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Old 09-26-2012, 04:44 PM
 
Location: Nob Hill, San Francisco, CA
2,346 posts, read 3,381,148 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DynamoLA View Post
Hey scrantiX! Cool thread, as I'm an aviation nut.

Some slight corrections/additions to your LAX list:
  • There are actually two separate LAN airlines flying to LAX: LAN Chile and LAN Peru
  • Add Avianca (Colombia)
  • Add LACSA (El Salvador and Costa Rica)
  • There are two separate int'l Virgin branded carriers serving LAX: Virgin Australia and Virgin Atlantic. While they both have a Virgin "brand" they are two separate carriers.
  • See for reference: LAX Airlines
So in total there are 45 different foreign flag carriers serving the LA area (after Interjet begins SNA service on Oct. 11th).
I didn't know what to do with the LAN's or the international Virgin carriers. What I was able to distinguish was that Virgin America is just a US flag carrier based here in California and the others were the international brands based outside of the US. I mistakingly counted the LAN's and Virgin's as one flag carrier for both NYC and LA (LAN for Miami too) because they seemed to have been the same company just different international brands. Didn't know how to work with those LOL.

I appreciate the correction!
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Old 09-26-2012, 04:47 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
1,366 posts, read 1,360,401 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justme02 View Post
I dont know what your girlfriend does, but she isnt feeding you good data. I work with data from traffic flows constantly so I feel quite confident in what Im saying.

Atlanta-Europe is larger than Dallas-Europe, but not by 160k passengers. The actual number varies from 80k-100k per year. Houston-Europe is slightly larger than Atlanta-Europe but is heavily biased toward the UK and Amsterdam. Houston-Amsterdam is the highest yielding local market to Europe from all the Southern states.

When did I say the difference in passengers from Atlanta-Europe vs. Dallas-Europe was majority into the Paris market? Europe is a lot larger than Paris. American and Air France duked it out in the Paris-Dallas market for a bit knowing only one of them would make it in that market. In the end, the market was more important for American than it was for Air France. Even if the AA hub left Dallas, Dallas-Paris is large enough for a carrier to fly especially when considering connections at the Paris end.

Atlanta could support a flight to Paris regardless especially when considering connections on the Paris end of the flight. Period. Thats the argument Ive been making the whole time.

You are wrong. Maybe you are too young to remember but Delta had a sizable hub in Dallas. When Delta pulled up stakes in Dallas, Air France was left to fend for themselves and rely totaly on Dallas/Ft. Worth O&D and the O&D was not enough to sustain a flight. It would be the same for Atlanta if Delta was operating flights to Paris and Air France had to rely solely on O&D in Atlanta..For you to compare KLM in Houston to Air France in ATL is not a good barometer. KLM in Houston is sustainable due to high yield flights relative to the oil industry which the Dutch are big players in. Air France flights to Atlanta are low yield flights and are only sustainable due to domestic feed from Delta.
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Old 09-26-2012, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Glendale, CA
1,298 posts, read 2,111,408 times
Reputation: 1374
Quote:
Originally Posted by scrantiX View Post
I didn't know what to do with the LAN's or the international Virgin carriers. What I was able to distinguish was that Virgin America is just a US flag carrier based here in California and the others were the international brands based outside of the US. I mistakingly counted the LAN's and Virgin's as one flag carrier for both NYC and LA (LAN for Miami too) because they seemed to have been the same company just different international brands. Didn't know how to work with those LOL.

I appreciate the correction!
Yeah, the ownership issues with airlines are really tricky (I work in the industry), mostly because governments, including the US, have restrictions on foreign ownership.

Virgin Australia, Virgin Atlantic, and Virgin America are all completely separate airlines under the Virgin "brand". As a trivia side note: LAX is the only airport in the world where all three Virgin brands operate.

In South America, LAN has established separate airlines in a variety of countries, so there is LAN Chile, LAN Peru, LAN Argentina, LAN Ecuador, and the newest LAN - LAN Colombia.

