Growing Towns and Cities - Good or Bad? (Memphis, Nashville-Davidson: for sale, condos)

[LauraC]

Does your town feel more congested than it did 5 years ago? In June 2006, the US Bureau of the Census released 2005 estimated populations of Tennessee cities and towns. Take a look at some of these population increases. What do you think? First number is 2000, second number is 2005 estimate by Census. If you don't see your town/city it's because population-wise, it didn't change that much since 2000 (at least 500 people) or a decrease was estimated by Census since 2005.

Would you rather see your town grow in 5 years or stay about the same as it was when you moved there?

Atoka.....3235.....5676
Alcoa.....7734..... 8388
Arlington.....2569..... 3534
Ashland.....3641...... 4550
Bartlett..... 40543.....43263
Brentwood.....23445.....32426
Brighton.....1719 ..... 2441
Clarksville.....103455.....112878
Cleveland.....37192.....38186
Columbia.....33055..... 33777
Cookeville.....23923..... 27743
Covington..... 8463..... 9018
Crossville..... 8981.....10424
Dickson.....12244.....12873
Dunlap.....4173.....4681
Fairview.....5800.....7190
Farragut.....17720.....19054
Franklin.....41842.....53311
Gallatin.....23230 ..... 26720
Gatlinburg.....3382..... 4426
Greenbriar.....4940..... 6054
Hendersonville.....40620..... 44876
Jackson..... 59643..... 62099
Johnson City.....55469..... 58718
Knoxville ......173890.....180130
La Vergne.....18687..... 25885
Lakeland......6862 .....7388
Lebanon.....20235..... 23043
Lenoir City.....6819.....7675
Manchester.....8294..... 9497
Maryville.....23120..... 25851
Memphis.....650100..... 672277
Millersville.....5308..... 6114
Morristown.....24965.....26187
Mount Juliet.....12366.....18099
Munford.....4708..... 5652
Murfreesboro.....68816..... 86793
Oakland.....1279..... 2469
Pigeon Forge.....5083 .....5784
Pleasant View.....2934.....3453
Portland ..... 8458.....10342
Sevierville.....11757.....14788
Shelbyville.....16105.....18648
Smyrna......25569..... 33497
Spring Hill......7715.....17148
Springfield ......14329.....15916
Sweetwater......5586..... 6117
Tiptonville.....2439..... 4099
Tullahoma.....17994.....18909
White House.....7220..... 8723
Whiteville .....3148.....4489

*Note: I did not understand the numbers posted for Goodlettsville and Nashville-Davidson, which were listed twice so I haven't included those places.

[TomNashville]

East Shelby County (Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, etc.) certainly feels more congested than it did five years ago. Shelby County has only grown by 1.3% since 2000 but I would guess that virtually all that growth is occurring in the eastern part of the county. Traffic everywhere.

[Tek_Freek]

LauraC, may I ask where you got your information?

[JMT]

LauraC, thanks for going through the effort to post those figures. Very interesting! Those figures are availble, at census.gov

I think growth is good as long as it's not too fast. When it's too fast, you end up with ridiculous traffic, overcrowded schools, etc., because the infrastructure can't keep up with the growth. Look at Orlando or suburban Atlanta.

But manageable growth is good because it allows young people to get jobs in town, it brings more choices in restaurants and shopping, etc.

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by Tek_Freek

LauraC, may I ask where you got your information?

Yes, I was hoping someone would ask. I bookmarked it. Maybe you could explain to me what the Nashville and Goodlettsville double entries mean:

http://cber.utk.edu/Census/05subcnty2.pdf

I found this when I was looking for the most current population estimate for Murfreesboro to answer someone else's post.

[TomNashville]

Originally Posted by JMT

LauraC, thanks for going through the effort to post those figures. Very interesting! Those figures are availble, at census.gov

I think growth is good as long as it's not too fast. When it's too fast, you end up with ridiculous traffic, overcrowded schools, etc., because the infrastructure can't keep up with the growth. Look at Orlando or suburban Atlanta.

But manageable growth is good because it allows young people to get jobs in town, it brings more choices in restaurants and shopping, etc.

This is the key. When growth is out of hand, it ends up creating headaches for residents. You didn't mention skyrocketing property values -- which are good if you're already a homeowner, but bad if you're looking to buy a home!

