Tennessee's 2020 Census results (Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga: 2015, crime, how much)

[oobanks]

Tennessee's state census results were released this past week and the state grew by over a half a million gaining 564,735, bringing the total population to 6,910,840. Can we guess where that population went and what corners of the state before the city and county data is released?? Has Nashville finally crossed that Magic 2,000,000 mark, do any think it may have over our under performed? Did Memphis gain or lose population?? How about Knoxville or Chattanooga, did they get good or major gains around their metros?? Anyone willing to guess where this half a million population went around the state before official city, county and metro population figures are released?

[Creekcat]

I'm thinking that Hamilton County, "Chattanooga", gained. I live in the north end, I have noticed a lot of new houses built and zoning notices posted. Traffic has picked up on US#27.

[yellowcat123]

It's a bummer that the 2020 Census numbers were taken around April 1 if I'm not wrong? I'm pretty sure that the Coronavirus caused a big migration in people and that the numbers are even higher than that today.

[oobanks]

Originally Posted by yellowcat123

It's a bummer that the 2020 Census numbers were taken around April 1 if I'm not wrong? I'm pretty sure that the Coronavirus caused a big migration in people and that the numbers are even higher than that today.

I was thinking the same thing!

[jjbradleynyc]

Tennessee gained the 11th most "raw numbers" of people of any state in the US, so the growth is robust and impressive.

If I had to guess, I'd say this is how the numbers played out over the 10 year total period:

*Nashville metro area: gained 325k
*Knoxville metro area: gained 75k
*Chattanooga metro area: gained 50k
*Memphis metro area: gained 15k
*Clarksville metro area: gained 50k

The remaining roughly 50k is spread around other state cities and towns, which grew mostly very modestly

[nashvols]

Tennessee's growth (as a percentage) has slowed a bit since the 2000s. From 90-00, it grew by 16.7%, and from 00-10, it grew by 11.5%. This decade, the rate has fallen to 8.9%. Part of that is because it is more difficult to maintain high percentage rates as a state gets larger...but there is more to it than that. Many smaller, rural counties boomed in the 90s, only to slow or crash in the last 20 years. And over that same period, the Memphis area has seen population stagnation, and the Knoxville and Chattanooga areas have seen only slow to average growth. Only the Nashville area has been consistent. While we might not have an exact figure for Nashville, it should fall within an expected range. I'm curious about how the rest of the state's growth is divided up.

Tennessee growth:
1990-2000 - 812,098
2000-2010 - 656,822
2010-2020 - 564,735

Nashville MSA growth*:
1990-2000 - 272,717
2000-2010 - 287,192
2010-2020 - 320,149**


I think the concern for most Tennesseans should be the relatively dismal growth of the state outside of the Nashville area.

Tennessee growth minus the Nashville MSA:
1990-2000 - 539,381
2000-2010 - 369,640
2010-2020 - 244,586**

That 244k number without Nashville puts Tennessee's growth in the same realm as Alabama.


Nashville MSA's growth as a percentage of Tennessee's overall growth:
1990-2000 - 33.6%
2000-2010 - 43.7%
2010-2020 - 56.7%**

* I used the growth totals for all current counties, so growth by adding a county to the MSA would not skew the results
** This is based off of the 2010-2019 census estimates, and extrapolated to extend one year further to meet 2020. Given the explosive growth, I don't think this is an unreasonable projection.

As for predictions:
-Nashville MSA will be a little short of 2 million. They removed one minor county from the MSA definition (Hickman, 26k people). While it's not a major county, it will almost certainly keep Nashville from reaching that milestone. I'll say we'll be at about 1.97 million.

Knoxville and Chattanooga will primarily see growth in their hub counties (Knox and Hamilton). Those two should be in the top 10 in the state in raw growth. There's a chance either Sevier County or Blount County will make that list...but most of it will be dominated by Nashville area counties + Montgomery County (Clarksville).

