Hawaii Airfares (estate, airlines, price, routes)

[BLAZER PROPHET]

They've jumped about 40% recently. We're planning on a Kauai trip next August. My thinking is that when the current lower gas prices make it to the jet fuel, prices will go down in about 3-4 months.

Any thoughts?

[allforcats]

That's very possible, Blazer. However, in the past month and a half many airlines have reduced their number of planes, thus reducing their number of flights. And I just heard on the news tonight that after the holidays, it is anticipated that severe reductions will be made by all the airlines in all their routes and in the number of planes in use.

Moral of the story: fewer seats in fewer aircraft on fewer routes.

Demand has dropped in the past six months, especially in the past month. The general economic collapse is expected to continue for a year or two, no matter how fast the Obama administration can change the picture. A million people have lost their jobs so far this year and another 500,000 are expected to lose their jobs by the end of this year. That'x a massive amount of spending power disappearing.

So ---- my forecast would be that after January 5th (end of the holiday travel season) ticket prices will remain the same for a month or two and then go up. Between now and then, I'd watch the commodities market to see how the price of oil is moving, and watch daily prices on the internet.

But from somone who has successfully invested in stock markets and real estate markets, I assure you that it's impossible to "catch the bottom" and get the lowest price by anything but sheer coincidence. If you're comfortable with a price, I'd buy the tickets, be glad I can afford to spend money on that, and then turn my attention to other things. Enjoy the trip!

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Originally Posted by allforcats

That's very possible, Blazer. However, in the past month and a half many airlines have reduced their number of planes, thus reducing their number of flights. And I just heard on the news tonight that after the holidays, it is anticipated that severe reductions will be made by all the airlines in all their routes and in the number of planes in use.

Moral of the story: fewer seats in fewer aircraft on fewer routes.

Demand has dropped in the past six months, especially in the past month. The general economic collapse is expected to continue for a year or two, no matter how fast the Obama administration can change the picture. A million people have lost their jobs so far this year and another 500,000 are expected to lose their jobs by the end of this year. That'x a massive amount of spending power disappearing.

So ---- my forecast would be that after January 5th (end of the holiday travel season) ticket prices will remain the same for a month or two and then go up. Between now and then, I'd watch the commodities market to see how the price of oil is moving, and watch daily prices on the internet.

But from somone who has successfully invested in stock markets and real estate markets, I assure you that it's impossible to "catch the bottom" and get the lowest price by anything but sheer coincidence. If you're comfortable with a price, I'd buy the tickets, be glad I can afford to spend money on that, and then turn my attention to other things. Enjoy the trip!

Very good thoughts. Thanks!