Tennessee Urban Areas and Clusters (Memphis, Knoxville: apartment, condo, new home)

[JMT]

With the 2020 Census fast approaching, and with extra time on my hands, I thought it would be interesting to see which urbanized areas in Tennessee have grown since the 2010 Census. Since city limits are fairly arbitrary, and since some cities have "grown" through mere annexation, urbanized areas/clusters are perhaps a better reflection on an area's growth. Many suburban cities such as Franklin or Farragut don't have their own listings since they're included in the urban areas of larger cities, respectively Nashville and Knoxville.

PS: The Census defines "urban area" as 50,000+. Less than 50,000 is an "urban cluster."

Here we go. The 2017 figures are from Census Reporter.

urban area/cluster...2010 pop...2017 estimate...difference
Arlington...11,502...11,074...-428
Ashland City...3,384...3,425...41
Athens...15,985...15,941...-44
Atoka...18,885...20,015...1,130
Bells...4,758...4,894...136
Bolivar...5,394...5,415...21
Bristol...69,501...67,717...-1,784
Brownsville...9,879...9,065...-814
Camden...3,552...3,341...-211
Carthage...3,282...3,357...71
Chattanooga...381,112...396,012...14,900
Clarksville...158,655...179,327...20,672
Cleveland...66,777...69,595...2,818
Columbia...34,965...37,722...2,757
Cookeville...44,207...46,973...2,766
Covington...8,578...8,468...-110
Crossville...16,337...16,663...326
Dandridge...4,959...5,439...480
Dayton...10,174...10,703...529
Dickson...16,016...16,424...408
Dunlap...3,691...3,903...212
Dyer...3,248...3,069...-179
Dyersburg...21,903...21,071...-832
Erwin...9,788...9,173...-615
Etowah...4,129...4,267...138
Fairfield Glade...5,584...6,521...937
Fairview...6,373...7,026...653
Fayetteville...9,178...8,499...-679
Greeneville...23,957...23,893...-64
Halls...2,735...2,835...100
Harriman - Kingston - Rockwood...23,515...22,737...-778
Henderson...6,027...6,247...220
Hohenwald...3,625...3,739...114
Humboldt...8,769...8,574...-193
Jackson...71,880...71,102...-778
Jasper...3,281...3,437...156
Johnson City...120,415...125,751...5,336
Kingsport...106,571...103,760...-2,811
Knoxville...558,696...601,751...43,055
Lafayette...4,545...4,829...284
La Follette...21,055...19,401...-1,654
Lawrenceburg...10,100...10,093...-7
Lebanon...27,653...29,175...1,522
Lewisburg...10,464...11,457...993
Lexington...6,560...6,527...-33
Livingston...3,485...3,268...-217
Madisonville...5,391...5,385...-6
Manchester...11,379...11,613...234
Martin...11,397...10,546...-851
McKenzie...5,066...5,395...329
McMinnville...15,386...15,287...-99
Medina...3,636...4,202...566
Memphis...1,060,061...1,079,752...19,691
Milan...7,427...7,806...379
Monterey...3,010...3,210...200
Morristown - Jefferson City...59,036...65,631...6,595
Mountain City...2,698...2,381...317
Mount Pleasant...3,507...3,965...458
Murfreesboro...133,228...163,574...30,346
Nashville...969,587...1,082,734...113,147
Newport...11,603...11,320...-283
New Tazewell...4,598...4,467...-131
Norris...3,005...2,728...-277
Oakland...7,057...7,551...494
Oneida...4,322...4,328...6
Paris...10,642...10,056...-586
Pleasant View...3,730...3,872...152
Portland...10,869...11,734...865
Pulaski...7,741...7,423...-318
Ripley...8,763...8,541...-222
Rogersville...6,444...5,849...-595
Savannah...8,347...7,968...-378
Selmer...3,840...3,846...6
Sevierville...22,108...23,880...1,772
Shelbyville ...20,005...20,508...503
Smithville...4,050...4,406...356
South Pittsburg...5,373...5,184...-189
Sparta...5,449...5,952...503
Springfield...17,357...17,202...-155
Spring Hill...31,208...37,043...5,835
Strawberry Plains...3,906...3,699...-207
Sweetwater...5,430...5,218...-212
Trenton...3,852...3,495...357
Tullahoma...17,250...17,221...-29
Union City...10,303...9,775...-528
Waverly...3,246...3,293...47
White Pine...3,061...2,884...-177
Winchester...11,681...12,075...394
Woodbury...2,604...2,523...-81

