going between the cities all the time. It's not large enough in my opinion to be two separate metros and they operate as three feuding cities.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-12-2016, 12:03 PM
 
Location: Johnson City, TN
597 posts, read 628,740 times
Reputation: 390
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastmemphisguy View Post
I'm surprised to see Johnson City as a seperate metro from Kingsport-Bristol. Granted, I'm not very familiar with that end of the state. Anybody with more experience in Upper East Tennessee have an opinion about this?
They used to be a single metro until the early 2000's. It is still a combined statistical area (CSA) consisting of the two metros. The reason for this is there is not enough social and economic interaction between the two areas to justify a single MSA but enough interaction still exists for it to be a CSA. Each metro has a fairly independent economy, a major hospital, and share many of the same retailers and chain restaurants. It is commonplace for a retailer or restaurant to open a Kinsport or Bristol location simultaneously with a Johnson City location. Other than a handful of large employers such as Eastman in Kingsport or ETSU in JC, the region is economically divided and this can be mapped out in commuting and spending patterns.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-12-2016, 12:44 PM
 
Location: Seattle
6,486 posts, read 13,779,346 times
Reputation: 2764
Metro areas are established by core county (or counties) in addition to any adjacent counties with a high degree of "inclusion," which I think is mostly determined by commuting patterns.

The Tri-Cities CSA has been split into two MSAs for a long while now. It was definitely that way when I lived there, 2007-2012 ish. Most of the folks who work in Johnson City truly do live in Washington County, Carter County or Unicoi County. There definitely is some intracommuting between Washington and Sullivan counties, but (clearly) most folks who work in Kingsport or Bristol live in Sullivan County, Hawkins County or Virginia.

Two MSAs really serves to underline the differences between the Tri-Cities and the fact that folks in Johnson City just don't get out to Kingsport or Bristol too often. The only reason I ever went to Bristol was for Rhythm and Roots.
Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


 
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Options
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2016 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Tennessee
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top