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Old 10-06-2017, 08:36 PM
 
13,350 posts, read 39,943,010 times
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The Tennessee State Data Center at the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee has analyzed population statistics and has made projections for each county in Tennessee through the year 2070. Here's the methodology:

http://tndata.utk.edu/Data/Harris%20...e%20092517.pdf

Since the vast majority of us won't be around in 2070, and since it's almost absurd to assume that current trends will continue 53 years in the future, I'm posting what they figure the population will be in 2030.

First, the metropolitan areas (just the portions within Tennessee):

metro area...2030 population...change from 2016...% change
  • Chattanooga...442,957...41,876...10.4%
  • Clarksville...254,640...58,906...30.1%
  • Cleveland...133,381...12,119...10.0%
  • Jackson...134,384...4,857...3.7%
  • Johnson City...213,448...11,787...5.8%
  • Kingsport-Bristol...209,802...-3,428...-1.6%
  • Knoxville...950,824...82,278...9.5%
  • Memphis...1,101,877...66,381...6.4%
  • Morristown...126,780...9,460...8.0%
  • Nashville...2,260,942...395,644...21.2%

Here's what they project to be the 20 largest counties in Tennessee in 2030.

rank...county...2030 pop...change from 2016...% change...2016 rank
  1. Shelby...986,447...51,844...5.5%...1
  2. Davidson...783,345...98,935...14.5%...2
  3. Knox...509,363...53,231...11.7%...3
  4. Rutherford...414,119...105,868...34.3%...5
  5. Hamilton...396,019...38,281...10.7%...4
  6. Williamson...295,235...76,128...34.7%...6
  7. Montgomery...254,640...58,906...30.1%...7
  8. Sumner...219,175...39,112...21.7%...8
  9. Wilson...166,782...34,001...25.6%...10
  10. Sullivan...154,279...-2,388...-1.5%...9
  11. Blount...146,031...17,361...13.5%...11
  12. Washington...142,166...14,726...11.6%...12
  13. Bradley...116,185...11,695...11.2%...13
  14. Sevier...114,824...18,151...18.8%...15
  15. Maury...105,166...15,185...16.9%...16
  16. Madison...101,186...3,523...3.6%...14
  17. Putnam...85,043...9,112...12.0%...18
  18. Robertson...80,039...10,874...15.7%...19
  19. Anderson...79,329...3,393...4.5%...17
  20. Tipton...68,910...7,607...12.4%...22

And what the heck, here's the projected top 20 for 2070:
  1. Shelby...1,246,481
  2. Davidson...1,117,678
  3. Rutherford...731,646
  4. Knox...654,871
  5. Hamilton...512,456
  6. Williamson...474,699
  7. Montgomery...454,933
  8. Sumner...318,103
  9. Wilson...248,494
  10. Blount...182,606
  11. Washington...176,047
  12. Sevier...160,083
  13. Bradley...150,214
  14. Maury...141,943
  15. Sullivan...141,394
  16. Madison...117,435
  17. Robertson...105,633
  18. Putnam...105,225
  19. Hamblen...87,190
  20. Tipton...84,808

And the metropolitan areas in 2070 (the portions within Tennessee):
  • Chattanooga...565,091
  • Clarksville...454,933
  • Cleveland...166,850
  • Jackson...153,290
  • Johnson City...235,118
  • Kingsport-Bristol...187,737
  • Knoxville...1,142,428
  • Memphis...1,389,926
  • Morristown...152,226
  • Nashville...3,359,019
The entire report:
http://tndata.utk.edu/sdcpopulationprojections.htm
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Last edited by JMT; 10-07-2017 at 08:55 PM..
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Old 10-07-2017, 11:59 AM
 
367 posts, read 584,645 times
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Wow! Rutherford County moving up the list.
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Old 10-08-2017, 08:53 PM
 
1,017 posts, read 1,490,760 times
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Its absurd to generate population projections so far out using current growth rates (even if slightly modified). Eventually there will be some event or there will be some economic transformation that will push growth and migration from one area to another. Today's "it city" could be tomorrow's Detroit. If you were to apply this study to Detroit in the 1950s, it likely would have had it the size of LA in the 80s and who knows how large now. Nobody in 1950s America would have foreseen a population decline of over 1 million people in the city and the metro area's population essentially stagnate for half a century. That's not to say Nashville or any other currently fast growing city will experience what Detroit or Buffalo or other Rust Belt Cities went through. However, it does show how unpredictable the future is and that while politicians and developers are on an endless quest for growth, periods of high growth are fleeting and not the norm.
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Old 10-09-2017, 06:16 AM
 
Location: TN/NC
35,057 posts, read 31,266,455 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattec View Post
Its absurd to generate population projections so far out using current growth rates (even if slightly modified). Eventually there will be some event or there will be some economic transformation that will push growth and migration from one area to another. Today's "it city" could be tomorrow's Detroit. If you were to apply this study to Detroit in the 1950s, it likely would have had it the size of LA in the 80s and who knows how large now. Nobody in 1950s America would have foreseen a population decline of over 1 million people in the city and the metro area's population essentially stagnate for half a century. That's not to say Nashville or any other currently fast growing city will experience what Detroit or Buffalo or other Rust Belt Cities went through. However, it does show how unpredictable the future is and that while politicians and developers are on an endless quest for growth, periods of high growth are fleeting and not the norm.
I agree - projections to 2070 are just following estimated trendlines.

With that said, you have to start somewhere. I live in Sullivan County. Those figures don't seem unreasonable to me. The county is rapidly aging. It's struggling with the transition out of a manufacturing economy into whatever it is going to. It's basically losing population due to deaths>births, and many of the younger adults who grew up in Sullivan County have to move to major metro areas to find work.

To the extent there is growth or migration of people to east TN, those people are trending toward Washington County. Johnson City seems to be doing better than Kingsport-Bristol.

While nothing is saying those trends must continue, unless there is some sort of currently unforeseen event (better leadership in Sullivan County, worse leadership in Washington County, a big business boom/bust in one county, etc.), I don't see those overall trends changing anytime soon.
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Old 10-09-2017, 05:49 PM
 
Location: Planet Earth Milky Way
1,424 posts, read 1,280,712 times
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In 2070, I'll be 108, having a hot looking nurse change my nappies & wondering where the hell all these people came from.
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