[N.Cal]

It would show a clearer picture if you looked at percentage increase/decrease.

[indy_317]

Originally Posted by JMT

Many suburban cities such as Franklin or Farragut don't have their own listings since they're included in the urban areas of larger cities, respectively Nashville and Knoxville.

Here we go. The 2017 figures are from Census Reporter.

urban area/cluster...2010 pop...2017 estimate...difference
Chattanooga...381,112...396,012...14,900

Johnson City...120,415...125,751...5,336
Kingsport...106,571...103,760...-2,811


Knoxville...558,696...601,751...43,055


Memphis...1,060,061...1,079,752...19,691

Murfreesboro...133,228...163,574...30,346
Nashville...969,587...1,082,734...113,147

Sevierville...22,108...23,880...1,772

Knoxville has been one of the two top places I've always been keeping an eye on for relocation. I want to say that from about three years and further back, housing prices were noticeably lower than here in the Indy area. Over the last two years, it seems prices have gone up in Knoxville. I noticed this about two years ago when we drove through the downtown area on our way to a short Gatlinburg trip. I noticed the same urban renewal that almost all urban areas are seeing. I wrote down one or two apartment/condo buildings near the downtown area. The prices were pretty much what I saw with similar builds in downtown Indy. I knew the Nashville area was having some crazy growth, but I'm surprised that the Knoxville number is so high, so I'm wondering if that also includes any sort of annexation?

[Serious Conversation]

I'm really surprised to see the gains in Morristown and Jefferson City. I figured that area would be declining.

Kingsport and Bristol declining with Johnson City increasing basically confirms that Johnson City is this area's only healthy subregion.

[nashvols]

Cookeville is inching towards that Metropolitan status.

[llsmith42]

From the Census Bureau page..."For the 2010 Census, an urban area will comprise a densely settled core of census tracts and/or census blocks that meet minimum population density requirements, along with adjacent territory containing non-residential urban land uses as well as territory with low population density included to link outlying densely settled territory with the densely settled core."


That sounds like Greek to me. Anyone care to clarify?


Also, from the Census Bureau page..."The Census Bureau introduced the urban cluster concept for Census 2000, replacing urban places located outside urbanized areas. Urban clusters are defined based on the same criteria as urbanized areas, but represent areas containing at least 2,500 and less than 50,000 people."


Why is Lebanon separate from Nashville, while Mt. Juliet is included? Why are Crossville and Fairfield Glade separate?

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by llsmith42

From the Census Bureau page..."For the 2010 Census, an urban area will comprise a densely settled core of census tracts and/or census blocks that meet minimum population density requirements, along with adjacent territory containing non-residential urban land uses as well as territory with low population density included to link outlying densely settled territory with the densely settled core."

1) Census tracts/blocks do not necessarily conform to any city/town boundary. I believe they do not cross county lines, but I'm not totally certain of that. And they constantly change and evolve (usually they are split up as the population rises, making them easier to manage). They're arbitrary.

So let's say a road is the dividing line of two particular Census tracts. Say it's in a suburban area near the edge of development. Each side of the road has an equal amount of development and population, but one tract meets the overall population density requirements (in this example, the side of the road that is closer to town, and the tract includes many more neighborhoods on other roads than the other tract, which, say, has more farmland).

