Hurricane Ike - Texas Watch! (Houston, Galveston: neighborhoods, construction, beach)

[AnthonySA]

ENTER RANT:

I'm watching coverage on KHOU available on San Antonio cable and they are interviewing an idiot who lives on Galveston Island who refuses to leave. He said he was stuck in the Rita evacuations and didn't want to go through that again. What's even worse is his 5 or 6 year old boy is staying with him.

What I never understand is why people who live on the coast do not grasp the risk that they have by living there. If you don't want to evacuate every time a storm heads in your general direction, then why do you live there? These are the same people who expect the government to save them when they stay and get stuck in the storm.

Now forecasts aren't always accurate for several reasons. The most important being the lack of upper air data over the ocean. Inland, especially in the US, there are sounding stations that send up weather balloons to collect data from the upper levels of the atmosphere. Over the ocean, that data is not available. Computer models and upper level analyses are made off of a much stronger extrapolation/interpolation than we have inland. Basic math would tell you that leaves room for plenty of error right there. Try forecasting a single point, or center of circulation over 1000 miles away a few days out given that data. The National Hurricane Center does a great job OBJECTIVELY forecasting where they think the storm is going to make landfall... in fact, they're more conservative than plenty in the meteorological community when it comes to forecasting intensities and tracks.

In addition, in the time needed to prepare an evacuation for large population centers like Houston require a few days notice. At that point there is a large area of uncertainty regarding the potential track. If we waited for definitive certainty with regard to track, it would be too late to safely evacuate those needed.

Therefore, it's important that those who evacuate head these warnings each and every time. You can have 21 storms and evacuate for 20 false alarms, but stay for the one that is catastrophic. No decision to evacuate is made lightly by governmental officials and neither are the forecasts for major hurricanes.

END RANT

[spursfan]

Originally Posted by AnthonySA

ENTER RANT:

I'm watching coverage on KHOU available on San Antonio cable and they are interviewing an idiot who lives on Galveston Island who refuses to leave. He said he was stuck in the Rita evacuations and didn't want to go through that again. What's even worse is his 5 or 6 year old boy is staying with him.

What I never understand is why people who live on the coast do not grasp the risk that they have by living there. If you don't want to evacuate every time a storm heads in your general direction, then why do you live there? These are the same people who expect the government to save them when they stay and get stuck in the storm.

Now forecasts aren't always accurate for several reasons. The most important being the lack of upper air data over the ocean. Inland, especially in the US, there are sounding stations that send up weather balloons to collect data from the upper levels of the atmosphere. Over the ocean, that data is not available. Computer models and upper level analyses are made off of a much stronger extrapolation/interpolation than we have inland. Basic math would tell you that leaves room for plenty of error right there. Try forecasting a single point, or center of circulation over 1000 miles away a few days out given that data. The National Hurricane Center does a great job OBJECTIVELY forecasting where they think the storm is going to make landfall... in fact, they're more conservative than plenty in the meteorological community when it comes to forecasting intensities and tracks.

In addition, in the time needed to prepare an evacuation for large population centers like Houston require a few days notice. At that point there is a large area of uncertainty regarding the potential track. If we waited for definitive certainty with regard to track, it would be too late to safely evacuate those needed.

Therefore, it's important that those who evacuate head these warnings each and every time. You can have 21 storms and evacuate for 20 false alarms, but stay for the one that is catastrophic. No decision to evacuate is made lightly by governmental officials and neither are the forecasts for major hurricanes.

END RANT

what channel is this?

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by AnthonySA

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary ... you'll have to scroll down to see it. It's there.. and certainly unbelievable. That is the most dire message I've read since New Orleans before Katrina:

It is unbelievable that it actually came from the NWS.. all I can think of is that they have been given license to be as "scary" as they want in the interest of making people evacuate. It actually reads like a spanish media version, way over the top sensationalism. Perhaps it's for that audience?

Anyway, I did note that the link has some different wording... for example "WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH" has been changed to "MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH"...

thank goodness cooler heads have prevailed

[amyboone]

They said on the news last night the storm surge is predicted at 10 feet up to a mile inland. You do the math. I see major destruction. They did all they could to get people out, including letting them take their pets and giving them transportation. I see it as being another storm such at the 1900 storm. They say that the water will be like a wall of wet concrete. No matter how much plyboard you nail up, that is not going to stop the water.

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by spursfan

what channel is this?

HOUSTON, TEXAS NEWS | KHOU.com | News for Houston, Texas this channel is available on TXCN or TimeWarner SA channel 232.

[AnthonySA]

This is a certainly jaw dropping graphic, and indeed verifies what the NWS in Houston has stated.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i45_gl2.gif

[love roses]

It's only a cat 2. Why so much drama? Cat 2's/3's even back 20 yrs. ago never drew this much drama. They bring up the 1900 Hurricane, but part of the reason it was so devastating then was that there was no seawall. If I lived in Galveston, I would evacuate for anything over a 1, but if I lived in Clear Lake (which I have) and Houston (which I have) I would just sit it out. My bestest friend ever lives in Brazoria and I know they had evac orders, but as far as I know, she's not leaving either. When I was growing up around there and we had hurricanes, we never left for them, just rode them out. Again, though, If I lived right on the beach/island, I'd leave and go further inland.

[Trainwreck20]

It all depends on exactly where it hits...if the surge is as big as they say it might get, then I would probably leave the area. The surge may be more on par with a cat 3 or 4 because of the sheer size of this guy. It could actually top the sea wall if the storm increased a bit and hit at high tide.

The west end of Galveston is where they really should worry....it has no seawall and is where all the newer development is.

[Topaz]

I think if you are a parent and you live in a mandatory evacuation zone, you have the responsibility to your children to evacuate as instructed. Otherwise, it is child endangerment. It is upsetting to see a Galveston mother with three small children talking about "hunkering down" because there is a strong probability that by the time she realizes she should have left, she and her children will be in real (potentially fatal) trouble.

[love roses]

I'm not sure it should be considered child endangerment. That's a slippery slope. Would you have to include not leaving town when you hear about tornado warnings? What about when it just rains a lot during a spring storm and there is flooding. There's definitely a need for some Darwin awards for people who do that, though.