W.H.O. raises to "phase 6" however that does not mean severity has increased, it only means the virus is
spreading geographically.
From the W.H.O. press briefings here,
WHO | Influenza A(H1N1) press briefings
http://www.who.int/entity/mediacentr...t_20090609.pdf
..quote..
For example, one of the most basic questions that has come up is simply “What is a
pandemic?” So here let me review what we are seeing and why we consider this situation
which is potentially evolving into a pandemic. What we are seeing right now is the
emergence of a new influenza virus that has not been previously known to infect people.
What that means is that most people in the world really have very little background
immunity to such a virus. We are seeing that this virus is spreading rapidly around the
world, again the characteristics of previous pandemic viruses, and we are also seeing that
the disease patterns caused by this virus are not what we see for seasonal influenza.
For example, in the northern hemisphere we have seen a great deal of activity occurring in
the summer months, and we also have seen that most of the infections are occurring in
younger people with the serious complications also occurring in the younger people. Again
these are patterns which are not what we see with normal seasonal influenza. When you put
all of these things together, what it really suggests is that we are in a situation which is
really moving towards more or less a pandemic type of situation. The pandemic really
refers to the fact that we are seeing the geographical spread of a virus that is causing this
disease.
The second question that has come up is about the name of the virus. We know that the
situation has been confusing. For example, right now, we know that there are H1N1 viruses
which have been circulating in people for a number of years. This is a new H1N1 virus.
And we also know that there had been H1N1 viruses which had been circulating in swine or
in pigs for many years. And this has really led to a complicated situation of what you call a
new virus. One of the primary concerns and one of the difficulties of naming such a new
virus is to avoid adverse effects, or stigma associated with a virus name, especially if it
causes some unwanted effects in either some sector or in some groups of people.
For example, we have seen in association with this outbreak concerns about food, concerns
about pigs, which for our practical purposes are not warranted. Food has been perfectly safe,
pork meat has not posed a danger for people, yet there has been a fair amount of anxiety
associated with the virus originating in pigs and so to call this a swine flu virus is
something that is really has a lot of potential for causing greater anxiety associated with
eating pork or with these animals which is unwarranted. We have also seen that in past
pandemics, the naming of viruses associated with geographical locations can often lead to a
stigma and erroneous association that somehow the virus is more dangerous in an area, or
perhaps associated with an area. This can manifest itself by travel restrictions or travel
concerns that may not be warranted. And so again, in approaching the whole issue of
naming the virus, these are some of the issues with which many people – not just WHO –
but many people in scientific societies and different groups have been wrestling with.
[...]
For example, there is work that is being undertaken right now so people understand really
what does a pandemic mean, what does going to Phase 6 mean? Does this mean that we are
seeing something really severe change? Does this mean that there is a need for drastic
actions to be taken? And here I want to point out that by going to Phase 6, what this would
mean is that spread of the virus has continued and that activity has become established in at
least two regions of the world. It does not mean that the severity of the situation has
increased and that people are getting seriously sick at higher numbers or higher rates than
they are right now.
This is a very important point for countries to understand, for the media to understand, even
if it is a little bit paradoxical. You would think that by going up scale would mean that the
level of concern should go up, but really what the going up a scale would mean is that we
are seeing greater spread of the virus. We are working with different groups to make sure
these kinds of messages are understood and the difference between severity and
geographical spread is understood. As I discussed last week, right at this time, we
considered the situation and the impact on countries to be relatively moderate, and this is
again a critical point. If there are some uncertainties, I hope you come back with questions
on this.
..end quote..
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"phase 6"
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