Environmental problems can also result from uncontrolled growth. Not only air pollution, etc., but also an area can lose its character from such growth. Nice rural areas quickly become lands of strip malls, big box stores, and chain restaurants that look like every other place in America.

What's not bad, though, is solid growth. Slow enough that the infrastructure can keep up, but still pretty solid growth. On balance, I'd rather my town grow than decay. (On this note, the other annoying thing is when one area of a city is losing population while another area is gaining it. This doesn't mean that on balance the city is gaining population -- it's just shifting from one area to another.)

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by JMT

LauraC, thanks for going through the effort to post those figures. Very interesting! Those figures are availble, at census.gov

I think growth is good as long as it's not too fast. When it's too fast, you end up with ridiculous traffic, overcrowded schools, etc., because the infrastructure can't keep up with the growth. Look at Orlando or suburban Atlanta.

But manageable growth is good because it allows young people to get jobs in town, it brings more choices in restaurants and shopping, etc.

I'm one of those NIMBY types. I picked the town I picked because the size was manageble for me. You know, I'm one of those "let Farragut and West Knoxville grow" but leave my new town alone. I'd rather go shopping someplace else. I think enough boomers are retiring that the younger people can replace them, after the people directly behind them are promoted. You know, at what population size does "a nice mountain town" become a "bad mountain nightmare?" I'm thinking of the ex-northern city moved-to-Florida people who ruined paradise and don't even realize they (as a group of people) are the cause of their own problems.

But aside from that, I was wondering which population growth has more impact on a town (in a bad way) - a small Tennessee town like Atoka whose population grew by more than 50% but only 2,441 people or a medium-sized town like Brentwood that grew by almost 9,000 people in that same timeframe or a very large city like Memphis that grew by 22,177 people?

And if the answer is "what the land can support," what's considered to be an ideal population density anyway?

[TomNashville]

Heh... "bad mountain nightmare" is a good description of Sevier County, I think. And much of western Colorado...

Anything over 25 percent growth is going to cause some difficulty; anything over 50 percent, more so, and over 100 percent you're looking at a potential nightmare. Multiply that over several decades in some areas, and things can get really bad.

The biggest concern I would have with rapid growth is that it causes the area to lose the character that drew people to that area to begin with. Once your mountain fills up with strip malls, big box retailers, etc., and begins to look like every other place in America (except, you know, that there are mountains vaguely in the background somewhere), you've got bad mountain nightmare. Which, I suppose, is better than "bad flat land nightmare," which is much of east Shelby County. Or Williamson County, "bad hilly nightmare."

[AppalachianAngler]

Originally Posted by TomNashville

This is the key. When growth is out of hand, it ends up creating headaches for residents. You didn't mention skyrocketing property values -- which are good if you're already a homeowner, but bad if you're looking to buy a home!

Environmental problems can also result from uncontrolled growth. Not only air pollution, etc., but also an area can lose its character from such growth. Nice rural areas quickly become lands of strip malls, big box stores, and chain restaurants that look like every other place in America.

What's not bad, though, is solid growth. Slow enough that the infrastructure can keep up, but still pretty solid growth. On balance, I'd rather my town grow than decay. (On this note, the other annoying thing is when one area of a city is losing population while another area is gaining it. This doesn't mean that on balance the city is gaining population -- it's just shifting from one area to another.)

I agree with both Tom & JMT. A little growth is always good for the economy, but too much can just be awful. Also, as Tom pointed out, pollution can get bad. The last thing I want by the Watauga and South Holston Rivers is condos and strip malls via Sevierville or Denver. I am already involved with an organization where we have multiple clean-ups a year at said rivers, and it amazes me how bad it already is. I can't imagine how much worse it would be with more development.

[LauraC]

Would I be correct in thinking that most people would prefer Tennessee newcomers to buy pre-existing homes for sale rather than build new ones?

See, I don't want the construction industry to go down the drain but rather than build new homes, I like to see construction on what's already there. For instance, in Oak Ridge there is an indoor mall with next to nothing in it except for the anchor department stores. I didn't see any construction, either. I'd rather that be the next big construction project than a new master planned community. If the town isn't big enough to sustain small stores, turn a wing of the mall into offices, like doctor's offices (the increasing baby boomer population needs doctors). With all of the musical performing arts in Oak Ridge, maybe some state of the art auditorium/music center would be popular in the already existing space. The parking lot is there. They're adding on to the pre-existing high school - that's a good thing.