In addition you have airlines that are completely different brands but owned by the same company. For instance Lufthansa completely owns Swiss, Austrian, and SN Brussels. Likewise British Airways and Iberia are owned by the same company, as are Air France and KLM.

Probably getting into too much detail now, but obviously I am a geek!
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Old 09-26-2012, 05:03 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
1,366 posts, read 1,360,401 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DynamoLA View Post
Yeah, the ownership issues with airlines are really tricky (I work in the industry), mostly because governments, including the US, have restrictions on foreign ownership.

Virgin Australia, Virgin Atlantic, and Virgin America are all completely separate airlines under the Virgin "brand". As a trivia side note: LAX is the only airport in the world where all three Virgin brands operate.

In South America, LAN has established separate airlines in a variety of countries, so there is LAN Chile, LAN Peru, LAN Argentina, LAN Ecuador, and the newest LAN - LAN Colombia.

In addition you have airlines that are completely different brands but owned by the same company. For instance Lufthansa completely owns Swiss, Austrian, and SN Brussels. Likewise British Airways and Iberia are owned by the same company, as are Air France and KLM.

Probably getting into too much detail now, but obviously I am a geek!
I wonder if Virgin Blue (Australia) will serve SFO. After Qantas left, United is the sole carrier offering SFO-SYD nonstops.
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Old 09-26-2012, 05:07 PM
 
Location: Glendale, CA
1,298 posts, read 2,111,408 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fastphilly View Post
I wonder if Virgin Blue (Australia) will serve SFO. After Qantas left, United is the sole carrier offering SFO-SYD nonstops.
I think it is very likely, and I think it will be sooner rather than later. It's too large of a market with too high of fares to be left to one carrier.

I doubt Qantas will be back any time soon since they are retrenching all of their international flying to Oneworld hubs as well as their new hook-up with Emirates.
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Old 09-26-2012, 05:12 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
1,366 posts, read 1,360,401 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DynamoLA View Post
I think it is very likely, and I think it will be sooner rather than later. It's too large of a market with too high of fares to be left to one carrier.

I doubt Qantas will be back any time soon since they are retrenching all of their international flying to Oneworld hubs as well as their new hook-up with Emirates.
That was unfortunate when Qantas left SFO for DFW. Qantas has been very fickle over the decades when it comes to SFO service. Perhaps when Qantas invests in the 787 they might re-start service to SFO, but if Virgin comes in first then I think any chance of seeing a Qantas tail in SFO will be all but lost.
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Old 09-26-2012, 06:13 PM
 
Location: Willowbend/Houston
13,403 posts, read 21,192,209 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fastphilly View Post
You are wrong. Maybe you are too young to remember but Delta had a sizable hub in Dallas. When Delta pulled up stakes in Dallas, Air France was left to fend for themselves and rely totaly on Dallas/Ft. Worth O&D and the O&D was not enough to sustain a flight. It would be the same for Atlanta if Delta was operating flights to Paris and Air France had to rely solely on O&D in Atlanta..For you to compare KLM in Houston to Air France in ATL is not a good barometer. KLM in Houston is sustainable due to high yield flights relative to the oil industry which the Dutch are big players in. Air France flights to Atlanta are low yield flights and are only sustainable due to domestic feed from Delta.
You keep misinterpreting everything I write. Never once did I compare Atlanta-Paris with Houston-Amsterdam and Im mystified that you somehow got that from my post. Ill try one more time:

Yes, I remember the Delta hub quite well. However, you are not comparing apples to apples.

When Delta had a hub at DFW, Air France and American both flew DFW-Paris. Both the airlines were competing and did not have cooperation of any kind beyond the usual interline and ticketing agreements. The Dallas-Paris market is not large enough to support two carriers that do not cooperate, but is large enough to support one. Therefore it boiled down to who the market was most important to. Air France know that Delta was second fiddle in Dallas to American and knew the the hub was bleeding money from every end. Therefore they pulled it knowing they could not compete with American who was doing very well on the route.

