Lubbock in 2020 (Austin, Garland, Laredo: hotels, technology jobs, to buy)

[case44]

Here's all the more reason for the city to continue its upward trend.

Take a look. This may surprise some of you. Market*News

[vantexan]

Originally Posted by case44

With as many people as they have coming from Eastern New Mexico, expanding the area's shopping opportunities wouldn't hurt, either. They've got a couple things going on on the southwest side that are intriguing.

As far as people living there, I wouldn't mind seeing a metro population of a million, and that's doable by the year you're suggesting. Lubbock city proper could have half a million. I see the surrounding areas (at least, Wolfforth, Shallowater, New Deal, Woodrow, and Idalou) definitely picking up new residents. But some things, of course, are going to have to happen.

790,000 more in 11 years? What would drive that? It's taken more than 100 years to get to about 210,000. Look at Austin. State Capital, huge university, technology center, great scenery, rivers and lakes, central location. That's the kind of factors that drive growth. Lubbock has some positives, but most of it's growth has come from surrounding counties. The one thing needed to bring people in droves is the ability to make very good money. Midland/Odessa has that, Lubbock doesn't. I'm leaving for East Texas Friday. Milder winters, trees, grass, and lakes just are more worth it to me than Lubbock's dry air. Being 100 miles from a major city is more attractive than being able to fly there on Southwest too.

[case44]

Originally Posted by vantexan

790,000 more in 11 years? What would drive that? It's taken more than 100 years to get to about 210,000.

Vantexan, I was talking about the metro area, not Lubbock proper. You didn't read my entire post, my friend. I said that Lubbock as a city could reach 500,000 by 2020 if certain things fell just right. Lubbock has small towns that surround the city, and, except for Wolfforth, nothing's happened in those places yet, but that's not to say nothing will. I really believe that that area is ready for something to happen. You alluded to Austin in your comment, and there was a time when Austin was a much smaller place before the explosive growth came in the 80s and 90s. I think the tide eventually will turn to West Texas, as well.

[shoe01]

The reason I want McDougal to start with is that he has a track record of success, and that in Overton Park, he worked with others to make that into what it is today. Plus, vibrant downtowns can help with luring companies from elsewhere (see Boeing and Chicago).

[vantexan]

Originally Posted by case44

Vantexan, I was talking about the metro area, not Lubbock proper. You didn't read my entire post, my friend. I said that Lubbock as a city could reach 500,000 by 2020 if certain things fell just right. Lubbock has small towns that surround the city, and, except for Wolfforth, nothing's happened in those places yet, but that's not to say nothing will. I really believe that that area is ready for something to happen. You alluded to Austin in your comment, and there was a time when Austin was a much smaller place before the explosive growth came in the 80s and 90s. I think the tide eventually will turn to West Texas, as well.

Sorry, looked at your post closer, 500,000 in Lubbock, 1,000,000 in the metro area. But my post still holds up. Lubbock's metro area population, including Lubbock itself is only about 40,000 or so more than the population of Lubbock. Austin has multiple factors that contributed to it's explosive growth. What's the attraction for Lubbock? Unless they discover billions of barrels of oil nearby I just don't see what would bring 750,000 people in 11 years. Alot of oil probably wouldn't bring more than 100,000 more, if that much. Not that there won't be any growth, but by 2020 the metro area probably will still be under 300,000, 350,000 by 2050. The single best thing Lubbock could do is develop downtown as a place to live, with restaurants, groceries, movie theatres, bookstores, medical facilities, green spaces. Downtown already has an excellent library and convention center. Make it a liveable, walkable place for singles and retirees and you might have something. As long as the choice is to drive everywhere then what sets Lubbock apart from other places?

[case44]

You do make some good points, van. You know something, folks? I'm just a big dreamer. Other Texas cities that experienced growth were, in part, the result of big dreams. I've always dreamed of what this fine city could be. A vibrant downtown with a memorable skyline to complement the beautiful sunset of West Texas. A place for business and entrepreneurship. Creative neighborhoods. Innovative landscaping and architecture. Large lots mixed with small lots. Unique places to visit. New tourism and heavy promotion. We could have downtown and three other concentrated "city centers". A potential new airport, in addition to a small business airport. A potential hub-and-spoke freeway artery system that would move people to and from places like Dallas, Wichita Falls, Amarillo, Albuquerque, El Paso, San Angelo, Austin, Abilene, and Houston. Based on figures and percentages from all these past years, yes, Lubbock would only reach 300,000 people in the city by 2020. But there's nothing wrong with vision, and every time I drive in that city, I keep thinking, "Why isn't this place bigger?" What if?? And I've already read many reasons from a lot of people about why Lubbock isn't bigger than it is, but those things should never squelch the vision others have. I realize it's going to take much more, maybe even oil. But it could also be something else. Someone might have a new invention and could see something coming out of that, or maybe one or two of Lubbock's locally-owned companies might go big-time and a headquarters could be based there. Don't forget, too, that wind power is the wave of the future, what with many new turbines being built in the ground like giant insects, and Lubbock could very well be a future home of a company specializing in wind power. I said it could be. Windmills are all over the place in that city, and so much so that I wouldn't surprised to see one in one of the city's restrooms. When you build a city, any city, there will always be obstacles, but the key is overcoming them.

