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Old 01-03-2010, 11:35 AM
 
11 posts, read 16,844 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasReb View Post
Very good post and analysis! Naturally, I am hoping the odds you offer trun out to the be the final 20%...but you did a great job in articulating your opinion on the potential outcomes, and why! Rep point to you!
I think he most likely got his information from this ...

By Randy Kennedy
December 27, 2009


Alabama is going to beat Texas in the BCS title game to claim the school's first national championship since 1992. You can take that prediction to the bank -- at least 65.2 percent of the time.

the folks at Accuscore have taken a more scientific approach to handicapping the game.

The Web site (http://www.accuscore.com) uses a computer simulator to "play" games more than 10,000 times before they are actually kicked off. What the computer spit out concerning the Texas-Alabama matchup is a possible blowout for the Crimson Tide.

The average final score of all the simulated games, according to accuscore.com, was 24.6-18.6 in favor of Alabama. According to the Web site, Alabama will win this matchup of undefeated teams 65.2 percent of the time.

Perhaps more interesting is the projection that Alabama will win in a blowout (10 points or more) 41 percent of time. The Tide won close (by less than 5 points) in 13 percent of the simulated games, while the Longhorns won in a blowout 16 percent of the time and won a close game 11 percent of the time.


If the Accuscore computer is to be believed, Greg McElroy will outplay Colt McCoy in a battle of former Texas high school football stars. The computer expects McElroy to throw for 161 yards while compiling a quarterback rating of 115.3, while McCoy is expected to throw for 170 yards with a passer rating of only 107.3.

Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram is projected to run for 91 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, while Julio Jones is expected to have more receiving yards than Shipley. If you're wondering if the Accuscore folks and their computer have any more credibility than your average "longtime listener, first-time caller" then take a look at the early returns from the bowl season.

The Web site correctly projected the winner in three of the first four bowl games this season, including picking underdog BYU to beat Oregon State.Anyone participating in a bowl picks contest knows that 3-1 at the start of this unpredictable bowl season is better than good.


ROLL TIDE
Bamanut
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Old 01-03-2010, 10:14 PM
 
Location: I-35
1,806 posts, read 4,293,428 times
Reputation: 747
Alabama has been in pasadena since last week is this true.
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:48 AM
 
11 posts, read 16,844 times
Reputation: 21
Alabama arrived there Friday
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Old 01-04-2010, 10:00 AM
 
Location: OKIE-Ville
5,543 posts, read 9,447,245 times
Reputation: 3296
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bamanut View Post
I think he most likely got his information from this ...

By Randy Kennedy
December 27, 2009


Alabama is going to beat Texas in the BCS title game to claim the school's first national championship since 1992. You can take that prediction to the bank -- at least 65.2 percent of the time.

the folks at Accuscore have taken a more scientific approach to handicapping the game.

The Web site (http://www.accuscore.com) uses a computer simulator to "play" games more than 10,000 times before they are actually kicked off. What the computer spit out concerning the Texas-Alabama matchup is a possible blowout for the Crimson Tide.

The average final score of all the simulated games, according to accuscore.com, was 24.6-18.6 in favor of Alabama. According to the Web site, Alabama will win this matchup of undefeated teams 65.2 percent of the time.

Perhaps more interesting is the projection that Alabama will win in a blowout (10 points or more) 41 percent of time. The Tide won close (by less than 5 points) in 13 percent of the simulated games, while the Longhorns won in a blowout 16 percent of the time and won a close game 11 percent of the time.


If the Accuscore computer is to be believed, Greg McElroy will outplay Colt McCoy in a battle of former Texas high school football stars. The computer expects McElroy to throw for 161 yards while compiling a quarterback rating of 115.3, while McCoy is expected to throw for 170 yards with a passer rating of only 107.3.

Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram is projected to run for 91 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, while Julio Jones is expected to have more receiving yards than Shipley. If you're wondering if the Accuscore folks and their computer have any more credibility than your average "longtime listener, first-time caller" then take a look at the early returns from the bowl season.

The Web site correctly projected the winner in three of the first four bowl games this season, including picking underdog BYU to beat Oregon State.Anyone participating in a bowl picks contest knows that 3-1 at the start of this unpredictable bowl season is better than good.


ROLL TIDE
Bamanut
Well, I think you can throw all that handicapping out the door with the title game.

I can guarantee you (and as a Sooner fan this pains me to admit it) that Mack Brown is an excellent "Big Game" coach....he's won most of 'em...Bob Stoops used to beat up on Brown a little bit in the Red River Shootout, but MBrown has definitely turned the tide in that series.

