Which neighborhoods have the most potential? (Tucson: middle-class, sales, real estate)

[swbell6]

To all you armchair real estate agents and pros, too: Which Tucson neighborhoods have fallen the hardest price-wise AND have the most potential to recover value and be safe and stable neighborhoods?

Armory Park downtown? Iron Horse? Barrio Historico? North side? There are so many iffy little neighborhoods in Tucson but I'm wondering where the next Sam Hughes or Blenman-Elm will be. Let's say 2-5 years from now. All opinions welcome (especially those attached to facts).

[vjsoto]

I'm thinking it's wise to stay away from real estate as an investment for the next couple of years. With house prices continuing to fall it's hard to say when prices will hit bottom, and it's even more of a gamble to try to guess which areas will recover short term, and which areas will take years, if not decades to recover. If you're into gambling, do the research, pick a nice neighborhood with the fewest REOs and roll the dice. There are no guarantees.

[russyboy]

A lot of the neighborhoods you mentioned are historic trendy areas. I have been looking at these places for years and they are still greatly over inflated price wise. It is fairly easy to use Zillow.com and look at properties in an area and see what the sales history of that property is. You can also use the Property Assesors website to look at previous sales. Nothing like seeing a property that sold in the late 90's early 2000s for 80 or 90k still selling for 300k today. Trendy areas had lots of the flip-this-house mentality and are still trying to hang on to high prices. Given this I dont think you will likely see those prices go up at all for many years to come.

Personally I like areas such as Rita ranch,prices are reasonable the school system there is highly desired and it is not that far from Davis Monthan which to me means as military personnel start returning to Davis Monthan from overseas those with families will be looking for homes and Rita Ranch will i believe greatly benefit from this due to both its location and school system.

[coatimundi]

If I had the capital, I would buy a house in Tucson right now as an investment because prices are just that good and there's still a good inventory of existing homes. However, you will need to sit on it for at least ten years to make any sort of profit. Maybe twenty years. Hard to tell.
The suburbanites will disagree, but Downtown Tucson is really shaping up into something special. I've been shocked by the speed of the change over the past year. Any reasonably-priced new construction in that area, as well as the existing housing within walking distance like in Armory Park, I think has a very high potential for major increases. It didn't take as much of a hit as other areas (I have a friend in Armory Park del Sol, and they fared okay), so it would be a little pricier than other areas of town.

The north side would be the last of the areas you mentioned I would choose for an investment. Anything north of Speedway and west of 6th Ave is still considered a little sketchy. There are some college students living around there, but I would anticipate that to be the last place where gentrification would occur.

[banddranch]

I agree that the days of speculation in residential real estate are over and best to buy for your long-term needs and perhaps look at rental duplexes, that sort of thing. Like all cities, the close-in neighborhoods are faring the best in keeping their value and because of that you're less likely to get a good deal in Armory Park, Sam Hughes and the other premium downtown neighborhoods. For long-term value, I like the solid middle-class neighborhoods near the major retail streets (Broadway, Speedway, etc.) - they've fallen more in value than downtown, but not as much as farther out and they tend to have all the infrastructure and amenities - nearby shopping, restaurants - already in place parks, libraries, bike paths - all the essential pieces of urban living. I also agree with the comment that downtown Tucson is looking good lately. Good entertainment, lots of buildings fixed up with investments from the Rio Nuevo redevelopment district (not popular in conservative circles around here, however). In any case, great time to buy in Tucson IMHO.

[Salpointe59]

I'd look at Drachman between Campbell and Country Club.

[swbell6]

Originally Posted by coatimundi

The north side would be the last of the areas you mentioned I would choose for an investment. Anything north of Speedway and west of 6th Ave is still considered a little sketchy. There are some college students living around there, but I would anticipate that to be the last place where gentrification would occur.

Actually, I'm looking for sketchy neighborhoods that are on the rise or have future potential.

One problem with the north of UA areas is all those big dorm style apartments going in. They really change the character of the neighborhoods.

Personally, I love the historic downtown neighborhoods, but I don't think I could handle the noise from the trains day and night. Downtown is getting better, I agree - I have to give a lot of credit to Meet Me at Maynards (even though the restaurant's food is highly overrated and overpriced, IMHO).

There are some great neighborhoods around Glenn and Fort Lowell - even horse properties (which is way out of my budget). I like some of the neighborhoods between Campbell and Country Club, especially the mid-century brick homes. I'll have to check out Drachman there.

Isn't there a nice restored neighborhood south of 22nd Street, near Santa Rita Park?

Anyone else want to weigh in?