will odessa and midland grow more (Lubbock, Levelland: apartments, hotels, houses)

[whitegiant]

i used to live in odessa and moved a year ago do you think that they will keep growing

[Lucidus]

I think so. I notice that you commented on a post of mine in another thread in which I predict that Midland-Odessa will soon overtake Lubbock (along with Levelland) in population. I am not a demographer but some quick a dirty calculations have convinced me that this is certainly possible and even probable. You rightly pointed out that oil will be the most important factor in the future growth of the area , and I agree. However, there are some other important factors to consider.

One is that the turn around in MO actually started before the recent run up in oil prices. People in MO are very aware of the fickle nature of the petroleum industry and are undertaking a major effort to diversify the economy. Some of the success stories in diversification have been in the industries of health care, services and call centers, trade and distribution, and even defense contractors.

Secondly and ironically, the oil industry is actually hurting growth in M-O right now. It has become difficult for other industries to compete with oil related industries for employees right now. Some businesses have had to close because they simply cannot attract enough workers, other businesses would like to expand but cannot do so until the size of the labor pool increases. A slight downturn in oil prices would actually be good for MO, but naturally a complete collapse in prices would not.

I would never try to predict the price of oil (least I offend the oil gods), but given the new realities of the global oil market all indications are that prices will remain relatively high for the foreseeable future albeit lower than they've been so far this year. As long as oil prices stay above about $50 a barrel, the outlook for MO is good.

As a city grows it becomes less dependent on the industries that fueled its early growth. If MO could have the good fortune to avoid an oil bust for the next 10 years or so it could reach a tipping point and develop some population and economic momentum to mitigate the effects of the boom and bust cycle of the oilfield.

[case44]

I agree. They don't need to be totally dependent on oil. In West Texas, there are opportunities for technology and research, as well as medicine. There's still the ranching business, too. The Permian Basin is very fortunate. And I don't believe the ranching business is dead; rather, it's thriving, so opportunities still abound there. People are always moving to Texas, and M-O is just one of those places. Cities today just need to be visionary and, above all, innovative. You never know when someone in your city might create something totally new that's never been seen or done before, and it could be happening in your city. Just think: the next new thing. That's the kind of thing any city would embrace.

[ihodtx]

They won't ever grown unless they build more houses and apartments.You can have all the jobs in the world but if people can't find a place to live they can't move here to work.Instead of building new restraunts hotels and shopping centers they should focus more on building housing so people can move in and fill the jobs.

[dontbugme]

It will never grow. The mindset of people here just won't let it. Believe me, I'd love to be wrong, but I'm not.

[WillysB]

Yes, most anywhere of substantial size in Texas will continue to grow. As industry leaves the north and more people realize 'it's just more year round fun in the south' anywhere south of the hard freeze line will grow.

And in deference to dontbugme, that growth will be relative to a city's willingness to invite change.