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Louisiana has been #1 in murder rates since 1989. Coincidentally, it also ranks #1 in incarceration. One of the highest rates of death penalty use. Seems like even the threat of the death penalty is not much of a deterrent.
Yes, it's fair when dealing with 100K + cities. The catch is 100k, any individual cities below 100k will be inaccurate.
Same argument example you're using for 2/3 of the 2 million city are in middle/affluent class could be the same way in the 50K city.
Using the rate in a hypothetical manner in regards to cities having another city's rate & population is still misleading.
Hypothetical speaking if Chicago was the same size of NYC and maintain It's current Tally trend then it would be at 8.8 per 100K, if Baltimore was the size of Chicago's populous then it would be 11.4 per 100K.
I agree it's not a hard concept to understand and yet it's misused when defining the difference between said cities. There's more context in percentages of those compared cities.
This is why what you're saying doesn't work:
1)Rates aren't "hypothetical". They are given by using the same mathematical formula for every city. They are fact-based from the actual numbers a city presents to the FBI...
2)While there are many smaller cities that have higher annual violent crime rates, I will highlight two in particular: Youngstown, Ohio, and Fort Myers, Florida, both of which have a population of less than 100,000...
For the decade-to-date of 2010-2015 using the FBI UCR numbers, Fort Myers has an annual average murder/murder rate ratio of 14/21.61; Youngstown's d2d is 19/27.62. Those are the facts based on the actual numbers. The question I have for you, is if cities under 100,000 should be tabulated with a different formula, what do you propose that would provide an accurate depiction of the murder rate in these cities?
Youngstown in particular is notorious for violent crime and murder and this decade had 25 murders in 2010, 22 in '12, and 19 in '15. These are monstrous numbers for a city with fewer than 65,000 people. You cant say, "we'll the 2015 murder rate was 19", because then, you're not giving a rate in correlation to the population, you're just providing the absolute number that anybody can see anyway. Do you understand how this works?
It would appear to me that you have a large city bias because you're from a large city and are intent upon making your own "formula" for cities smaller than Chicago. For those of us who've lived in smaller cities, it is not the least bit questionable that Youngstown or Fort Myers are more dangerous than Chicago...
I've lived in all size type cities from Los Angeles to Elmira, New York. Many cities in between. So I have the benefit of perspective of a town's violence regardless how "small" it may be. I can tell you right now, South Central LA has some very turbulent areas and statically has a murder rate between 23-27/100k, but there have been several cities and many hoods in cities smaller than LA that I without question found to be rougher than anywhere I ever saw in LA...
Lastly, the fact that we can break up cities by specific areas--ie Englewood Chicago or Watts LA--, that can be done with every single place, so a point of Englewood having a 277 murder rate isn't exactly breaking news. As been mentioned before, if we went neighnorhood-by-neighborhood in St. Louis, Baltimore, or anywhere else, we'd find hundreds of neighborhoods or zip codes with violence rates comparable or worse than anywhere in Chicago...
Murk got a good point but stats are just stats of what happened to put into computable perspective. I believe perception is reality so whatever you feel when there is your reality and that differs from each person. No doubt there's tiny hoods in the small cities bangin harder than big city hoods but what sets big citys apart are the size of the hoods. Yall can argue sheer numbers don't mean **** but when you're ground level you got swaths of danger going for miles around you vs. little hoods of "small cities". If your car broke down in the heart of South Central LA or southside Chicago then you're probably worse off than in a small town ghetto. Perception perception
If your car breaks down in Chicago, you will do the equivalent of the Mogadishu mile. You will have to run and shoot your way to the redline to get to the northside.
Chicago PD will not save you. My cousin works for CPD and says cops are deliberately not being proactive and letting citizens fend for themselves!
Don't believe me? Go to secondcitycop.com to view the mentality of CPD right now!
1)Rates aren't "hypothetical". They are given by using the same mathematical formula for every city. They are fact-based from the actual numbers a city presents to the FBI...
