Hurricane Ike - Texas Watch!

[5stones]

^Kauai
just google earth it and you can see that Galveston and Galveston Island (all the way to San Luis pass) is really nothing more than a glorified sand bar. some areas are less than 1/2 mile wide...with the gulf on one side and the bay on the other. So you get a storm surg of more than 5ft and that area will become completely covered in water. The waves comming ashore now have knocked over pick-ups on hte hiway...There is ALOT of force in the water.
THERE is NO HIGH ground on those barrier Islands and even along the bay. HOuston FLOODs ALL the time! a short thunderstorm can flood roads etc...

Surfside south west of Galveston is already underwater. Galveston does have the 10mile long seawall....it wont crumble etc....but at 17ft high the waves are already crashing over. North Galveston is on higher ground, but the problem is going to be getting off the Island later today when the winds pick up and the causway bridge will be closed. Then you are stuck there (or you put rescue working in danger trying to save your sorry butt)

DOES the MEDIA over react? yes... and is DEATH is IMMIENT etc... cause panic? yes and people ill freak out etc... Just like snow storms predicted in DC etc...

So does all of houston need to evac? NO, but the coastal areas should, the areas around the Bay should...Kemah, Seabrook etc...

In this type of situation the Emergency personel can not win.... it's either "They OVER REACTED!! we shouldn't have left etc...." or it's..."THEY FAILED US! they didn't MAKE US leave!!"
it's the old double edged sword..your damed if you do and damned if you don't.

ALL I know is that we USED to have a house on Galveston Island..in Sea Isle. Until Alicia came ashore... the entire neighborhood was under 4ft of water and the tornados did more damage than the hurricane winds.

[love roses]

There's a big difference between a tornado warning, floods that come without much warning, and a mandatory evacuation. What part of mandatory makes people think that gambling with their lives is OK?


Probably not the best examples I could use, and yes, if I lived exactly on the island and didn't leave, I'd be a numbskull. But People think they can gamble with their lives because the main issue with them is that it is their life, not yours. (I'm playing devils advocate, not aiming that at you in particular...sorry it doesn't read the way I'm thinking it). For me, personally, having a kid, I would not stay there with her. One of the moms in our playgroup has a cousin in Galveston who wouldn't leave (still won't) and has a kid. One of her other relatives kids drove down there from San Marcos and took everyone else who wanted to evacuate, including the little kid and came back to Austin with them.

[Topaz]

Originally Posted by love roses

But People think they can gamble with their lives because the main issue with them is that it is their life, not yours. (I'm playing devils advocate, not aiming that at you in particular...sorry it doesn't read the way I'm thinking it).

I agree with you that adults can make whatever decisions they like with their own lives. My point was that when they endanger their children with those decisions, it is unacceptable. And I'm not talking about ambiguous situations...I'm only talking about mandatory evacuations when a major hurricane is approaching.

[hound 109]

Some current & projected tide information from Weather Underground:

What jumps out at me is the fact that High Tide for much of the coastal area appears to be from 2-4am.

The other eye popping number is that the water levels of the "shoreline" of Galveston Bay are expected to rise 15 - 22 FEET. Anyone who has driven around Galveston Bay knows this is a VERY flat area. I'm trying to envision 15-22 feet above the bay at shoreline.

Current Tide Levels:

Houston Ship Channel/battleship Texas - 4.7 feet
Clear Lake entrance - 4.6 feet
Rollover Pass - 5.4 feet
Eagle Point - 5.9 feet
Morgans Point - 5.1 feet
North Jetty - 7.7 feet
pier 21 - 6.8 feet
Pleasure Pier - 8.9 feet
Freeport - 7.4 feet
Port O'Connor - 3.6 feet

Water levels will begin rising very rapidly late this afternoon
with water levels peaking between 11 PM and 3 am tonight as the
storm surge spreads onto the coast and Bayshore areas. Maximum
storm tide levels are highly dependent on the track of the storm
and variations in the track of only 15 miles can make differences
of several feet more or less from some of these values.

Maximum water levels forecast:

Shoreline of Galveston Bay... 15 to 22 feet

Bolivar Peninsula... 17 to 20 feet

Galveston Island... ... 14 to 17 feet

Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to
San Luis Pass... 8 to 14 feet

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent... 4 to 7 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda Bay... 3 to 5 feet

Severe inundation is likely near the immediate coast and Bayshore
areas!

Neighborhoods that are affected by the storm surge... and possibly
entire coastal communities... will be inundated during the period
of peak storm tide. Many residences of average construction
directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and
devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles
left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be
swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone
coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet
for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story
facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by
battering waves closer to the coast. Such waves will exacerbate
property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including
those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take
years to repair.

High tide times:

Morgans Point...
Fri 2:52 PM.
Sat 2:59 PM.
Clear Lake entrance...
Sat 10:43 am.
Eagle Point...
Sat 8:32 am.
Port Bolivar...
Fri 1:52 PM.
Sat 4:52 am.
Sat 3:00 PM.
Galveston Channel...
Fri 1:38 PM.
Sat 4:38 am.
Sat 2:46 PM.
Galveston Pleasure Pier...
Sat 3:32 am.
Sat 1:40 PM.
Jamaica Beach...
Fri 4:16 PM.
Sat 7:16 am.
Sat 5:24 PM.
San Luis Pass...
Fri 1:29 PM.
Sat 4:29 am.
Sat 2:37 PM.
Freeport...
Sat 3:54 am.
Sat 2:02 PM.
Port O Connor...
Sat 2:01 PM.

Note... tide levels are referenced from the mean lower low water.

[NOTAM]

just got back from running errands in Gatesville (pretty quiet, normal baseline) but OMG Copperas Cove? it's like another town-the Walgreens had an hour and a half wait (luckily my rx was called in early this morning during my doc appt and only had to wait 20 min when i got there)...the pharmacists said that MOST of the customers are from HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI, not from around here. they said that they have been swamped by evacuees getting their rx's and whatevahs...
and then i went to HEB to get last minute stuff........once again, evacuees-i could tell, they looked like they could be from Houston and Corpus and that area, or at least i could tell they werent military couples/families (which is 90 percent of what we have here)
it's crazy. i guarantee all the hotel/motel rooms in FT HOOD are BOOKED.

[case44]

Well, this thread's title has become a moot point, hasn't it??

[ctrres]

Originally Posted by hound 109

What jumps out at me is the fact that High Tide for much of the coastal area appears to be from 2-4am.

The other eye popping number is that the water levels of the "shoreline" of Galveston Bay are expected to rise 15 - 22 FEET. Anyone who has driven around Galveston Bay knows this is a VERY flat area. I'm trying to envision 15-22 feet above the bay at shoreline.

Tsunami comes to mind.

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by case44

Well, this thread's title has become a moot point, hasn't it??

I agree... can a mod edit the title since the discussion has remained pertinent to the storm.