Not a great sign for the Texas is turning Blue crowd. (Houston: transplants, crime)

[silas777]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/texas...ns-red-for-gop

[As Above So Below...]

Texas is changing and its part of a national trend.

Blue collar and small town Hispanics (as well as those of Cuban and Venezuelan origin) are trending red. White suburbanites are trending blue. Urban Hispanics, African-Americans, and Asians are sticking blue and rural whites are sticking red.

How that affects the electorate is simply a tug of war between those forces.

[silas777]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

Texas is changing and its part of a national trend.

Blue collar and small town Hispanics (as well as those of Cuban and Venezuelan origin) are trending red. White suburbanites are trending blue. Urban Hispanics, African-Americans, and Asians are sticking blue and rural whites are sticking red.

How that affects the electorate is simply a tug of war between those forces.

Well you are right in one aspect the electorate is ever changing, I.e. contrary to popular belief Texas wasn't always a red state , It used to be very blue state before there was such a red state /blue state description. Point is , the narrative of the left is, Texas once again is turning blue. This election last night is just another brake pump on that whole fantasy. Yes , yes I know the argument that white liberals are moving into the cities from the left coast and that is tipping the scales. But it remains to be seen... if Hispanics continue to move right that is very large number . Bobby O'Rourke won Lujans district by 20 points, Biden won it by 14. That is a pretty big "Lets go Brandon" from a 70+% Hispanic district in just one year.
We will see how the perpetual loser O'Rourke does this next try as he runs against Abbott for Governor.

[Need4Camaro]

TBH many people moving from the coasts into TX are actually conservative or moderates. California, Oregon and Washington contrary to popular belief are not entirely blue states.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by silas777

Well you are right in one aspect the electorate is ever changing, I.e. contrary to popular belief Texas wasn't always a red state , It used to be very blue state before there was such a red state /blue state description. Point is , the narrative of the left is, Texas once again is turning blue. This election last night is just another brake pump on that whole fantasy. Yes , yes I know the argument that white liberals are moving into the cities from the left coast and that is tipping the scales. But it remains to be seen... if Hispanics continue to move right that is very large number . Bobby O'Rourke won Lujans district by 20 points, Biden won it by 14. That is a pretty big "Lets go Brandon" from a 70+% Hispanic district in just one year.
We will see how the perpetual loser O'Rourke does this next try as he runs against Abbott for Governor.

A couple of things:

1) Democrats were not liberals prior to Nixon. They still did have very populist views especially in the FDR days which is why big spending was never an issue for him just as it wasnt for Trump, but there was a marriage between social conservatives of the South (Dixiecrats) and the pro-union populists of the north. Now those two groups are firmly in the GOP.

2) I dont know too many people who actually think Texas will be a blue state, but the statistics do show Texas will be less red (ie purple). We can look at the trends over the last decade and they clearly show that. The reason for that is simply because the suburbs are outgrowing every other area.

3) Its the type of Hispanic that makes the difference. Urban Hispanics arent shifting red but those outside the Texas triangle are. So that also makes a difference.

This isnt my way of saying Texas is going blue or anything like that, but it is more complex than this.

[silas777]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

A couple of things:

1) Democrats were not liberals prior to Nixon. They still did have very populist views especially in the FDR days which is why big spending was never an issue for him just as it wasnt for Trump, but there was a marriage between social conservatives of the South (Dixiecrats) and the pro-union populists of the north. Now those two groups are firmly in the GOP.

2) I dont know too many people who actually think Texas will be a blue state, but the statistics do show Texas will be less red (ie purple). We can look at the trends over the last decade and they clearly show that. The reason for that is simply because the suburbs are outgrowing every other area.

3) Its the type of Hispanic that makes the difference. Urban Hispanics arent shifting red but those outside the Texas triangle are. So that also makes a difference.

This isnt my way of saying Texas is going blue or anything like that, but it is more complex than this.

Nevertheless my post stands ... as of yesterday a very blue seat in the Texas legislature went Red, not the other way around.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by silas777

Nevertheless my post stands ... as of yesterday a very blue seat in the Texas legislature went Red, not the other way around.

Ok, but its not something to read much into. In that district, there are a very large number of rural Hispanics, vets, and it runs into a conservative parts of the Bexar/Comal county line. Its not a place that was ever hard left and it has a large number of the demographics that has shifted right in the last decade.

We cannot say anything about statewide trends based on that.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

TBH many people moving from the coasts into TX are actually conservative or moderates. California, Oregon and Washington contrary to popular belief are not entirely blue states.

It seems more and more clear over time that this sentiment is correct.

[DabOnEm]

I've heard Texas is "turning blue" since at least 2008 and this was ramped up during Obama's first term and then leading into 2016. It keeps getting pushed back because like was mentioned many folks moving to TX tend to be more conservative. There's this false notion that a California Republican is a Texas Democrat but it doesn't really work out that way. Also young Texans may vote for democrats initially but tend to vote conservative as they get older, and a lot of young Texans right now have grown up, buying houses, etc., and like things the way they are.

Crime and the economy are the two biggest issues and those two things aren't something that has been good to Democrats the last couple years.

[As Above So Below...]

There is way too much generalization of people who move to Texas from the West Coast and Northeast.

My hypothesis is that it all goes back to where people move to. People who move from those places to Austin, Inside the Beltway in Houston, or Dallas County are more than likely not going to be conservative because those places arent conservative to begin with. Those that move and buy giant houses in Prosper or Comal County probably are. But even then we cant say that.

The majority of people in knew who moved from LA to Plano when I lived there moved to have more space and only a couple cited politics. In Houston, every single person I know from the West Coast that moved here is a solid blue voter. Im sure if I lived in Conroe that would be a different story.

Its also important to remember that being a Republican in Orange County vs. rural/suburban Texas are two VERY different things. They arent into the Bible thumping approach to public policy but rather they just want their taxes to be low. Ive personally known people who move here as Republicans and vote for Democrats at the state level for that reason. You arent going to find many Republican transplants from the West Coast to Texas who think the new abortion law is good policy. Hell, most Texans dont even think that if polls are to be believed.

All we can do is look at statewide election results which suggest that Texas has moved from Conservative to right of center probably thanks to those that moved here from out of state. So saying Texas will always remain as it is or that Texas will turn blue is unfounded. The correct answer is that we dont know. We can only look at trends and even they can be misleading.