Also, don't forget about Muschamp; he is one of the premier D-Coordinators in all of college football. He'll have a good scheme and TDs will not come easy to Bama, unless the Horns let down for some reason, which I do not see happening.

I think it could be a very close, low scoring game.

Even this SoonerFan wants the Horns to pull one out for the Big XII South! You will NOT catch me throwin' the Horns up, however. ;-) hahaha!
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Old 01-04-2010, 07:33 PM
 
11 posts, read 16,844 times
Reputation: 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bass&Catfish2008 View Post
Well, I think you can throw all that handicapping out the door with the title game.

I can guarantee you (and as a Sooner fan this pains me to admit it) that Mack Brown is an excellent "Big Game" coach....he's won most of 'em...Bob Stoops used to beat up on Brown a little bit in the Red River Shootout, but MBrown has definitely turned the tide in that series.

Also, don't forget about Muschamp; he is one of the premier D-Coordinators in all of college football. He'll have a good scheme and TDs will not come easy to Bama, unless the Horns let down for some reason, which I do not see happening.

I think it could be a very close, low scoring game.

Even this SoonerFan wants the Horns to pull one out for the Big XII South! You will NOT catch me throwin' the Horns up, however. ;-) hahaha!
I would have to agree that stats in a game like this really dont mean much ...Florida was a big favorite to beat Bama this year and we all know what happend in that game ...I think Txs was a big favorite agenst Neb. and almost got beat ...this should be a great game ...two classy schools with a ton of tradition ...classy coach's ...and two very good football teams ...no matter who wins I just hope both teams play their best (Bama a lil better) and no one gets hurt ..

ROLL TIDE
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Old 01-05-2010, 01:19 AM
 
Location: OKIE-Ville
5,543 posts, read 9,447,245 times
Reputation: 3296
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bamanut View Post
I would have to agree that stats in a game like this really dont mean much ...Florida was a big favorite to beat Bama this year and we all know what happend in that game ...I think Txs was a big favorite agenst Neb. and almost got beat ...this should be a great game ...two classy schools with a ton of tradition ...classy coach's ...and two very good football teams ...no matter who wins I just hope both teams play their best (Bama a lil better) and no one gets hurt ..

ROLL TIDE
Great post Bamanut.
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Old 01-06-2010, 10:25 AM
 
Location: Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex
1,298 posts, read 4,272,970 times
Reputation: 360
Much as I like Texas I'm afraid it's gonna be Alabama. 45-35
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Old 01-06-2010, 10:35 AM
 
11 posts, read 16,844 times
Reputation: 21
personally i think alabama should be considered the underdog ...texas has more current experience playing in a game like this ...they did not play well in their last game so for the last 30 days they have been motivated to improve everyday while bama most likely played thier best game of the year agenst fla. And for the last 30 days have had to deal with just trying to remain consistant ...texas is a much larger university then alabama..has a much larger mascot ..from a much larger state ...we on the other hand are just a small hick school from a backwards suthern state..who just stumbled into this game by chance ...we will be lucky if we can just keep it close in the first half ....but you never know bama may get lucky :>)

roll tide

Last edited by Bamanut; 01-06-2010 at 12:03 PM..
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Old 01-06-2010, 11:38 AM
 
10,130 posts, read 19,800,906 times
Reputation: 5815
As a horn fan, I just can't wait til tomorrow's game! I'm so excited it hurts.

I'm not going to make a score prediction, but I will say this... anyone who thinks one of these teams is way better than the other is misguided, probably just buying into the ESPN hype. These are two well matched teams. Alabama may have the overall team edge, because of the competition they've faced, but I think Texas has more NFL superstar talent. Whether that will mean anything is yet to be seen, but I guarantee we will see a better game than pretty much all the BCS bowls this year (as it should be). Texas is playing for the 2008 championship as well as the 2009 one, as they missed out on 2008 by a few BCS votes/computers and a last-second grab by Michael Crabtree.

I do kind of agree that Bama is the underdog. They have never beaten Texas on the football field. Texas also has the location advantage, having this be their 3rd appearance in Pasadena in the past 6 years. Alabama has also lost twice as many games in the past 2 seasons as Texas (2).
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Old 01-06-2010, 12:40 PM
 
16,087 posts, read 41,022,648 times
Reputation: 6374
Great story/video on Sergio Kindle, who went to my high school (Dallas Woodrow):

ESPN's Three-Hankie Piece About UT's Kindle and the Winters

ESPN's Heartbreaking Piece About Woodrow Wilson's Sergio Kindle and the Winters - Dallas News - Unfair Park
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