While each side of the street is in a separate tract -- one deemed urban, one deemed non-urban -- for the sake of counting urban areas, the Census will include just the side of the street (not the entire tract) that has development in the urban area. Because it wouldn't make sense to exclude development that is literally connected on the other side of the street.

2) There are also areas, such as industrial parks, office parks, rail yards, and airports that are considered part of the urban fabric, even if they have no permanent population. Sometimes two dense residential areas are separated by one of these low population urban tracts. The Census recognizes that there is still a contiguous area of development and the two residential zones should not be counted as separate.

Originally Posted by llsmith42

Also, from the Census Bureau page..."The Census Bureau introduced the urban cluster concept for Census 2000, replacing urban places located outside urbanized areas. Urban clusters are defined based on the same criteria as urbanized areas, but represent areas containing at least 2,500 and less than 50,000 people."


Why is Lebanon separate from Nashville, while Mt. Juliet is included? Why are Crossville and Fairfield Glade separate?

Simply put, Mount Juliet is much closer to Nashville and more connected development-wise than Lebanon. If Mount Juliet and Lebanon really start to grow together (I suspect they will), then Lebanon will eventually be added to the Nashville urban area.

[ZeusAV]

Nashville has overtaken Memphis

[Sun Belt-lover L.A.M.]

Originally Posted by Serious Conversation

I'm really surprised to see the gains in Morristown and Jefferson City. I figured that area would be declining.

I'm very surprised too. I'm also surprised to see that Spring Hill and Cookeville have slowed as much as they have.

Kingsport and Bristol declining with Johnson City increasing basically confirms that Johnson City is this area's only healthy subregion.

Indeed. Not that I'd move there anyways.

Originally Posted by nashvols

Cookeville is inching towards that Metropolitan status.

Yes, but it seems like it won't happen at this census, as much as it's slowed. Although it is possible, especially if it absorbs Sparta...

Originally Posted by nashvols

Simply put, Mount Juliet is much closer to Nashville and more connected development-wise than Lebanon. If Mount Juliet and Lebanon really start to grow together (I suspect they will), then Lebanon will eventually be added to the Nashville urban area.

I suspect so too. The development between them has gone on bigtime this decade. Maybe even this census?

Originally Posted by ZeusAV

Nashville has overtaken Memphis

Indeed, it has. No surprise there.

P.S.: Who else thinks White County will be added to Cookeville's micro area and DeKalb County to Nashville's/Murfreesboro's metro?

[JMT]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt-lover L.A.M.

I'm very surprised too. I'm also surprised to see that Spring Hill and Cookeville have slowed as much as they have.

Remember that these are just estimates, and I think they're off for several cities on the list. For example, it shows Lebanon's 2017 urban area at 29,175 even though its 2017 city population was 32,226. In the case of Cookeville, the early 2010s were part of the Great Recession, and growth had slowed down considerably (although it still grew), and not just for Cookeville. Growth in Cookeville has accelerated considerably since 2016 with something like 2,000 new homes built in Putnam County in the last 3 years, the bulk of which are within Cookeville's urban cluster (which includes Algood and Baxter). Baxter's housing boom really didn't start until 2017, and same for Algood. So assuming things continue the next year as they have the last 3 years, I think Cookeville will hit the 50,000 threshold to become a metropolitan area.

Originally Posted by Sun Belt-lover L.A.M.

P.S.: Who else thinks White County will be added to Cookeville's micro area and DeKalb County to Nashville's/Murfreesboro's metro?

Honestly, I'm surprised White County isn't already part of Cookeville's micropolitan area. Last I checked, it barely missed the standard by just a few percentage points. Part of Cookeville's urban cluster is in White County, and employment connections between the two counties have intensified since 2010 so I wouldn't be surprised if White County were added to Cookeville's micropolitan/metropolitan area after the 2020 census. And I hope it happens, as being part of a metropolitan area brings extra federal funding for things like transportation and housing projects, something which would definitely benefit White County as well as Putnam/Jackson/Overton counties.