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There is a lot more to crime than just murder rate. A lot of "minor" quality of life issues became worse under de Blasio, such as the homeless problem.
While this is true, the overall crime rate has dropped under De Blasio.
I don't like the mayor, but have to give credit where due. It's the safest big city in the country, and getting safer by the year.
I think little of the recent crime changes, positive or negatives are the result of the mayor's policies. And recent year to year changes are small enough to be explained with random variation; though any small uptick the New York Post-types would blame on the mayor.
Felony assault (which includes slashings) is at about the same as two years ago year to date:
Murders are down a lot from last year at the same time, but 4% lower than the year before; early 2015 had a relatively high murder rate. Shooting incidents are down somewhat. They could go back up, it's not unlikely for a three month period to vary 10%. For a smaller area, such as just Manhattan, a change in murder rate of 45% in a five month period is meaningless
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Assuming murder rate follows a poisson distribution, and the murder rate was unchanged from last year (11 murders in this time period in Manhattan), there's a 5.6% chance there would be at least 16 murders by chance alone. Of course, the number of murders last year in Manhattan in Jan to mid May may have been lower than usual by random chance as well, so 11 is a bad assumption.
Austin neighborhood in Chicago
Population:98,514
Homicides:20
Garfield Park neighborhood
Population:20,567
Homicides: 12
Kind of crazy seeing the neighborhood populations too.
Are those for 2016?
I read an article that says that almost all homicide victims in Chicago were marked by the police as "potential victim" and like 95% of them had prior arrest... So it is not like innocent people are getting killed, it is criminals killing each other... On disturbing fact : The city council wants to increase sentence for violent offence including the new police chief (who is black) and ... If true then wow... Black officials oppose such measure...
Emptying prison is a "nice"thing but if it is to put violent people back on the street to commit murder then no, lock them up and throw away the keys
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