Question about Hurricanes

[Aggie82]

I'm no hurricane expert, but I did live through several plus quite a few tropical storms in the years I grew up in the Bluff.

The Bluff can have quite a bit of water, but I never saw flooding more than a few feet and only in low-lying areas. Hurricane Beulah (1967) had about the biggest flooding I recall. The then FB Primary School had a courtyard that got up about 2 feet. I was in second grade back then.

There was quite alot of damage in Hurricane Celia (1970), but our house in the Bluff was relatively unscathed. We waited out the storm at TM HS, and the damage out there was almost horrific. The Bluff wasn't as bad, but the NAS got hit pretty bad.

The Bluff has done well in hurricanes, but it's been a long time since they've been struck with one.

[tlw]

How bout the Rockport/Fulton area?

[Poltracker]

Check out this map: http://www.cctexas.com/images/g8/Cat%205%20Slosh.jpg
Also do an internet search for storm surge maps (also called slosh maps) for the corpus and padre island areas.

[AnthonySA]

As much as I hate to say it or think it, I have a bad feeling about Dean and the Texas coast.

The same upper level setup that has brought Erin ashore will be similar next week as Dean works his way through the Carribean. The theory of choice right now is that Erin will reinforce a weakness in our atmosphere all the way up through North Texas leaving the ridge over the Southeastern US and over the Western US. There is a trough in the southwestern gulf of mexico that would push anything to the north. Thus after a possible Yucatan or Passage strike, Texas and possibly even Northern Mexico stands the highest chance of a powerful Dean landfall. You may question my reasoning as of right now on why I think Dean will be powerful -- and Erin not.

Erin formed with a lot of convective instability and flirted with wind shear up to the tonight where we are seeign steady intensification. This intensification process however is starting up a bit too late as it's already too close to land.

Dean however is already very organized and will likely reach hurricane status, if it hasnt already, by the 5AM AST update. With nothing but favorable conditions ahead, we really need to keep a close eye on Dean -- and hope that my current presumptions are off.

[TexasNick]

I got bad feeling about this one too. My folks live in Brownsville--the target for this one. Tell ya one thing though, Gov. Perry is ON THIS ONE LIKE A HAWK. He's sending everything and anything down to South Texas and i'm already seeing tons of helicopters flying out from here (SA) down there. We'll be ready, this time.

[Poltracker]

Evacuations could start as early as late Monday or Tuesday. It is at least some relief that Dean is smaller (diameter) than say Rita or Katrina but that could change. It will still be at least a 4 when it hits. All the Gulf EOCs are on alert right now.

[AnthonySA]

The diameter of Dean right now is no indication of the diameter Dean would be if he were in the Gulf of Mexico. The dynamics of where he's at now are not the same in the GOM.

[TexasNick]

Rumor has it that Dean has let out a "howard dean"-like yell before it heads towards straight to Texas. YyyyeaaaaaaaaaaahH!!

[teatime]

LOL Texas Nick.

I, too, have a feeling that Dean has set its sights on the South Texas coast. They're saying there isn't much to take it off its current track and its steaming right along.

I can't even imagine the devastation if a Cat. 4 hits Brownsville. When I was living there and Katrina hit NOLA, local meteorologists did an analysis on what would happen if it hit Brownsville. The similarities were uncanny. Most of Brownsville is in a flood plain and the city lies maybe 50 feet above sea level, if that. And, of course, there's rampant poverty and severely substandard housing. I hope the folks get out of Dodge if the track remains unchanged.

[ruggedindividual]

There's no worry of storm surge in Portland. It sits pretty high up from the water. Most of the residential area of the city is further back from shore anyway.

But we may find out in about a week how true that statement is...