Could Texas go BLUE? (Clint, Rice: 2010, condo, living in)

[ocean2026]

Ryneone - go to any of the gallup or rasmussen polls and check the demographic breakdown tabs. If you can't find them real clear politics has them archived. Its a good site with articles as well.

No not all Republicans are idiots - lol - I voted in the last two GOP primaries ( but never for Bush). There are many Republicans who are highly educated and high income- who vote based on the lowest taxes possible. The GOP lost quite a few of them this year as Bush's budgets and budget deficits shattered all Democratic records. Overall however, those with grad school education - vote Democratic. Many years ago it was different. The GOP needs to increase its base from the rednecks ( who loved Palin) and to get people like me who want the government out of our lives and out of our pocketbooks.

[Bowie]

Originally Posted by ryneone

Do the math your premise of the metro's are blue is wrong.

For Example Houston Metro

Harris County Obama by 18,468
Fort Bend County McCain By 4,710
Montgomery County McCain by 83,012
Waller County McCain by 1,131
Austin County McCain by 5,958
Chambers County McCain by 6,781
Liberty County McCain by 9,437
Brazoria County McCain by 30,983
San Jacinto County McCain by 3,430

So McCain won the metro area by 126,974 votes!

But what's the trend? What was the margin of victory in each county in '00 and '04, compared to '08? That says more about what they can expect in '10 and '12.

[teatime]

Originally Posted by Bowie

But what's the trend? What was the margin of victory in each county in '00 and '04, compared to '08? That says more about what they can expect in '10 and '12.

No, you'd need to go farther back. The '00 and '04 elections had a TEXAN as a presidential candidate. That would skew any perceived trend and not give an accurate assessment. Unless, of course, you expect a Texan to run for the Presidency in '12.

[ocean2026]

Teatime is correct, not only because a Texan is more likely to vote for a Texan, but that a dummy is more likely to vote for someone they can relate to! LOL Think about it - if Bush has 25% approval rating and one took out the redneck populations of Texas, Alabama, Ark, Louisiana, Mississippi ec his approval rating among the rest of the country would be maybe 10%?

[ryneone]

Originally Posted by teatime

No, you'd need to go farther back. The '00 and '04 elections had a TEXAN as a presidential candidate. That would skew any perceived trend and not give an accurate assessment. Unless, of course, you expect a Texan to run for the Presidency in '12.

Not only that but trends go back and forth. This was a democrats best chance to win in three elections and he did not come even close.

[ryneone]

Originally Posted by ocean2026

Ryneone - go to any of the gallup or rasmussen polls and check the demographic breakdown tabs. If you can't find them real clear politics has them archived. Its a good site with articles as well.

No not all Republicans are idiots - lol - I voted in the last two GOP primaries ( but never for Bush). There are many Republicans who are highly educated and high income- who vote based on the lowest taxes possible. The GOP lost quite a few of them this year as Bush's budgets and budget deficits shattered all Democratic records. Overall however, those with grad school education - vote Democratic. Many years ago it was different. The GOP needs to increase its base from the rednecks ( who loved Palin) and to get people like me who want the government out of our lives and out of our pocketbooks.

But you are missing the point the site I cited was for Texas. We are talking about Texas going blue not the rest of the country. The Real Clear Politics numbers are national.

[Rathagos]

Originally Posted by ocean2026

A. It had better educated voters. Those who attended grad school in the last two elections, went Blue overwhelmingly . Texans who did not finish high school RED

B. if the population were more mobile and people actually went out and saw the world. Counties where people are born- live and die such as those in the Panhandle went for Bush and MCcain by huge numbers - Ochiltree - Roberts both had 92% or more BLUE. Not a diverse culture

Independents also tend to be better educated, in fact they are the most educated of the bunch.

Uh... Don't want to call these assumptions "dumb" Ocean, but there's other demographics you aren't discussing. Is it possible that the "educated" voters you speak of voted for Obama because of the age group they are in instead educational level? There is a statistic I don't have readily available that shows the predominance of people under 25 voted for Obama. So, it's not a college educated thing necessarily. Remember the adage: People enter the work force as democrats and retire as republicans. There's a reason for that adage to be around so long!

Second, after almost 21 years in the Navy, having visited nearly 30 countries, and lived in 4 (other than the U.S.), I would think I'm as well traveled as many (if not most). And as an Independent (registered Republican but vote on issues), I was a heartbeat away from voting McCain. My issue was his choice in choosing Palin over Romney.

Although you bring up valid points, I would caution you in selling them as sole facts. Especially when other factors could be just as germane in a given demographic.

[Rathagos]

Originally Posted by ocean2026

Teatime is correct, not only because a Texan is more likely to vote for a Texan, but that a dummy is more likely to vote for someone they can relate to! LOL Think about it - if Bush has 25% approval rating and one took out the redneck populations of Texas, Alabama, Ark, Louisiana, Mississippi ec his approval rating among the rest of the country would be maybe 10%?

Spoken through the eyes of an -----. Only someone with the wisdom of a five year old would have voted Bush out of office in '04. It was not only the fact that we were in a middle of a war, but we were in the middle of a shifting of philosophy within that war. Switching completely to someone who didn't agree with the war and definitely didn't understand how to fight one would have not only lost the war, but brought our Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines home in far greater number of body bags.

Whether you agreed with the war or not was moot. It was already on. So, we had a choice, try our best to fix what we messed up there with as few casualties (on our side) as possible, or pack it up after stirring the hornets nest, and bury our heads in the sand here pretending it never happened. Waiting for them to take the fight back to our shores. Kerry may have been a good choice even for this election... but not at that sensitive time.

And since you like the "birds of a feather" analogy... Congress has even a lower approval rating than Bush. Yet they got voted back in in droves. What does that say about their constituency?!?! That's what I thought.

[ocean2026]

Rat - you've heard polls show most can't even name their congressmen- they need someone to lash out at and an anonymous congress suits fine. Aside from that think about what you're saying - if Congress only has 13 or so percent approval notice that there is not one of the 435 districts where the incumbent didn't get 40% - maybe the dem (Lampson) who got in temporarily when DeLay was indicted. Hell even Ted Stevens got 47% - and he has 7 convictions and multiple ethics violations.
People know what Bush did and if they read his own 9-11 commission report and Libby's 22 page indictment - did you read these Rat? they would know how Bush mislead the public. People will say they hate congress - but of course their congressman all 435 are ok ( even in a dem year probably 85% of the GOP incumbents won).

As for the young groups being educated - Im not sure however many older people have graduate degrees in fact a phd is so annoying most are well past the 18-25 age group before they first acheive one.

If you want another link to low education = Bush - look at the literacy rates of Bush's strongest areas - TX LA AR MS AL.. You can sometimes go into the national polls and get tabs by region. Unfortunately you might have to be a subscriber - for that level data. I've seen them as secondary sources and yes high school dropouts in Texas LOVED BUSH.

[HookTheBrotherUp]

Originally Posted by ryneone

...Black voters were stunningly united in their support for Sen. Barack Obama, bidding to become the nation's first black president — perhaps only 1 percent of blacks supported McCain. Hispanics, who constituted a bigger bloc of the Texas electorate...

There has obviously been some editing going on since I could not find who originally posted the quote you had ryneone, but it is interesting how people say that 'Black voters were stunningly united...'. If/when whites do that, it will be considered to be racist, not united.