At present day Atlanta, Air France and Delta are very close partners. You dont have two carriers competing for the market, but rather two carriers with a joint venture balancing each other out. If Delta closed up their hub, the local market does not go away but there is no other carrier that could fly Atlanta to Paris and (as I keep repeating) when considering connections on the Paris end, service to Atlanta is very, very easy to support. The local market is 120 passengers per day by itself. When you throw in connections in Paris to other destinations in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, it would be extremely easy to profitably fill a plane with 200 seats.

Now, let me try to get this through another way. My job focuses on Southern Air markets so Im going to use specific numbers. Ill use Atlanta and Dallas for my example since weve been talking about them:

In both markets, the largest three European markets are London, Frankfurt, and Paris. Atlanta-London is about 250 PDEW and Dallas-London is about 210 PDEW. Atlanta-Paris is about 120 PDEW and Dallas Paris is about 105 PDEW. Atlanta-Frankfurt is about 95 PDEW and Dallas-Frankfurt is about 100 PDEW.

Atlanta has roughly 1370 passengers a day to Europe. Dallas has about 1175 passengers a day to Europe. For beyond connections, Dallas to the Indian subcontinent and Middle East is about 800 passengers per day and Atlanta to the Indian subcontinent and Middle East is about 500 passengers per day. Ill leave Africa out.

If no hubs existed in Atlanta or Dallas yet the local market is the same size, HOW DO YOU SUPPOSE WE SERVE THESE LOCAL MARKET? We 1150-1400 passengers in these markets that need to travel to Europe. How can you not see that it makes most sense to route them through hubs that require the least connections?

With hubs in London, Paris, and Frankfurt, flights from these markets can be supported. Period. Ill grant you beyond that, I cant make an argument for either.
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Old 09-26-2012, 06:21 PM
 
Location: Greater Boston
342 posts, read 482,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scrantiX View Post
Do you have any future knowledge of international services being added in the near future to any of the 16 markets of this thread? Or any foreign interest in these markets?

Like I mentioned before, I consider myself an airport aficionado and would always love to know more about them. To me, as a person, having the ability to go to any corner of the world because the service is supported by your city's own airport is a privilege IMO.
I know that United airlines is adding a flight from denver to Tokyo soon.
japan airlines is probably going to add miami as well with the 787 in the next few years.
Korean air has been looking at service to Philadelphia.
China eastern has applied for and been awarded the rights to fly from Boston to Beijing.
Emirates is probably going to add Boston and Chicago in the next year.
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Old 09-26-2012, 06:23 PM
 
3,722 posts, read 3,878,758 times
Reputation: 2774
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Isnt the Air France ATL flight on Delta equipment. Conversly the Delta Paris flight from Philly uses Air France Equipment. Not sure how that works - the code share is different for flights depending on the carrier you book the flight through
They have a joint venture, so it doesn't matter who flies the route. The costs are shared.



ATL benefits from being the only airport within a 3 hour drive from Atlanta that has at least decent air service. Look at Philadelphia for example. That market sees some good leakage to Newark.
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Old 09-26-2012, 06:26 PM
 
3,722 posts, read 3,878,758 times
Reputation: 2774
Quote:
Originally Posted by deh74 View Post
I know that United airlines is adding a flight from denver to Tokyo soon.
japan airlines is probably going to add miami as well with the 787 in the next few years.
Korean air has been looking at service to Philadelphia.
China eastern has applied for and been awarded the rights to fly from Boston to Beijing.
Emirates is probably going to add Boston and Chicago in the next year.
Boston is not going to see non-stop service to China within the next 2-3 years. Some airlines have the habit of applying for and holding the authorities for routes and never flying them.

I think it's a safe assumption that by 2015, Emirates will have service to Boston, Miami, Atlanta, Chicago and maybe Detroit. They're expanding like crazy.
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