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Old 09-18-2015, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Florida
2,232 posts, read 2,101,863 times
Reputation: 1910

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I was hoping the worst of the oil bust was over. I don't live in Texas but this type of thing spills over into other states.

Texas lost 13,700 jobs in August, the second monthly job loss this year | | Dallas Morning News

Job growth in Texas has been really bad for 2015. There is a possibility that when revisions come out in the beginning of 2016 they could look even worse than we see now. Yet somehow, unemployment has remained extremely low. Texas has not seen an unemployment rate of 4.1% since the Clinton era. I wonder if seasonal factors are what is keeping the unemployment rate low and that a rise is immanent in the later half of the year. Even though the BLS makes an effort to seasonally adjust state unemployment numbers, variation does arise and sometimes significantly.

Do things feel bad in Texas right now? I'm kind of curious how it must be over there because when I see a 4.1% unemployment rate I think to myself how great the economy must be, but the job numbers just aren't adding up.

Here in Florida things are better than I have ever seen since I was a teenager, but Florida has a negligible energy sector and is one of the states to benefit most from oil price reductions. Everyone seems to be hiring and small businesses are thriving. Sorry to brag but since it only happens once every oil bust I'm just going to toot Florida's horn because we are on track to be #2 job creator in the nation this year, only behind California. . Florida is always playing third fiddle to Texas and California.......

Strangely, New York lost 13.7 thousand jobs as well. Don't know why that happened....
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Old 09-18-2015, 05:53 PM
 
Location: Upper Kirby, Houston, TX
1,347 posts, read 1,806,139 times
Reputation: 1018
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close View Post
I was hoping the worst of the oil bust was over. I don't live in Texas but this type of thing spills over into other states.

Texas lost 13,700 jobs in August, the second monthly job loss this year | | Dallas Morning News

Job growth in Texas has been really bad for 2015. There is a possibility that when revisions come out in the beginning of 2016 they could look even worse than we see now. Yet somehow, unemployment has remained extremely low. Texas has not seen an unemployment rate of 4.1% since the Clinton era. I wonder if seasonal factors are what is keeping the unemployment rate low and that a rise is immanent in the later half of the year. Even though the BLS makes an effort to seasonally adjust state unemployment numbers, variation does arise and sometimes significantly.

Do things feel bad in Texas right now? I'm kind of curious how it must be over there because when I see a 4.1% unemployment rate I think to myself how great the economy must be, but the job numbers just aren't adding up.

Here in Florida things are better than I have ever seen since I was a teenager, but Florida has a negligible energy sector and is one of the states to benefit most from oil price reductions. Everyone seems to be hiring and small businesses are thriving. Sorry to brag but since it only happens once every oil bust I'm just going to toot Florida's horn because we are on track to be #2 job creator in the nation this year, only behind California. . Florida is always playing third fiddle to Texas and California.......

Strangely, New York lost 13.7 thousand jobs as well. Don't know why that happened....
Unemployment does not take into account discouraged workers, or those that have been left out of employment for x amount of weeks/months. I forget the exact number of what x is, but I'm sure someone will correct me below. In Houston, only those directly in the oil industry on the upstream side are feeling the pressure. The residential growth has slowed from a boom but still happening at national averages, and many retail/office projects are still going up. Of course, people often say that it takes about 12-18 months to actually feel the effect of a recession, so perhaps you can check in at about 6 months from now since it has been roughly a year since oil prices fell.
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Old 09-18-2015, 05:55 PM
 
4,500 posts, read 5,000,563 times
Reputation: 13331
That's because the un-employment numbers are false. The government quit counting those out of work who have quit looking and consider part time, low wage jobs as gains. I notice in our area, all of the fast food joints are hiring but they're the only ones.
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Old 09-18-2015, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Florida
2,232 posts, read 2,101,863 times
Reputation: 1910
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization for States

This is a cool chart showing broad spectrum unemployment rates for states.

The broader spectrum unemployment rates are improving too. You are right though that part time jobs have made up a lot of the job growth, even in previously strong economies like Texas.
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Old 09-19-2015, 06:36 PM
 
3,491 posts, read 6,935,522 times
Reputation: 1736
I would not call this a bust in Texas at this point.I think its a downturn.I was living here in Midland during '98 and '99 and it was scary so we are not close to that point yet here.
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Old 09-20-2015, 12:16 AM
 
26,152 posts, read 21,387,601 times
Reputation: 22751
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodpete View Post
That's because the un-employment numbers are false. The government quit counting those out of work who have quit looking and consider part time, low wage jobs as gains. I notice in our area, all of the fast food joints are hiring but they're the only ones.
The numbers aren't false

When did the govt count those who stopped looking for work?
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Old 09-20-2015, 10:00 AM
 
4,500 posts, read 5,000,563 times
Reputation: 13331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
The numbers aren't false

When did the govt count those who stopped looking for work?

When it made the unemployment numbers look bad ! Do you not read a newspaper ?
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Old 09-20-2015, 01:10 PM
 
26,152 posts, read 21,387,601 times
Reputation: 22751
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodpete View Post
When it made the unemployment numbers look bad ! Do you not read a newspaper ?

That's not the correct answer. When did govt drop discouraged unemployed folks from the unemployment number? Can you tell me the last year in which they were included in the number?
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Old 09-20-2015, 03:43 PM
 
4,231 posts, read 3,532,016 times
Reputation: 2207
I believe these are U3 figures.

You should look for U6.

They represent economy better.
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Old 09-21-2015, 10:51 AM
 
5,251 posts, read 6,340,994 times
Reputation: 6216
The latest stats show most of Texas' job losses in the Houston area. The Dallas side of the DFW metroplex is still gaining jobs, Ft Worth is lagging, and the rest of the state is stable.

August 2015:
Dallas-Plano-Irving Metro: +7,300
Austin-Round Rock MSA: +1,200
San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA: -1,000
Ft. Worth-Arlington Metro: -2,300
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland MSA: -11,800
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