As outrageous as some of this might sound to a lot of people, things like I just described are not impossible, and dust storms, tumbleweeds, flooding, politics, and isolation shouldn't have to keep people from having vision. I'm going with my gut on this, but I just get this feeling something's going to happen.

And that's a good thing.

[Westerner92]

Lubbock is not growing at a penomenal rate like Dallas, Houston, and Austin, but it is growing at a "brisk" pace. Right now we are in the phase of preparing for the boom. Downtown, which is one mile square is about to be rebuilt from the ground up, a new buisiness park is being built on the north side, and our third freeway is being built, with a second loop in the planning phase. Rumor has it that several companies are keeping a close eye on Lubbock because our demographics are "interesting" (code for possible boom). Depending on what these companies do, the Lubbock metro could be anything from 250 to 400K by 2020. There's my two cents.

[juggler]

I've been reading the posts in this forum with interest and decided to jump in with my 3 cents worth. I was born and grew up in Lubbock and have lived several places in Texas, including Austin, and now live in the fantastic, gorgeous city of Portland, Oregon.

Lubbock has a few major things going for it, and a lot of stuff going against it. Two main things in the plus column are Texas Tech and the low cost of living. Without Tech, Lubbock would be a small dusty town. Tech brings in students from all over the world, lots of research (and the money that comes with it) and recognition/exposure of the city (e.g. UT vs. TTU football game this weekend). The low cost of living attracts (or should attract) lots of people from more expensive areas. It really is cheap to live in Lubbock. Granted, prices have gone up a bit lately, but nowhere near as bad as some other places. The people are friendly, traffic is light, and the weather, for the most part, is good - at least there's no real extremes.

Now the minuses. Lubbock is not really pro-business. There are NO major corporations headquartered in the city. In fact, no company really has a large presence at all in Lubbock. The biggest employers are Tech and the hospitals. The Lubbock Economic Development Alliance is trying to change that, but they need to do a LOT better than bringing in a sprinkler factory and a paper bag plant. There are lots of small businesses there, however, and that helps a bit.
Lubbock is not really on the radar for what growth experts call the "creative class" -- people who come up with innovative ideas and new ways of doing things. Austin and Portland are magnets for these kinds of people, and they are the key to growing companies and population.
Technology, bioscience, and alternative energy are the big drivers of the new economy now and Lubbock missed the boat in that respect. (wind power may be an exception to this, but other cities are already ahead) That's why there's new 600+ foot tall condo towers sprouting in downtown Austin and 1000-employee solar panel factories opening up here in Oregon. I left Lubbock after college because there are essentially no technology jobs there.

Downtown: Lubbock's downtown is arguably the ugliest most dilapidated downtown of any city its size in the country. It is so empty that the traffic lights actually flash yellow/red on the weekends. There has got to be a catalyst to bring people downtown. I know there is some re-development effort underway, but these efforts have come and gone over the past 50 years, and there's little to show for it. The tallest building in the city was built in 1955. The Depot District is the one bright spot, but it is relatively small. And you can't build new office towers until the existing vacant space is used up, thereby driving up Class A rental rates.
Lubbock needs a better public transportation system - the bus system is mediocre at best. Light rail would be nice, but the population density is nowhere near high enough to justify this. Too much sprawl. Lubbock is also not bicycle-friendly - there are few bike lanes and the car-centric population is not biker-aware. Lubbock's airport is nice for it's size, but the service is atrocious. 90% of all flights are to either Dallas or Houston.
Outdoor recreation - there are no rivers, lakes, or mountains near Lubbock (and no, the sewage pit that is Buffalo Springs Lake does not count ). These things drive people to move to a city. Where I live I can be at the Pacific coast, a huge river for wind-surfing, or several ski resorts, all within a 1.5 hour drive.
Location: Case44 is being a major optimist. I contend Lubbock's location works against it. It is not near anything significant, it is hard to get to by auto. The lack of a major interstate is a big negative (I27 is just a spoke off of I40). Maybe this will drive the need for distribution warehouses, but again, those types of jobs are nothing to write home about.

So, by 2020 I see Lubbock's metro population at around 300K-325K. There is simply nothing on the horizon to drive it past that. I think a lot of the development that has occurred recently (Marsha Sharp freeway, new hotel across from Tech) is simply Lubbock playing catch-up to other cities its size, not Lubbock pulling ahead. I foresee some improvements in downtown -- maybe some small new parks, a couple of condo buildings, etc, but nothing anywhere near as vibrant as Portland's downtown.

[case44]

One more thing I needed to point out if I haven't already. There will be more and more technology jobs available, thanks to the Reese Technology Center, which is drawing new technological and research jobs. It's on the site of the old Air Force Base, but it has a solid future.

[shoe01]

There are 10,000 ft mountains within 2.5 hours of Lubbock, something a lot of cities can't say. Also, Lake Alan Henry off 84 near Post looks pretty substantial in aerial photographs.