Hurricane Ike - Texas Watch! (Houston, Austin: motel, neighborhood, pharmacists)

[Trainwreck20]

The problem here is that the coastal plains are not much above sea level and the storm surge could be huge from this one. I am assuming that you were on Kaua'i? I am assuming that most of the population on the island wasn't under water, as there is a rapid rise to mountainous regions. Although I agree, there is a little overkill on the panic here, if you are in an area one or two feet above high tide (and that is a large area) and there is a 15-20 foot storm surge, there may be some serious problems. The low lying coastal plains go for miles inland in some places...

I have not checked the tides and compared them with the landfall projected times. Exactly where it hits (within just a few miles) makes a huge difference.

After a quick search (and cannot vouch for Wiki's accuracy):

A hurricane watch was issued for Kaua'i early on September 11 and was upgraded to a hurricane warning later that day. Prior to Iniki's arrival in Kaua'i, 8,000 people were housed in shelters, most of whom remembered Hurricane Iwa 10 years prior. Rather than sending tourists to public shelters, two major hotels kept their occupants in the buildings during the storm's passage. During the evacuation of the island, people left days before to family, friends or shelters. Because schools were cancelled, traffic was light and evacuation was well-executed.

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Given that the population of Kaua'i was ~17,000 people in 1990, it seems that many, if not most, either evacuated or found a shelter and did not stay in their home. Galveston County alone is ~285,000. If you just ratio that up, you end up with 50 dead.

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by KauaiFinn

This (below) is the most ridiculous, panic-stricken and exagerrated notice i've ever read my entire life. Whoever wrote this (assuming it is even legitimate) should be fired.

And the poster who took the liberty to edit this notice & create even more panic should be ashamed of himself.

Honestly, folks... I've survived a direct hit by a catgory 4 hurricane (Hurricane Iniki) that struck my tiny little island -in the middle of the pacific ocean- and only 3 people died.

Of those 3 deaths: 2 were eldery people, and the cause of death was heart attack!

There was no "evacuation" prior to the hurricane --because there was no such privelige. Where can one evacuate to anyway when there are not even flights going out?

And, after the storm: rescue took many weeks to arrive!

We lived without electric, water, telephone communications, or any sort of help for months! Many people's homes were utterly destroyed, but they simply threw up a few tarps, camped out, and calmly got working on clean up & repairs. ....We had most the roads cleared off & many repairs done ourselves before any agencies were able to get here to help us!

WE DID JUST FINE.

Me thinks you mainland people need to toughen up....

(Psst: And, you're not in New Orleans. You're in TEXAS!)

• Find a solid shelter if you can.
• If you cannot: use common sense and find a place in your home that is most solid (and bring your bed matresses to cover yourselves with if needed).
• Watch out for flying objects (duh!)
• and stay away from windows.

Considering you're not on an island, rescue teams will be there in no time. So, relax! Take a chill pill. Enjoy Mother nature's show, and when it's over: start helping each other with whatever assistance is needed -rather than lazily waiting for Government agencies to do all the work.

No one is saying the winds will kill people, it is the flooding. Hurricane Iniki passed through a Hawaiian Island, many of the areas on this island are above sea level. It was also relatively a fast moving storm, so mudslides weren't an issue. There were also several evacuations during the storm leaving many of the most vulnerable out of harms way.

It is irresponsible to say that the people along the Texas coast are being overwarned, they are not. 20 foot storm surge projections will cause the effects indicated in that discussion simply due to elevaction problems. Most of the East-Texas coast is low lying with respect to sea level and a large population live in these flood zones.


EDIT: I will not accept any BASELESS accusations of altering the statement from the NWS WFO in Houston. I posted the direct link in a later post.

[AnthonySA]

Follow up:

Here's the projected storm surge


That coupled with hours of hurricane force winds will cause massive damage to areas that do flood.

[soulful]

CNN is showing excellent imaging of what will happen to Galveston at various levels of storm surge. At 15 to 20 feet, the island will be 95% underwater. CNN is stating current estimates at Galveston are for 20plus feet surges.

Galveston will most likely be almost completely underwater. To make matters worse, 25% of the population has refused to evacuate per a city official who was just interviewed.

[Trainwreck20]

I take the storm surge estimates with a grain of salt, though....usually, there is a range (15-20 feet, for example) and it is usually only at a 'maximum' location, but the media takes the maximum and puts it at the worst location. Now, this could happen, but it often is not quite as bad as they make out. Two or three feet can make a HUGE difference for Galveston. I am hoping that it is somewhat lower than 20 feet - I would just hate to see the damage done to old Galveston .

