Potential ET Transplants: Where are Your Geographical Homies? (Knoxville, Chattanooga: fit in, homes)

[LauraC]

I took a look at the IRS data (from the Star-Telegram) in the link that jmarkey posted in another thread that shows the counties of Tennessee and who migrated into those counties between 2000 and 2005. The people had to be exemptions on tax returns to be counted. Specifically, I only looked at the receiving counties of East Tennessee.

We get a lot of forum questions like "Will I fit in there?" Or, "Where will I fit in?" We also get discussion on what East Tennessee will look like with so many transplants. We get people who want to live with other people from their former state and we get people who want to get as far away as possible from a transplant invasion and the perceived problems (traffic, school overcrowding, culture clashes, etc.) that that a large incoming migration can cause.

While the data shows county out to county in data, I looked at the states people were coming from. While it's hardly scientific, I added all of the population from each state coming into a particular ET county for an indication of where transplants are settling. You may notice that counties that border other states, get most of their transplants from those other states. I may have to do this in more than one post.

NOTE: The biggest migration in is from other Tennessee counties

Johnson County

NC 497
VA 53
PA 16

Carter County

NC 273
VA 113
IL 14

Sullivan County

VA 6461
NC 311
FL 207
SC 97
TX 89
GA 56
CA 51
AZ 15

Washington County

VA 665
NC 407
FL 351
CA 110
GA 77
(Less than 50 each: TX, IL, KY, AZ, AL, KS)

Unicoi

(Less than 50: NC)

Greene

NC 193
FL 55

Cocke

NC 50

Sevier

FL 1332
KY 87
OH 62
SC 54
(Less than 50 each: MI, CA, MO, TX, NC, IN, GA)

Blount

FL 962
CA 161
GA 102
IL 79
AZ 66
MI 66
TX 61
NC 52
(Less than 50 each: AL, NV, OH)

Monroe

MI 88

Hawkins

VA 651
(Less than 50: KY)

Hamblen

(Less than 50 each: FL, NC, KY)

Jefferson

KY 79
FL 58
(Less than 50 each: WV, MI)

Anderson

(Less than 50 each: IL, FL, TX)

Roane

(Less than 50: CA)

Claiborne

KY 1882
VA 247

Campbell

KY 426
(less than 50 each: OH, MI)

Loudon

MI 244
(Less than 50 each: FL, VA)

McMinn

(Less than 50 each: WI, GA)

Bradley

GA 1374
FL 246
CA 53
(Less than 50 each: CA, TX, AL)

Polk

GA 491
NC 82

Marion

AL 607
GA 331

Scott

KY 358
(Less than 50: GA)

Cumberland

MI 418
FL 383
IL 90
CA 73
OH 70
(Less than 50: AZ)

[LauraC]

These counties got their transplants from other TN counties so they might not be as transplant friendly:

Rhea
Bledsoe
Morgan
Union
Hancock
Grainger

Note: It appears the Star-Telegram and/or the IRS didn't count any non Tennessee counties that contributed less than 11 people so, for example, if 6 Wyoming counties contributed 5 people each to a single TN county, while the total might be 30, none would be included.

[LauraC]

Since Knoxville and Chattanooga are the biggest cities in East TN, you may be interested to observe that the Top 10 states that contribute to their county population migration in (2000 - 2005) are the same, although the order and population counts differ.

KNOX COUNTY

1. FL 4072
2. GA 2430
3. NC 2012
4. CA 1378
5. TX 1362
6. OH 1192
7. SC 1159
8. KY 1108
9. AL 870
10. IL 812

HAMILTON COUNTY

1. GA 14095
2. FL 2596
3. AL 2017
4. CA 761
5. NC 742
6. TX 699
7. SC 418
8. OH 393
9. IL 347
10. KY 226

[Kpt.]

LauraC; Thanks for posting this information and the link to the source. This fits well with other data I have seen. Border counties obviously see lots of in and out migration from their neighboring states...Sullivan Ccounty TN (Kingsport / Bristol) as expected has quite a bit of migration from Virginia, and Hamilton County TN (Chattanooga) has lots of crossover with Georgia. More interesting to me is information from distant states...Florida is high on the list for us.

[klosk]

Great Post!!!!! Looks like we are going to be the only New Mexico transplant!!!

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by Kpt.

LauraC; Thanks for posting this information and the link to the source. This fits well with other data I have seen. Border counties obviously see lots of in and out migration from their neighboring states...Sullivan Ccounty TN (Kingsport / Bristol) as expected has quite a bit of migration from Virginia, and Hamilton County TN (Chattanooga) has lots of crossover with Georgia. More interesting to me is information from distant states...Florida is high on the list for us.

jmarkey posted the link in her thread titled Transplant Statistics. When you look at her original link you'll be able to see what counties people are coming from but it's not until you add the counties in each state do you see patterns like the ones you mentioned. Looking at the data, I can tell you I would not live in Sevier or Blount Counties. They have way too big a transplant population not from a bordering state, telling me, they're the next overcrowded, overtaxed, traffic challenged, culture clash locations. The data stops in 2005, too. Knox and Hamilton Counties have the biggest variety of transplants but that's because of the cities of Knoxville and Chattanooga and transplants from all over are expected.

[hiknapster]

The 2005 date has me worried. Those were the people that got out just before things got really bad.

I've mentioned this before, but I think it's worth repeating.

We moved out of Florida on October 1, 2005. I worked with a couple down in Fort Myers. I did not know that they had sold their home and moved to Knoxville two weeks before we did. They are only 29 years old but had the smarts to sell and get out. September of 2005 was the sweet spot to sell in Fort Myers.

Imagine my surprise when I started at my new job in December 2006 and there they were!

So, I cringe to think what the 2006 figures are like. Someone has mentioned in another thread that things are tougher right now in Florida and they will have a hard time selling those homes.

In the meantime, I love these stats. It gives you an idea where NOT to move.

[sliverbox]

Those numbers are actually pretty promising. I think by reading this board, one can imagine that half the state of CA is moving there.But how many actually follow through with it is the big question.

However, I would like to throw in one tangible. Those stats are from 2000 to 2005. The housing boom peaked in 2005. In my opinion, many in overpriced states are waiting on the fence for the prices to fall. But many others are simply frustrated because the prices aren't really budging ( not in CA anyhow) so I believe the interest in relocation is a far more recent trend.Say in the last 2 years. I can say from anecdotal evidence that many more people around here seem to be jumping on the relocation bandwagon. So it would be interesting to take a gander at the numbers circa 2006, 2007.

[Tek_Freek]

You might also consider people like us. We have land there, but aren't moving for at least two years. Looks like we're going to be the only IA folks showing up. Perhaps we should move in next to Klosk!