Rural growth will be dismal, and even negative in many places. Even some small to midsized stand alone cities will struggle. Look for Sevierville and Cookeville to buck this trend, while a few other places like Tullahoma/Manchester, Crossville, and Johnson City will hold their own.

I'm curious to see if Shelby County shows a loss or a slight gain.

[shinestx]

Originally Posted by nashvols

Tennessee's growth (as a percentage) has slowed a bit since the 2000s. From 90-00, it grew by 16.7%, and from 00-10, it grew by 11.5%. This decade, the rate has fallen to 8.9%. Part of that is because it is more difficult to maintain high percentage rates as a state gets larger...but there is more to it than that. Many smaller, rural counties boomed in the 90s, only to slow or crash in the last 20 years. And over that same period, the Memphis area has seen population stagnation, and the Knoxville and Chattanooga areas have seen only slow to average growth. Only the Nashville area has been consistent. While we might not have an exact figure for Nashville, it should fall within an expected range. I'm curious about how the rest of the state's growth is divided up.

Tennessee growth:
1990-2000 - 812,098
2000-2010 - 656,822
2010-2020 - 564,735

Nashville MSA growth*:
1990-2000 - 272,717
2000-2010 - 287,192
2010-2020 - 320,149**


I think the concern for most Tennesseans should be the relatively dismal growth of the state outside of the Nashville area.

Tennessee growth minus the Nashville MSA:
1990-2000 - 539,381
2000-2010 - 369,640
2010-2020 - 244,586**

That 244k number without Nashville puts Tennessee's growth in the same realm as Alabama.


Nashville MSA's growth as a percentage of Tennessee's overall growth:
1990-2000 - 33.6%
2000-2010 - 43.7%
2010-2020 - 56.7%**

* I used the growth totals for all current counties, so growth by adding a county to the MSA would not skew the results
** This is based off of the 2010-2019 census estimates, and extrapolated to extend one year further to meet 2020. Given the explosive growth, I don't think this is an unreasonable projection.

As for predictions:
-Nashville MSA will be a little short of 2 million. They removed one minor county from the MSA definition (Hickman, 26k people). While it's not a major county, it will almost certainly keep Nashville from reaching that milestone. I'll say we'll be at about 1.97 million.

Knoxville and Chattanooga will primarily see growth in their hub counties (Knox and Hamilton). Those two should be in the top 10 in the state in raw growth. There's a chance either Sevier County or Blount County will make that list...but most of it will be dominated by Nashville area counties + Montgomery County (Clarksville).

Rural growth will be dismal, and even negative in many places. Even some small to midsized stand alone cities will struggle. Look for Sevierville and Cookeville to buck this trend, while a few other places like Tullahoma/Manchester, Crossville, and Johnson City will hold their own.

I'm curious to see if Shelby County shows a loss or a slight gain.

Nice job with the number crunching/estimates! I do think the Nashville metro area attracted a very large number of intra-state moves.

I'd bet you're pretty darn close, but I do believe there was a late uptick in population around certain areas from 2019 to present that perhaps was not caught in the census. Tennesseans are historically low responders to the Census, as the 1990 census revealed. The dramatic rise in 2000 was due to a self-correction from more people responding to Millennial census advertising which played heavily for months prior to its rollout.

Someone above mentioned COVID, which I think is one cause making people reluctant to answer their doors/respond to a survey or due to a change in living situations (lots of people took temporary jobs away from home). And let's not forget that 12,000 died in the state alone. How much more was the state a 'beneficiary' of that may never be known without a midcensus count in a few years, and Tennessee has not conducted a statewide midcensus in the past 50 years. Then there's the surge of crime in the large urban areas that (for the first time in recent history) branched out to their suburbs. We know thousands said, "to hell with this!" and moved. WFH has enabled so many to move to rural areas. Another is the robust economic growth that traditional manufacturing centers of the upper Midwest and Northeast during the 2015-2019 time frame. When the economy nosedived last year, people lost jobs, and not a small number decided to retire early. Conversely, Tennessee has landed some huge manufacturing relocations/expansions in the past 3 years. Tennessee became a retirement haven in the past 5 years. In the midst of their moving, I'd guess the mail-outs/count to their old addresses never caught up to them at their new TN addresses.