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

I take the storm surge estimates with a grain of salt, though....usually, there is a range (15-20 feet, for example) and it is usually only at a 'maximum' location, but the media takes the maximum and puts it at the worst location. Now, this could happen, but it often is not quite as bad as they make out. Two or three feet can make a HUGE difference for Galveston. I am hoping that it is somewhat lower than 20 feet - I would just hate to see the damage done to old Galveston .

Yes of course, they are painted with a broad brush to factor in possible fluctuations in track. However, any given point will see these maximum surge heights. In this case, the surge will be over a more widespread area than normal considering the size of the storm.

I believe the underlying message without the media hype is anyone who is caught in the surge zone (where the surge actually occurs) are in serious trouble. The bad news, is that there is uncertainty as to where the surge will be highest and Galveston Island and Galveston Bay are included in this potential area.

[soulful]

Anyone interested. Go to Houston news, entertainment, search and shopping | chron.com - Houston Chronicle and participate in the "live chat" which starts at 2:00pm today with some science guy/hurricane/local expert.

[KauaiFinn]

Ahh, sorry, I did not realize that warning was specifically for coastal areas only.
(Even so, i still stand firm in my stance: that notice was overly-hysterical).

Some people here on Kauai who did get flooded out by the enormous ocean surges managed to find trees to cling onto while riding out the storm -and until waters backed off. (yes, we do have some areas that are at, below, or just slightly above sea-level here)

But, if i recall correctly, there are not many trees out there in TX....

What is the reason some coastal people not evacuating?
Are there shelters for people with pets? How about farm animals?
PLEASE tell me there are!

OK, so now that i understand more clearly, people living in the coastal areas most certainly should evacuate.
Is anyone out there offering their homes to people for shelter to the coastal people? (Especially those with pets!)
If there are people who are willing to offer shelter to the people from coastal areas, are they posting their contact info in a site somewhere?

Aloha, and hang in there (perhaps quite literally)!

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by KauaiFinn

Ahh, sorry, I did not realize that warning was specifically for coastal areas only.
(Even so, i still stand firm in my stance: that notice was overly-hysterical).

Some people here on Kauai who did get flooded out by the enormous ocean surges managed to find trees to cling onto while riding out the storm -and until waters backed off. (yes, we do have some areas that are at, below, or just slightly above sea-level here)

But, if i recall correctly, there are not many trees out there in TX....

What is the reason some coastal people not evacuating?
Are there shelters for people with pets? How about farm animals?
PLEASE tell me there are!

OK, so now that i understand more clearly, people living in the coastal areas most certainly should evacuate.
Is anyone out there offering their homes to people for shelter to the coastal people? (Especially those with pets!)
If there are people who are willing to offer shelter to the people from coastal areas, are they posting their contact info in a site somewhere?

Aloha, and hang in there (perhaps quite literally)!

I couldn't explain why some people are staying on the coast... it's beyond any reasonable or rational explanation. The island is already flooding and landfall is still several hours away. I do agree with you that no one really needs to evacuate inland unless they are not in a sturdy shelter.

There are several free evacatuation shelters across the entire state and in other states where people can flee... and separate locations for pets. Many people also have relatives that live further inland who are housing them. In addition, the state has dropped the 17% hotel tax.

With regards to flooding, the quicker the storm moves, the more the water can move out. Conversely, if the storm decelerates while making landfall, the water is stuck. The water in Texas won't be able to flow back to sea as easily as Hawaii simply due to it's overall flatness in that part of the state.

I'm certainly hoping and praying for the best for these people, especially along the coast.

[Trainwreck20]

What is the reason some coastal people not evacuating?

Sheer stupidity? I don't know....some people are afraid of looting and such, I suppose. I think many people go off of historical experiences, which are great until you are wrong . If the storm moves about 30 miles up the coast from Galveston, the surge may not even top the sea wall, at least not for more than just the waves. So some people just gamble...

There are many tall buildings in Galveston, but these people will not be there, probably, but in their homes. The newer buildings (what is that massive concrete high-rise on 'stilts'?) are quite sturdy, I suspect. Inland, there are oak trees, but the surge/flood will take out a lot of those.

Do you still live on Kaua'i? We have made a trip there every two or three years for the past decade or so. I remember seeing the information about Iniki, and how the anemometer on the mountainside blew apart ~220 or 230 mph or something. I also heard that the wild ckickens are a result of Iniki blowing so many out of their pens .