When will Real Estate Hit Bottom? (Dallas, Rockport: balloon payment, real estate market, foreclosures)

[G Grasshopper]

Is there anyone who would venture a guess about when Texas real estate will bottom out and start back up? I have heard some say that this summer there will be more balloon payments due, with a round of forclosures. I have also heard an opinion that with a new president, real estate will start to rebound. I know there are a lot of realtors and other knowledgeable people who visit this forum. Any opinions?

[destin04]

In the East Texas area.....we've hit and are on our way back up. Not booming...but doing okay...but to be honest...we never ballooned so we didn't have to bust!

[atxcio]

It'd have to start falling before it can hit bottom! Most of the TX metros are still on the way up, from what I understand. Forclosures are higher, I'm sure, but the problems here tend to be where there is an oversupply issue (newly built burbs, etc) -- not like a "value correction" like in other markets, where prices saw huge increases.

So, if there is a bottom it's not going to look much different from the top, at least this go-around.

[Lakewooder]

Real Estate inside LBJ in Dallas is generally appreciating well -- the last report was somewhat stagnant except for East Dallas/Lakewood with 4% appreciation. Other recent reports in the Dallas Morning News showed a small (1388 sq feet) East Dallas typical 20s Tudor going up more than $30,000 in the last year and the Lakewood Advocate shows $50-100K increases in the last year.

[case44]

To answer the question, I hope never. But in Texas, you go anywhere and there's no sign of a slowdown at all. I think we're more aggressive than other parts of the country by a mile. Even if it does go down a little, it is sure to come back up. I do have some concerns about whether we're overbuilding, but then, our whole nation's always had a resilient economy, and people are still moving here for one reason or another. Plus, people graduate from college and then try to get established, too, so you have to consider that into the equation.

[momof2dfw]

Originally Posted by atxcio

It'd have to start falling before it can hit bottom! Most of the TX metros are still on the way up, from what I understand. Forclosures are higher, I'm sure, but the problems here tend to be where there is an oversupply issue (newly built burbs, etc) -- not like a "value correction" like in other markets, where prices saw huge increases.

So, if there is a bottom it's not going to look much different from the top, at least this go-around.

No kidding. Many areas in Texas have NOT seen a drop at all and have stayed steady in appreciating in value.

Foreclosure hit areas are in the FAR burbs out of most cities that had developers/builders throwing up crappy homes as cheap as they could. Every news report that has been done on the "down real estate market" in the Dallas Metroplex area has been in those areas and in lower price homes. Anything that orginally sold for less than $150K in the last 2 years as a new build are the areas hit hard. For that price range your over an hour away from the main city center, in a crackerbox house, on a teeny-tiny lot, in a subdivision of 100's of homes that all look alike. Come in closer and you won't see the foreclosures except no more than you would at any other time be the market good or bad.

In my area a good home w/ the right updates/amenities sells in less than 30 days and pretty close to list. The listing prices are also setting record highs as well.

[loves2read]

the real estate problems in TX is very much related to locality and specifics to that area-
there are definitely foreclosures going on in Dallas -- FTW and other areas of TX--in small and big towns and in the country but the economy here is strong--people are moving in from out of state and many areas are slow but selling fairly well this spring--

I think the mortgage people have gotten their acts together and are lending money again--for a while people were too scared and money was tight--

[High_Plains_Retired]

Originally Posted by G Grasshopper

Is there anyone who would venture a guess about when Texas real estate will bottom out and start back up? I have heard some say that this summer there will be more balloon payments due, with a round of forclosures. I have also heard an opinion that with a new president, real estate will start to rebound. I know there are a lot of realtors and other knowledgeable people who visit this forum. Any opinions?

I own homes and commercial property in west Texas and in New Mexico and both State have prices that are appreciating. Except in the winter months, my Albuquerque, New Mexico westside neighborhood has hardly wavered in it's growth ifor the past several years. Our west Texas properties are in a small town that hasn't seen significant appreciation in home prices in years but even it was appraised at an 8% growth this year.

This is an election year. There is always hype about some sort of ailment in the economy before an election. The hype only suppresses prices in areas that are already over-inflated. Except for the ability to grandstand issues, Washington D.C. has little to do with real estate prices. If if it did, I would have set myself up for life during the decade I spent inside the Beltway.

[Chickrae]

Originally Posted by High_Plains_Retired

I own homes and commercial property in west Texas and in New Mexico and both State have prices that are appreciating. Except in the winter months, my Albuquerque, New Mexico westside neighborhood has hardly wavered in it's growth ifor the past several years. Our west Texas properties are in a small town that hasn't seen significant appreciation in home prices in years but even it was appraised at an 8% growth this year.

This is an election year. There is always hype about some sort of ailment in the economy before an election. The hype only suppresses prices in areas that are already over-inflated. Except for the ability to grandstand issues, Washington D.C. has little to do with real estate prices. If if it did, I would have set myself up for life during the decade I spent inside the Beltway.

What about South Texas area? Is it a good time to buy there? Port Aransas, Rockport etc? I am not from the state so just wondering.

[High_Plains_Retired]

Originally Posted by Chickrae

What about South Texas area? Is it a good time to buy there? Port Aransas, Rockport etc? I am not from the state so just wondering.

I have never lived in or owned property in South Texas so I can't speculate on the real estate situation there. My comment was to say that, in general, Texas and New Mexico have continued to grow through the media hype.