[jjbradleynyc]

Originally Posted by nashvols

I think the concern for most Tennesseans should be the relatively dismal growth of the state outside of the Nashville area.

Tennessee growth minus the Nashville MSA:
1990-2000 - 539,381
2000-2010 - 369,640
2010-2020 - 244,586**

That 244k number without Nashville puts Tennessee's growth in the same realm as Alabama.

Isn't this the case though for states with 1 large primary metro area that is booming? Take Georgia for example. If you removed the Atlanta metro area, I would guess that Georgia may have only gained about 200k or so as well.


Nashville MSA's growth as a percentage of Tennessee's overall growth:
1990-2000 - 33.6%
2000-2010 - 43.7%
2010-2020 - 56.7%**

* I used the growth totals for all current counties, so growth by adding a county to the MSA would not skew the results
** This is based off of the 2010-2019 census estimates, and extrapolated to extend one year further to meet 2020. Given the explosive growth, I don't think this is an unreasonable projection.

As for predictions:
-Nashville MSA will be a little short of 2 million. They removed one minor county from the MSA definition (Hickman, 26k people). While it's not a major county, it will almost certainly keep Nashville from reaching that milestone. I'll say we'll be at about 1.97 million.

I think Clarksville should be included in the Nashville metro. If that were the case, Nashville metro would already by around 2.3 million or so. Maybe it's the commuting patterns?


I'm curious to see if Shelby County shows a loss or a slight gain. Also, the Memphis metro, it seems like it should include at least 2 or 3 more Tennessee counties, but I suppose that goes back to commuting as well. If several more counties were included in the Memphis metro, it might be able to top 1.5 million, or come close.

Great post! See my comments/questions above

[GWoodle]

Originally Posted by yellowcat123

It's a bummer that the 2020 Census numbers were taken around April 1 if I'm not wrong? I'm pretty sure that the Coronavirus caused a big migration in people and that the numbers are even higher than that today.

In their press conference Census officials claimed a 1% error rate this time. Not sure what effort local officials took to be sure minority & student populations were counted. More data to be released by September to do state redistricting. Tennessee may not have been close to adding/losing 1 Congress seat. New York was on the fence with a difference of 90 people.

There will be data on numbers of births/deaths & in to outward migrations.

[JMT]

Ok the 2020 estimates are out. Remember, these are just estimates, not official Census counts. The official counts won't come out until July, I think. The only estimates right now are for metropolitan and micropolitan areas and their counties.

metropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Nashville...1,961,232...27,777...315,032
Memphis...1,348,678...2,332...32,578
Knoxville...878,124...8,986...63,210
Chattanooga...569,931...4,749...41,788
Clarksville...314,364...4,615...40,415
Kingsport-Bristol...308,183...393...-1,361
Johnson City...204,540...560...5,824
Jackson...179,131...476...-563
Morristown...143,982...1,140...7,374
Cleveland...125,906...909...10,118

micropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Cookeville...115,359...1,293...9,313
Tullahoma-Manchester...106,555...1,144...6,345
Sevierville...99,244...842...9,355
Greeneville...69,571...444...740
Crossville...61,603...771...5,550
Athens...54,208...398...1,942
Shelbyville...50,179...495...5,121
Lawrenceburg...44,432...269...2,563
McMinnville...41,605...336...1,766
Dyersburg...36,693...-429...-1,642
Newport...36,225...208...563
Lewisburg...35,016...509...4,399
Dayton...33,443...237...1,634
Martin...33,334...65...-1,687
Paris...32,056...-253...-274
Union City...30,131...-118...-1,676
Brownsville...17,002...-242...-1,785

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...cal-areas.html