2)While there are many smaller cities that have higher annual violent crime rates, I will highlight two in particular: Youngstown, Ohio, and Fort Myers, Florida, both of which have a population of less than 100,000...
For the decade-to-date of 2010-2015 using the FBI UCR numbers, Fort Myers has an annual average murder/murder rate ratio of 14/21.61; Youngstown's d2d is 19/27.62. Those are the facts based on the actual numbers. The question I have for you, is if cities under 100,000 should be tabulated with a different formula, what do you propose that would provide an accurate depiction of the murder rate in these cities?
Youngstown in particular is notorious for violent crime and murder and this decade had 25 murders in 2010, 22 in '12, and 19 in '15. These are monstrous numbers for a city with fewer than 65,000 people. You cant say, "we'll the 2015 murder rate was 19", because then, you're not giving a rate in correlation to the population, you're just providing the absolute number that anybody can see anyway. Do you understand how this works?
It would appear to me that you have a large city bias because you're from a large city and are intent upon making your own "formula" for cities smaller than Chicago. For those of us who've lived in smaller cities, it is not the least bit questionable that Youngstown or Fort Myers are more dangerous than Chicago...
I've lived in all size type cities from Los Angeles to Elmira, New York. Many cities in between. So I have the benefit of perspective of a town's violence regardless how "small" it may be. I can tell you right now, South Central LA has some very turbulent areas and statically has a murder rate between 23-27/100k, but there have been several cities and many hoods in cities smaller than LA that I without question found to be rougher than anywhere I ever saw in LA...
Lastly, the fact that we can break up cities by specific areas--ie Englewood Chicago or Watts LA--, that can be done with every single place, so a point of Englewood having a 277 murder rate isn't exactly breaking news. As been mentioned before, if we went neighnorhood-by-neighborhood in St. Louis, Baltimore, or anywhere else, we'd find hundreds of neighborhoods or zip codes with violence rates comparable or worse than anywhere in Chicago...
1. I didn't say rates were hypothetical, your example was hypothetical. So I just continue on with your hypothetical analysis.
2. Per 10,000.
3. Incorrect. I'm from a city that's smaller than yours most likely. No bias against any city nor the stats but don't take the perception of a city being more "dangerous" than etc city. Like FBI stated " Don't used these reporting to make comparisons due to a variety of causes, etc.".
4. Congrats on your travels, I been through different places buy not lived in them. Largest populous I've visited so far is Memphis ( numerous times) and largest metro I've lived in was Nashville ( Antioch).
5. You can breakdown neighborhoods of MOST cities but you're going to have a challenge with certain cities below 50K. Most likely you will find rate comparisons on a neighborhood to neighborhood but not Tally wise.
6. Anything more?
Last edited by Sharif662; 12-18-2016 at 08:47 PM..
Reason: Incorrect spelling.
@Sharif, You're right about how the FBI cautions using the UCR numbers. Instead, I use the numbers in sync with personal experience to paint the picture. We've both been to Memphis, that's a good example, and I lived there. Some of the worst hoods I've been around are in Memphis...
@medweed, I've actually had the car break down in a wild hood in a smaller city lol, when I was 21 in 2010. It's an experience I'd love to share but it probably isn't for this website, as it entails a different type of lifestyle I was leading and is rather graphic!
Double shootings in both South End Newport News and Southside Richmond resulted in one killed yesterday. Newport News has ties it's body count from last year...
@Sharif, You're right about how the FBI cautions using the UCR numbers. Instead, I use the numbers in sync with personal experience to paint the picture. We've both been to Memphis, that's a good example, and I lived there. Some of the worst hoods I've been around are in Memphis...
@medweed, I've actually had the car break down in a wild hood in a smaller city lol, when I was 21 in 2010. It's an experience I'd love to share but it probably isn't for this website, as it entails a different type of lifestyle I was leading and is rather graphic!
Louisiana has been #1 in murder rates since 1989. Coincidentally, it also ranks #1 in incarceration. One of the highest rates of death penalty use. Seems like even the threat of the death penalty is not much of a deterrent.
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