Which major Texas city will become minor? (Houston, Dallas: condos, hotels)

[Texas Liberal]

Galveston was one of the first cities in Texas and was once the capital of Texas. It was also one of the main ports for the U.S. but in recent decades has declined rapidly with a current population of only around 45,000.

So this thread is kind of the opposite of the other thread about which minor city will become major. I know that this is impossible to predict things like this because of black swans, but which major city do think will be a minor one in the future?

To get things started, I think it will be San Antonio. It is already less important than it used to be and Austin is stealing it's thunder.

[Willsson]

None. Galveston was once a major port but suffered because of hurricanes, and the Port of Houston. With growth in Texas, I wouldn't expect any city to lose in population. Even in Dallas there's a trend of some suburbanites looking to move back into an urban area.

[ReppingDFW]

Major city? I don't know, they're all heading steady and appear good for the future. Unless Texas turns into an economically depressed area like the Rust Belt, then who knows. I don't see San Antonio declining.

For smaller cities, Beaumont and Wichita Falls metro areas are the only ones that posted declines in Texas, if I remember correctly.

[TX75007]

Originally Posted by Texas Liberal

Galveston was one of the first cities in Texas and was once the capital of Texas. It was also one of the main ports for the U.S. but in recent decades has declined rapidly with a current population of only around 45,000..

Galveston was THE city in TX until the 1900 Hurricane killed everyone and scraped the island clean. It has never recovered from that event.

The main thing for a city to be important is infrastructure - transportation, port facilities, logistics, etc.

The main driver of South Texas will be the widening of the Panama Canal and the opening of petroleum export facilities. This means that all cities along the coast and just inland will continue to grow.

San Antonio will continue to grow in importance as a major logistical center serving the coast, points north, and Mexico.

The main areas of Texas losing population are in West Texas. However, due to the activity in the Permian Basin, Midland-Odessa will continue to grow for some time. Amarillo ditto.

El Paso is a major trading hub now.

I cannot think of any current Texas city that will be a bust for the next 20-30 years.

On the other hand, the major cities of the Midwest and Northeast continue to contract.

[Texas Liberal]

Originally Posted by TX75007

Galveston was THE city in TX until the 1900 Hurricane killed everyone and scraped the island clean. It has never recovered from that event.

The main thing for a city to be important is infrastructure - transportation, port facilities, logistics, etc.

The main driver of South Texas will be the widening of the Panama Canal and the opening of petroleum export facilities. This means that all cities along the coast and just inland will continue to grow.

San Antonio will continue to grow in importance as a major logistical center serving the coast, points north, and Mexico.

The main areas of Texas losing population are in West Texas. However, due to the activity in the Permian Basin, Midland-Odessa will continue to grow for some time. Amarillo ditto.

El Paso is a major trading hub now.

I cannot think of any current Texas city that will be a bust for the next 20-30 years.

On the other hand, the major cities of the Midwest and Northeast continue to contract.

I disagree a little bit about the 1900 hurricane. It did set the city back, but the city was only slightly smaller in 1910 than it was in 1900 and posted strong gains up to the 1940's. What ultimately brought about Galveston's decline was competition with Houston.

San Antonio finds itself in a similar position today vis a vis Austin. The two are competing for the same niche, and Austin is winning.

[Metro Matt]

Galveston was never a "major city" to begin with.

At its peak population in 1960 there were only 67,000 people.

Now, 52 years later there are still over 47,000 people on the island.

This averages out to approximately 385 people leaving each year so its not that bad, but not good either.

[torishores]

Wichita Falls was the only Texas metro area to lose population in the 2010 census.

[7ry1an3]

Anyone who has been to Galveston recently will see that its starting to come up alot. Lots of new condos and hotels and beach houses and can't forget pleasure pier. After Hurricane Rita and Ike Galveston started to lift itself up and its done a good job so far. As far as competition with Houston I don't think there is any anymore. Houston has kinda just adopted Galveston as "its" beach.

[7ry1an3]

But to answer the question I don't think any of the Major Texas cities will become minor. San Antonio just needs to be more modern but alot of people want to keep it as the older more historic Texas city which makes sense. But modernizing it would be great for the city and the state. Thats why i like Texas, all the large cities are so geographically and demographically different that none can really steal the others fame or identity.

[dallasboi]

Originally Posted by 7ry1an3

But to answer the question I don't think any of the Major Texas cities will become minor. San Antonio just needs to be more modern but alot of people want to keep it as the older more historic Texas city which makes sense. But modernizing it would be great for the city and the state. Thats why i like Texas, all the large cities are so geographically and demographically different that none can really steal the others fame or identity.

So true.